Some of the hottest political races of this cycle are happening in Wake County. Wake just passed 1,000,000 residents, so it’s no surprise that this county is going to be seeing a lot of action, both now and in the future. Both parties are going to be heavily organizing here because a lackluster performance in Wake County on either side could have major consequences. A sample of some of the hotter races:

U.S. Senate Both candidates need a strong performance in Wake County. Tillis won’t win here but he probably needs to keep it within single digits. If he doesn’t, that’s evidence of problems in urban areas throughout the state. Hagan won here by almost 16 in 2008. But Richard Burr actually carried it, by a single point, in 2010. Obama won by 14 in 2008 and 12 in 2012. McCrory won by the skin of his teeth. The latest poll on Wake County alone shows Hagan leading by 12 with likely voters. Due to problems in the NC Democratic party organization, the Hagan campaign is coordinating through the Wake County Democratic Party.

County Commission Republicans have controlled the County Commission here since 2010. In the second-most populous county in NC (and the one with the most voters), that’s a big prize. All four GOP commissioners are up for reelection this year, and Democrats need to win just one seat to regain control. PPP’s poll on Wake County showed all four incumbents trailing for reelection. The perception that Democrats are favored to regain control has helped the challengers in fundraising. If the GOP still has control after the November elections, then a Republican tidal wave has hit.

NC-02 Democrats really hope Clay Aiken can pull off an upset in the 2nd district, part of which extends into the Wake County suburbs. For Aiken to do so, he’s going to need an outsized performance here. Even if Aiken crushes Ellmers here (which is unlikely), he’ll still have a difficult path to winning.

SD-15 An open seat in the State Senate. The Democrat is former Mayor of Raleigh Tom Bradshaw. The Republican is businessman Johnny Mac Alexander. This is a seat that leans Republican but in the right circumstances can be won by a Democrat. The X factor is how voters respond to the GOP legislative agenda. The other X factor is whether we see a GOP wave or not. This one is competitive.

SD-18 Held by Republican Chad Barefoot, this was the most expensive Senate race in North Carolina in 2012. Democrats have a strong candidate in nonprofit director Sarah Crawford. Democrats and third-party groups have poured money into this race, attacking Barefoot on teacher pay and fracking. Barefoot won by a large margin two years ago but probably won’t enjoy the same advantage this year.

HD-41 This will probably be the single most expensive House race this year. Republican Tom Murry is the incumbent in a swing district which has the largest share of independent voters in the entire state. He’s being challenged by Cary Town Councilwoman Gale Adcock. Democrats are encouraged by their prospects here but Murry has raised a lot of money and will be tough to beat.

HD-49 This seat was Rep. Fulghum’s, after his death Gary Pendleton, who won the Republican primary to succeed him, was appointed to finish out his term. The Democrats have nominated diabetes educator Kim Hanchette. This district went for Mitt Romney in 2012 but Hanchette is a strong candidate, making this a true toss-up race.

If Republicans have a good night on November 4th, Tillis will crack 45% in Wake County and the GOP will sweep all the competitive General Assembly races. But if Democrats have a good night, Hagan will win here by double-digits and Democrats will pick up a whole bunch of legislative districts based here, while sweeping the Commissioners races. There’s a whole lot at stake so Wake County will definitely be a county to watch on Election Night.

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