Supreme Court: Redistricting Commissions A-OK

by | Jun 29, 2015 | Carolina Strategic Analysis, Democrats, Features, NC Politics, NCGA, NCGOP | 12 comments

Today’s ruling by the Supreme Court keeps hope alive for a nonpartisan redistricting commission here in North Carolina. The question before the Court was whether or not the legislature could delegate drawing districts to commissions, or if that power resided solely with them. In what was probably a good thing for Republicans, the Court said redistricting commissions are A-OK (while striking down commissions would have helped Republicans reshape districts in Arizona, Democrats in California would have been more than willing to return the favor, drawing a number of GOPers out of their seats).

Striking down independent commissions would have given North Carolina Republicans cover for continuing to keep redistricting power in their hands. Now, Democrats can argue there’s no excuse for the state not to have an independent redistricting commission in place by 2020. The problem? That would mean politicians voluntarily ceding power, and that’s not likely to happen.

In addition, some Republicans privately feel that Democrats had over a century to gerrymander the state for themselves. Why should they change the rules of the game just because Democrats have had a sudden change of heart about gerrymandering just as the GOP has taken the reigns of power?

To this, advocates of a redistricting commission argue: you don’t know who’s going to be in control in 2020. If it’s the Democrats, you better believe Republicans will regret not taking redistricting out of the hands of the legislature – just as Democrats are kicking themselves now for now following through with independent redistricting in the past.

The problem with that is we have pretty good reason to believe that Republicans will still be in control in time for the 2020s redistricting. That’s because, you guessed it – the legislators in charge of such a process will have been elected from districts drawn by Republicans. The chance of Democrats taking back the General Assembly in 2020 looks just as likely as their chance of doing so next year: very, very unlikely. Democrats aren’t even aiming at majorities. Instead, they just want to eliminate the supermajorities.

Because of this, a lot of Democrats concede there’s not much chance of an independent commission in place for 2020. Instead, they’re trying to get enough Republicans on board to support implementation of a commission in 2030. By that time, partisan control of the state will be much more of a question mark, and very few currently-serving legislators will still be around then. With the date being so far away, they hope that the GOP will accept a nonpartisan commission on its merits. And the gerrymandering problem will be solved.

Of course, if you’re a Republican legislator, there is no gerrymandering problem, and therefore not much of an incentive to solve it. Whether it’s implemented in 2021 or 2031, the prospect of the General Assembly passing redistricting reform looks quite bleak.

12 Comments

  1. Lee Mortimer

    John is mistaken about what the Supreme Court was deciding in the Arizona case. The issue was not “whether or not the legislature could delegate drawing districts to commissions.” The Arizona redistricting commission was created by a voter-initiated referendum and completely bypassed the Arizona legislature in drawing Congressional districts. What has been proposed in North Carolina is a “delegated” process that would be created by the legislature rather than imposed on it by the voters — as in Arizona. So, regardless of how the Supreme Court ruled in Arizona, it would not have affected the North Carolina proposal.

  2. Charles Hogan

    Nonpartisan redistricting commission plus paper ballots is now the only way give the North Carolina Election any creditability at all. Until this is corrected, one can assume election Fraud on behalf of the Republican party that are now in control of all the instruments of election. So there isn’t any need to consider the 2016 election valid unless these corrections before hand. Now that the” Al Gore” election fraud specialist are running the election. Election Fraud is the real issue , Not Voter Fraud as they deceptively implied .

  3. Rational Observer

    Gerrymandering is terrible, I think we need to take this up if the democrat party gets to take over our governing bodies again. As much as they hate the practice now, I am sure it will be the first thing on their plate and it will be perfectly fair and square to not benefit any one party.

    • Apply Liberally

      Gerrymandering is terrible, I think we need to take this up not only well before the Democrat party gets to take over our governing bodies again, but also definitely before the Republicans might get another chance to use high-tech data and mapping software –as well as a mischievous sense of self-preservation– to deny voters a more direct voice in their government. As much as the GOP loves the practice now, I am sure the first thing on their plate, should they lose the majority in the NCGA, will be to say that an independent commission is the only fair and square way to redistrict.

  4. Geeman

    The point everyone misses when they say Democrats had the gerrymander pen for years is that, for most of that time, there was only one viable party in North Carolina, the Democratic Party, and it encompassed most of the conservative vote as well as the liberal and moderate vote. Even if you had had nonpartisan redistricting back then, it was not only the early 1970s that the Republicans would have been able to elect more than just a few candidates.

