It seems that no matter how the district is drawn, North Carolina’s Second Congressional District is bound to attract an interesting contest. This morning, the Tea Party’s Greg Brannon filed to run in the redrawn 2nd, which already featured an incumbent-on-incumbent battle (Renee Ellmers vs. George Holding).
Brannon, you might remember, lost the Republican U.S. Senate primary against Richard Burr less than a week ago. But he did fairly well in Southern Wake County, beating Burr in several precincts. Southern Wake has a lot of voters and if Brannon can capitalize on his support here, things could get interesting.
Brannon’s entry complicates things for George Holding, whose path to victory involved unleashing his huge campaign account on Ellmers and pointing out that he’s the more conservative of the two. Now, there are two conservative alternatives to Ellmers. With no runoffs, Ellmers could win with only a fraction of the vote, if there’s a split in the anti-Ellmers vote.
As for Brannon himself getting elected to Congress, count me skeptical. If Brannon poses a threat to either Holding or Ellmers, he’ll find himself the target of negative attacks that he might not be able to respond to. Brannon, despite running two statewide campaigns, has never been vetted. Neither the Tillis nor the Burr camps saw fit to touch him. Ellmers and Holding will be more than happy to do so if he gets traction.
The primary, held in early June, will see abysmal turnout. The campaigns will be talking to a tiny portion of the electorate, generally the most motivated and informed voters. It will be interesting to watch the race develop.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Don’t remember Lincoln losing that much. Won a congressional race once. Won several for Illinois legislature. Defeated for US Senate but that was not by vote of the people. Did he lose re-election to Congress. Speaking of winning with small part of vote: Lincoln was elected to presidency with 39% of the vote!
Will this loon ever get it? He is a loser, as a politician and an investment consultant, and should stick to promoting over-the-top conspiracy theories that only certified fools would believe.
Kind of like another famous loser named Lincoln. Maybe he’ll finally win one, too.
When will he get tired of losing. It increasingly seems that Brannon is the Bad News Bears of Tea-Party challenges.
***Losing?***
Punctuation matters.
Despite saying he’s not a professional candidate, Brannon seems destined to give himself that label. Brannon had the same problem this year that he had last year: he can quote chapter and verse of the Constitution, but he has no idea how to take his knowledge and translate that to meaningful policy. At several of his rallies, all he did was bash Burr the whole time. Don’t get me wrong, Burr isn’t exactly a great conservative and deserves much of the wrath he has incurred , but when you can’t articulate one policy at all, I’ll vote against you every time. Plus, I’d rather Meadows or Hudson run for the seat in 2022.
I sure hope he wins!