Rasmussen: Hagan leads by 6. Civitas: Hagan up 3. Elon: Hagan up 4. American Insights, which has been called “the first homegrown polling firm with a Republican slant”: Hagan up 10.
What’s going on? Well, Hagan leads. That much is assured. The last poll to have Tillis leading was a YouGov poll, which went into the field starting August 18th. The RCP polling average right now shows Hagan +3.7. Without YouGov in the mix, her lead is closer to 5 points.
Already, there’s a bunch of hand-wringing from conservatives. “Tillis is a bad candidate!” “This should have been a slam dunk!” “If only we had nominated Greg Brannon!” But it’s still too early for the GOP to be hitting the panic button.
Right now, Hagan is killing Tillis on the airwaves. Right now, Tillis and GOP allies are basically letting her control the entire narrative. Tillis is set to ramp up advertising in the next few weeks. The polls will probably close.
At this point in 2004, Erskine Bowles still had a solid lead on Richard Burr in the U.S. Senate race. WSJ reported that surveys showed Burr behind by 7% to 9%. He ended up winning the race by 5. Former GOP chairman Jack Hawke had this to say: “The Burr campaign has let Bowles position himself in the middle and now they’ve got some catching up to do.”
Sound familiar? I’m not predicting a Tillis victory, I’m just saying even the folks who are most attuned to politics tend to think things are set in stone, that things can’t change. That means Republicans shouldn’t hit the panic button yet, and Democrats shouldn’t get complacent. I don’t think there’s anything to suggest that the dynamics of this Senate election have changed in any way. Hagan is still running in a tough environment and in a state where Democratic dropoff in midterms is greatest. She’s probably at her ceiling right now in the polls. I think the Hagan people would agree.
That said, I would rather be Hagan at this point in time. She’s run a very effective campaign and has adeptly executed the only strategy that could ever get her a second term: eviscerate Tillis. But right now her poll lead is built on saturating the airwaves with Tillis unable to respond in kind. That is going to change, and the polls will tighten. This is going to be a close race, and I doubt anyone on either side is going to dispute that.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Dems must not get complacent! We’ve gotten Kay out front, but if the contemporary carpetbaggers and tea sippers get desperate they’ll get meaner. Desperate men do desperate things–remember ole Jesse and crowd. We don’t need a late race caution either, 4 tires and top it off!
Comparing this to Bowles is wrong for a number of reasons. Bowles saw his support erode after Kerry/Edwards pulled out of NC. That’s probably the biggest reason. Also, national mood also didn’t go well for Kerry/Edwards and it hurt Bowles; in this case you don’t have a presidential to create that level of macro effect. Finally, Bowles ran that terrible breast cancer ad that Burr turned around on him with a very effective (and well-publicized) response.
Can’t wait to see the drag that the Tillis record has in General Assembly races down the ballot.
Well said, Troy. I’ll add that he further limited women’s reproductive health options; extended future pollution of Jordan Lake by giving a lucrative contract for unproven technology to a GOP donor’s company; cut the university system budget 3 years running; increased taxes on our electric bills; and unconstitutionally choked off protests at the legislative building.
Oh, and he prevaricates grandly in his campaign ads.
Right you are Mick! I had that utilities tax in mind when I commented on shifting the tax burden. I’m surprised he didn’t raise the sales tax on food too.
If it’s bad for the people and good for himself and his contrite base, he’s wrapped around it like a honeysuckle vine in a game fence.
Thommy boy was in Hickory on Saturday stumping to a crowd of approximately 75, according to the Hickory Daily Record. Lets look at what he had to say to them.
“And now we’re raising money to answer the negative ads and the false ads you’ve been seeing.”
Now we know why he was in Hickory.
“This is going to be the most expensive race in the country — $100 million. Thirty-five million has already been spent,”
We know what his goal is.
Then the promise/hook:
“We are in a great position to have manufacturing come back into this country and back to the southeast specifically,” he said. “Boeing and Caterpillar are relocating in this part of the world to manufacture here and export to Europe.”
Just not in North Carolina.
Then his vision for the future of the planet and what he thinks of corporate polluters.
“Tillis credits this move to a number of factors including cheap energy, a condition he intends to maintain by blocking the kind of stringent Environmental Protection Agency regulations that would raise energy prices.”
And finally, his plan and vision for the future.
“I have three and a half years of records of fulfilled promises,” he said. “We fulfilled the promises we made about what we would do in Raleigh if we got elected, and we have done that.”
Yes he did. He ran up a $200+ million deficit, he gutted education funding, he siphoned off money for private schools with zero educational goals and standards, threw people off unemployment because he thought they were ‘lazy’ and he and Paddy teamed up to cut up the Federal “charge card”, and shifted more tax burden to the working class. A group already suffering under the weight of job loss and stagnant economy. Thommy didn’t think they had enough to worry about or over. Oh, and refused to expand Medicare for 500,000.
What a guy.
Tillis should have let someone else do the lying for him. Instead he gets on camera and says he and the legislature got a 7% raise for teachers, everybody knows that’s a distortion. Meanwhile, all Hagan has to do is point out all the pandering to the lunatic fringe and the 1% that his legislative record is replete with.
Stick a fork in him, he’s done. Women don’t like him, minorities don’t like him, the working class doesn’t like him, and extreme conservatives either won’t show up or will vote for the 3rd party candidate. He’ll be lucky to carry his own legislative district because of the private toll road debacle.
Mick has this right. There’s only so much a condescending jerk can do to polish himself up into a silk purse. More relentless attacking to paint Hagan as a commie doesn’t pass the smell test. Voters may not be geniuses, but they’re not hapless suckers either.
http://www.bluenc.com/tillis-tailspin
So, John, you might want to explain why “Tillis unable to respond in kind,” and is just now getting “set to ramp up advertising in the next few weeks.”
Hasn’t this race always been viewed by just about everybody as highly competitive and a toss up? Haven’t AFP and other conservative leaning sponsors been providing the Tillis campaign with funding right along? Why must Tillis wait for a new freshet of funds?
Sorry, but I think that it’s less about not having ad funds and more about a failed campaign strategy and an uncharismatic candidate with a questionable legislative record that is causing this fade in polling.
The first debate showed no great thumping of Hagan, but instead an erosion of Tillis support. Also, Tillis ads to date are coming across as tired, poorly timed, and too indirect in their attack angles. Focusing on (1) an opponent’s 7-year-old state senate record, (2) on the fact that his opponent is in the same political party as an unpopular POTUS, or (3) on a new federal program (ACA) that is fading fast as a perceived issue of great immediacy and concern is failing to grab the public’s attention.
IMO, the reason Tillis is not filling up the ad-sphere is because his handlers/advisors are trying desperately to remake him and his PR to reflect a more likable and more energetic guy, one who directly criticizes Hagan’s congressional record..
No more calls. We have a winner.
And a replacement for this “analysis” by John Wynne.
“either side”. FYI the number that comes after 2 is 3.