    • Matt Scheer

      That is a good point. It is clearly supported by how the Democrats did in statewide races during this period. How many Republican governors did we elect?

      That said, it is difficult to groom candidates when you are shut out of power, a fact Democrats may be worried about in the future. They still have a bench because they retain some of the Council of State. Will they be able to replace these people as they move on. The AG race might be an important bellweather for the Democratic bench.

    • Nortley

      It should also be noted that Democrats did not gerrymander to the egregious extent that Republicans have. Even when Democrats fully controlled the redistricting process Republicans managed to win control of the State Senate in 1994 and both the House and Senate in 2010.

      During much of the 80’s and 90’s Republicans were able to win close to half of the congressional seats in NC. Under Republican gerrymandering Democrats currently only have 3 of the states 13 congressional seats and Republicans have veto proof majorities in the state legislature.

    • Charles Hogan

      Yea but with KochCo Mega bucks going into High Technology the Repugs have been able Fine tune gerrymandering down to the last half voter. Beside McCrory contracted the same flake that did Florida that was so badly skewed that the courts down there declared it unconstitutional and are currently making them re-draw the lines. It is facing court here as well. so they hired repug lacky to do the drawing. strike one .

      Then the contracted a company that got busted for route the last presidential election results directly throught the republican national headquarters servers before being routed on to the official election center.strike two remember the digital voting machine crashes ? that was a sing of hacking …. the only honest election here will be paper ballots . And then just barely

      the real issue here is Election Fraud not voter Fraud

  5. Jeff Lakin

    I think the issue with gerrymandering is that while yes, it’s been a tool of the majority for years, which in NC means over a century of Democratic gerrymandering, the tool has become exponentially more powerful over the past couple of decades.

    The age of big data and complex software, combined with our increasing polarization, makes it possible to not just eke out a possible or even probable advantage in a few key districts, but to systematically divide and conquer the strongholds of the opposing party until single party domination is all but guaranteed.

    The Democrats in NC have had this power for the latter part of their rein, and while you could argue they used it more judiciously than Republicans, that’s neither here nor there. The point is that its a power that has reached a point where no one partisan interest can possibly wield it and maintain good government that’s accountable and responsive to the people.

    Obviously, an independent commission will have its own pitfalls and trappings of power, but at the very least it gives the people a fighting chance of real representative government.

  6. Norma Munn

    Gerrymandering is wrong, always has been, and always will be. Both parties are guilty, given the opportunity, as they have proved over and over again in state after state. What both seem to overlook is increasing my vote’s power or impact is done by diminishing another person’s voting impact.

    Democracy cannot and does not flourish under those conditions.

    I’m tired of the mess this basic unfairness ultimately creates. Reminds me of the mostly discarded version of punishment, i.e., an eye for an eye, and so on and so on — centuries of feuding have resulted.

    Anyone running for public office who cannot stand up and clearly say that gerrymandering should end and pledge to do so will not have my financial support, nor my vote.

  7. Apply Liberally

    “By that time (2030), partisan control of the state will be much more of a question mark…..

    You missed your chance to explain why this will be the case, John. Maybe it was intentional?

    Might you be hearing those demographic “footsteps” creeping up on the GOP, i.e., all that continuing in-migration (mainly from the North) and increasing population growth in and around our urban areas? When it happens, it will make gerrymandering to conservative advantage and retaining majority control in the NCGA all the more difficult fro the GOP.

  8. Matt Scheer

    For full disclosure, I am a partisan Democrat, but one who has been talking about gerrymandering since before 2010. I believe gerrymandering is one of the chief problems in our democracy.

    There is a problem when it is conceivable that one party could win 55% of the statewide votes in state legislative races and not gain control of the legislature. Not only is it possible, it is likely. Does anybody think that if the Democrats captured 55% of the statewide legislative vote they would gain control of either house?

    The way districts are drawn, most of our legislative elections are determined in party primaries, making legislators more accountable to the extremes than the people. McCrory and the legislature find themselves at odds as we approach 2016. McCrory finds himself worried about the general in November and an electorate that will be somewhat representative of the people of North Carolina, while the legislature finds itself more worried about the small sliver of the population that votes in primary elections.

    These are major problems for our state and country.

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