State of the race

by | Oct 5, 2016 | Editor's Blog, Politics | 10 comments

The vice presidential debate last night will have little impact on the presidential race. Not that many people watched it and both sides are declaring victory. The debate last week, though, clearly hurt Donald Trump.

In North Carolina, every poll taken since the debate has Hillary Clinton leading. The Real Clear Politics average has Clinton up by 1.3% in the state. Of the dozen polls listed in September, Trump is only leading in three. There’s plenty of time for that to change, but, for the time being, Clinton has the edge.

In the Senate race, Burr and Ross seem to still be knotted. The RCP average in the state gives Ross a 0.4% advantage. That’s not enough to give either candidate an advantage. However, given the deficit Ross has overcome, she certainly has built momentum. Of the last four polls, she’s led in three. She trailed in almost everyone before September.

In the governor’s race, Roy Cooper seems to be settling into a solid lead above five points and well outside the margin of error. The RCP average has him at 4.6% above McCrory. Of the 14 polls listed since the beginning of August, Cooper leads in 11. In eight of them, his margin is more than five points.

HB2 has hurt McCrory badly. North Carolina’s national reputation is taking a serious hit and he’s getting the blame. McCrory lacks the political skills to navigate the tricky political environment in North Carolina. He’s been pushed far to the right by the legislature and lost his identity as the moderate Southern mayor who was elected in 2012. The state is sharply divided along urban and rural lines and McCrory can’t bridge that gap.

With five weeks left, the political environment in North Carolina could still shift to favor Republicans. It would have to be dramatic to move the governor’s race into the Republican column, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility. The presidential and senatorial contests could move either way. Trump, though, needs to score some points soon if he hopes to recover.

Down ballot races will be largely dependent on the political environment. Most will have trouble really driving a message with all of the clutter on the airways. We’ll see another $33 million in Senate ads alone in the coming weeks. For Council of State races, the political environment and the field operations of the two parties will have a bigger impact on their outcome than anything else. Right now, that gives Democrats the advantage but that’s just a snapshot of today. Next week could be a different.

10 Comments

  1. Ebrun

    Any legislation sponsored by a U.S. Senator is public information, not insider information ,which is just the opposite. You are alleging that the Senator had a conflict of interest. If that were true, wonder why your liberal Democat Senators and special interest groups haven’t filed an ethics complaint against the Senator? Seems like you are just pushing another partisan political slur.

  2. Ebrun

    That’s another big Democrat LIE. Burr clearly stated in the debate that it is (and already was) illegal for Members of Congress to use inside information to profit from the stock market.

  3. Ebrun

    Our resident liberal pundit (and Congressional candidate) wrote:

    “With five weeks left, the political environment in North Carolina could still shift to favor Republicans. It would have to be dramatic to move the governor’s race into the Republican column, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.”

    Looks like the shift is occurring. Last two statewide polls show McCrory ahead and Burr well ahead. Even Trump is within the margin of error. McCrory and Burr both outperformed their Democrat opponents in the televised debates.

    The persona of Cooper was clear in the debates– a career politician of little substance beholden to liberal interest groups and spouting partisan cliches, while McCrory projected the image of a competent executive well-versed on the issues and determined to boost the state’s economy.

    Ross came across as a big-mouthed liberal ideologue whose far left views are out of sync with the mainstream voter in NC, while Burr projected an image of a relaxed and knowledgable moderate in tune with the state’s conservative bent.

  4. Ebrun

    There will be no need for “bathroom police.” It will be (and always has been) outraged women that respond to male perverts invading their space. But under the Charlotte ordinance, there would be no penalty for would be sex offenders taking advantage of LGBT access laws.

  5. Ebrun

    There will be no need for “bathroom police.” It will be and always has been outraged women that respond to male perverts invading their space. But under the Charlotte ordinance, there would be no penalty for would be sex offenders taking advantage of LGBT access laws.

  6. Betsy

    McCrory and the Repubs have stepped in it and it will cost them their control. Vote early or in November to get these Neanderthals (apologies to a branch of our ancestors) out of office and out of our lives. I’m with Karen. What do I do now if there’s a line of 20+ women for the ladies room and an empty men’s room? I used to use it and lock the door. Will I now be arrested for not being able to hold it?

    • Ebrun

      Don’t be so dense. The only way HB2 will be enforced is when some male pervert hangs around women’s bathrooms, locker rooms or fitting rooms (which has already happened at several Target stores), and the women being watched or harassed complain to the local manager, security guard or nearest law enforcement officer. Under the Charlotte City LGBT ordinance, law enforcement would have no authority to intervene.

      • Betsy

        Ebrun: you sound like the dense one. This law is stupid, expensive and makes NC look like homophobic, scared little bumpkins. It needs to be voted out.

  7. Karen

    I’ve never figured out how McCrory was going to enforce HB2. How is he going police the bathrooms across the state to prosecute people who fail to follow HB2? Is he planning on placing a genital inspector in each bathroom across the state? I would think that would be extremely costly. No decent loving parent is going to let their child go to a public restroom alone to begin with. I used to take my boys to the ladies’ restroom if their dad wasn’t with us. What does a mother do now? I hate to tell you, governor, there have been transgender folks going to restrooms for a long time. There are stalls in bathrooms. If it is a single stall the doors have locks on them. I have visited the mens’ restroom on occasions in a crowded place when the ladies’ room was backed up. Guess that’s out now. I guess you thought this politically motivated bill would win you votes, governor. All it’s done is cost average people a lot of jobs. Of course, you don’t care. You have money.

  8. JC Honeycutt

    It’s not only McCrony’s insistence on clinging to HB2: it’s also his whiny insistence that anyone who disagrees with his untenable position is a big mean bully trying to pick on him and make little girls share a bathroom stall with a 250-lb. hairy rapist. (And BTW, if a little girl used to be a little boy, she should be forced to share a bathroom with said rapist.) You can’t fix stupid, and McCrony seemingly gets more infatuated with his stupidity on a daily basis.

Related Posts

GET UPDATES

Get the latest posts from PoliticsNC delivered right to your inbox!

You have Successfully Subscribed!