Some Good News for the Gov from PPP

by | Oct 1, 2015 | 2016 Elections, Carolina Strategic Analysis, Features, NC Politics, NCGA, NCGov, Polling | 6 comments

According to Public Policy Polling, Governor McCrory is locked in a tight race with prospective Democratic nominee Roy Cooper in the 2016 gubernatorial race. But unlike previous surveys, McCrory actually posts a narrow lead, 44-41. The governor’s approval is 35/47.

So why is this good news? Because typically we’ve seen McCrory’s numbers nosedive while the legislature is in session, bottoming out around the time they adjourn. If the pattern continues this year, then the governor’s numbers will gradually improve. McCrory looked very weak over the summer, when Cooper was outraising him and the legislature was overriding his vetos. But now, as legislators go home and the 2016 cycle is about to begin in earnest, the governor looks like a (very slight) favorite for another term.

Of course, there’s the chance that the governor’s numbers do not improve now that session’s over, in which case he will be in trouble. Roy Cooper is still unknown despite serving a decade and a half as the state’s attorney general. He has 51% name recognition and those who do know him tend to rate him more positively than not. Team McCrory is going to have to work to get those negative ratings up.

This weekend could be a critical juncture for the governor. With Hurricane Joacquin possibly making landfall and at the very least bringing heavy rain (and flooding) in the state, McCrory’s team will need to be prepared. The governor should leave his stupid hat at home – and if he has any plans to attend a horse race in Kentucky, cancel them.

6 Comments

  1. cosmicjanitor

    People’s sentiments don’t change as erratically as these questionable polls would like us to believe; next thing you know, Mr. Wynne will be selling real estate in this column.

  2. Mike L

    I noticed the PPP results for NC this week very much favored the GOP…..I mean really Hillary losing to several possible GOP candidates by 10 points? Burr leading potential Democrats by an avg of 9-10 points? Perhaps if people in the urban areas sit out in 2016, or if it was a non presidential year electorate…

    • TY Thompson

      PPP has never impressed me, so if I were McCrory, I’d actually be alarmed by this poll. Conversely and sadly, I don’t think they’re too far off the mark with the Burr numbers. Cooper is the best the Dems have right now, they should talk him into focusing on the much more important Senate race.

      • Brad

        Got to think having a Democratic governor is more critical in the short term along with picking up enough seats to make the NCGA veto proof. Senator change is welcome but will not affect NC in next few years like stopping the disaster NCGA is causing.

  3. Apply Liberally

    Nice quietly glossing over of the gov’s disapprovals, Mr. Wynne. Being a GOP’er, you couldn’t bear to own up and note PPP’s wording of “Only 35% of voters are happy with the job he’s doing to 47% who disapprove (of the gov), making it 26 months in a row now that his approval numbers have been in negative territory.”

    • An Observer

      Maybe Wynne is quietly hoping for that Carolina Comeback. There are people that look at numbers and there are people that look at results.

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