Originally, I planned to write about the fight for women’s votes in the North Carolina Senate race. A story in the News & Observer today outlines how both sides are wooing women voters. A poll briefing from Women’s Voices Women Vote-Democracy Corps earlier this week shows Republicans have a difficult path to closing the gender gap as long as Democrats are talking about pocketbook issues.

Instead, the national media’s coverage of elections is on my last nerve. In particular, an article by CNN’s Jake Tapper uses a single anonymous source, a Democratic consultant, to speculate that Democrats have really already lost the Senate. He offers no solid analysis and relies on tired cliches like, “But midterm elections are generally more difficult for the party that holds the White House” to make his point.

He may be right but why not give some analysis? In North Carolina, for instance, Kay Hagan is not just fighting “a wave,” she’s leading a backlash. Republican policies in the General Assembly led to approval ratings in the gutter for the legislative chamber Thom Tillis led. In Kansas, Pat Roberts may prevail, but Greg Orman is being assisted by the failure of Sam Brownback’s Republican Revolution.

While Mark Udall and Bruce Braley may be in tough fights in Colorado and Iowa, respectively, Democrats have been fighting hard in these states for years. They have established field organizations that carried Obama to victory in 2012. And in 2010, Colorado Senator Michael Bennett bucked the largest national wave in 70 years, in large part, because of their sophisticated ground game.

And Democrats suddenly have an opening in Georgia. David Perdue better find an answer for outsourcing jobs in a state where the unemployment rate is heading in the wrong direction. If the election turns into a referendum on his record, instead of Obama’s, he’s in trouble of losing a state where Democrats have been getting closer every election cycle for a decade.

And finally, yesterday, the DSCC announced it’s spending $1 million in South Dakota. What’s up with that? That’s a ton of money in a state with cheap media markets and a population smaller than Wake County. In 2012, the other Dakota made Heidi Heitkamp their junior Senator against long odds. At the very least, Republicans are going to spend resources in South Dakota that could go to other states. 

I’m not a journalist. I’m an erstwhile political consultant and blogger and here’s what I think. In Colorado and Iowa, Cory Gardner and Jonie Ernst better have more than a point or two lead going into election day because Democrats have established field operations that are worth as much as five points.

In Georgia, if Nunn can grab control of the message going down the stretch, Perdue has a battle to maintain his lead. In Kansas, Orman is an attractive candidate for exactly the reason Tapper’s Democratic operative says Democrats are in trouble: “You can see why Eric Cantor went down — people are just so anti-Washington.” That’s a powerful argument against an incumbent who calls Arlington, VA, “home.” And in South Dakota, with three prominent candidates in the mix, the situation is anything but stable.

Republicans may take Montana and West Virginia without much fight, but they are going to have to run real campaigns elsewhere. Certainly, the national environment is bad for Democrats but localizing races has worked well for them so far in North Carolina. If they can win in Kanas, South Dakota or Georgia, they can lose Louisiana, Alaska and Arkansas and still keep the Senate. Stealing a seat is not common, but it happens. Just ask Sen. Heitkamp.

Maybe Tapper’s right and the Senate is about to go to the Republicans. But he’s supposed to be a journalist. He shouldn’t be relying on a single anonymous source and tired beltway conventional wisdom. Tell me something I don’t know.

Thomas Mills

Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >