SurveyUSA conducted a new poll on the NC-Sen Republican primary on behalf of the Civitas Institute. The poll is good news for Thom Tillis, who needs to clear the 40% hurdle to avoid a runoff. Right now, he’s at 39% with a fifth of the electorate still undecided. Let’s get to it:
Republican primary
Numbers in parentheses are change in support from last poll.
Tillis – 39% (+12)
Brannon – 20% (+7)
Undecided – 19% (-19)
Harris – 15% (+6)
Grant – 2% (-3)
Kryn – 2% (+2)
Snyder – 2% (-3)
Alexander – 1% (no change)
Bradshaw – 1% (-1)
Some big changes here. What happened? Well, Republicans are paying attention now. Before, they were just dialing random numbers on their phones. They had no clue who the candidates were. Now, they’re watching the news, reading more about the candidates, and they’re making up their minds. Most importantly, they’re seeing the TV ads, and that’s benefiting the candidates who are up on the air. Those who aren’t … not so much.
The biggest gainer here is Tillis, who is up 12 points from last poll, which was conducted last month. If those undecided voters break down the same way as their decided counterparts, then Tillis will win the primary with 48%, almost a majority.
Now, who are these undecided voters? Some of them have seen the ads, know a little about the candidates, and still don’t know what they’re going to do. Some of them might not vote at all. And some of them aren’t even paying attention. But at this point, they’re not much of a concern. All Tillis has to do is avoid saying something stupid at the next debate and he should be fine. According to the poll, he can lose almost every one of these undecided voters and still win outright on May 6th.
Heather Grant’s bad result here is because she’s not up on the air. But the debates and the press covering it gives her just as much stature as the top three, which means she’s got nowhere to go but up. She’ll probably end up with double-digits or somewhere close to it on primary night.
Favorable/Unfavorable (Republican primary voters)
In parentheses, net favorability. Next number, change from last poll.
Tillis 56/23 (+33) +11
Brannon 39/7 (+32) +12
Harris 35/7 (+28) +14
Republicans like their top three candidates. Tillis has highest unfavorable rating, but highest favorable also, and generally as the candidates have gotten better known, Republicans have started to like them more. There is not yet any one candidate that is hated by either segment of the party, which could change if there is a runoff.
Tillis leads in every region. Mark Harris does best in Charlotte, where he is the pastor of a megachurch. Brannon is strong in the Triangle. With Republicans, Pat McCrory has a 69/10 rating. Interestingly, his rating with his party is lowest in the Greensboro area, the site of the coal ash spill.
Bottom line: Tillis is in a strong position to win outright on May 6th. If he does, then Kay Hagan’s road to reelection becomes a bit tougher. But other polling outlets might have a different view of the race. We’ll wait for PPP’s poll next week for confirmation of Tillis’s numbers here.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
0 Comments