Jim Duncan, who hopes to knock off Renee Ellmers in the Republican primary next May, ought to be taken seriously. That’s the conclusion one should draw from the latest financial reports. Last quarter, Duncan raised over $200,000. True, half of it was from his own pocket, but that doesn’t render his haul unimpressive. The strong fundraising quarter for Duncan, former chair of the Chatham County GOP, significantly increases the likelihood of national Tea Party groups entering the fray to back him up.

The biggest hurdle he’ll have to overcome is perennial candidate Frank Roche, whose meager fundraising haul was absolutely dwarfed by that of Duncan and Ellmers. But Roche was the Ellmers’ conservative challenger last time around and still has some name recognition, threatening the possibility of a consolidated anti-Ellmers vote.

So long as Roche stays in, all it will take for her to be renominated is for her to show up, as it’s almost unheard of for an incumbent Representative to receive under 40% of the total vote, which is the threshold for a runoff here in NC. (The key for Ellmers is preventing a runoff. She does not want to be in a low-turnout, mid-summer contest where the only people voting are activist conservatives.) Moore and Randolph counties, areas where Ellmers has been weak in the past, will be key battlegrounds.

Interestingly, the Ellmers campaign apparently intends to portray Duncan as a “Connecticut carpetbagger.” That’s not likely to fly in the 2nd district. While Duncan has a noticeable Northeastern accent, there are lots of people in the 2nd who are transplants from other parts of the country (including Congresswoman Ellmers). In fact, Duncan’s background could be an asset with voters who might be able to relate to his personal story. The other line against Duncan is that the Chatham County GOP lost the Board of Commissioners because of his tenure. Basically, the narrative the Ellmers campaign wants to push is that Duncan is some loser from Connecticut.

But in the end, the campaign won’t be about Jim Duncan. It will be all about Renee Ellmers and her ability to convince conservatives that she’s one of them. In the wake of the partial-birth abortion controversy back in January, that was very much in doubt, but time heals most wounds. And she’ll be backed with millions of dollars to define herself to the voters. Perhaps most importantly, it looks like there could be a split in the anti-Ellmers vote. Roche will probably win only a slice of the vote if he stays in, but that slice could be crucial in determining whether or not Ellmers’ career in Congress continues.

John Wynne

John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.