The ad wars for the U.S. Senate campaign have begun. Both Richard Burr and Deborah Ross are on TV now. One is a positive spot, the other is negative.

The negative ad is Ross’s. Although it doesn’t feature scary music or a foreboding narrator, it does hit Richard Burr. To Ross’s credit, the ad is creative, depicting Burr as a fat cat Washington politician. The message: Richard Burr is part of the problem in Washington.

Burr’s ad, on the other hand, is strikingly positive. It involves Senator Burr’s work providing educational opportunities for at-risk children. There’s no arguing that that’s a good thing. Message: Richard Burr is an example of a politician who’s doing something right in Washington. It’s also an ad aimed squarely at swing voters who split their tickets and a way of conveying that no matter what his opponents might say, Richard Burr is not Donald Trump.

The ads themselves tell us where the Senate race stands. Richard Burr has the advantage; Deborah Ross needs to go hard-negative and hope for a collapse at the top of the ticket in order to prevail. The fact that Ross hasn’t gone up with a positive “introductory” ad is evidence that she plans to go hard negative to win.

Expect Burr to continue with the positive themed ads, then go negative around mid-September. Burr has a strategy and he’s sticking to it: run an aggressive campaign post-Labor Day, followed by a three-week sprint to the finish line in November. It worked well for him in 2004 and 2010. We’ll see if it works in what looks to be a dramatically different environment in 2016.

11 Comments

  1. Maurice

    The August 30th CBS/YouGov poll of 1,088 likely voters included twice as many somewhat conservative and very conservative respondents than somewhat liberal and very liberal ones (11/20% and 11/23%, respectively). The poll included an above average number of African Americans (22%) but few Latinos (2%).

    Deborah Ross polled 1% ahead of the republican. This is surprising considering that the the average of polls shows Ross 2% behind and the particularly high percentage of conservative voters in the poll. Does the presence of the 22% of African Americans alone explain Ross being ahead in this poll?

    • Paul Patriot

      All with the socialist, entitlement, “what can government do for me” will vote for Ross, completely oblivious to the loss of liberty and increase of governmental slavery they are creating for themselves.

      Lets see what one of our founders had to say, wisdom that Deborah Ross is diametrically opposed to.

      A government big enough to give you everything you want, is big enough to take away everything you have. Thomas Jefferson

      The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not. Thomas Jefferson

      “My reading of history convinces me that most bad government results from too much government.” Thomas Jefferson

      “No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms.” Thomas Jefferson

      “The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government.” Thomas Jefferson

      “The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.” Thomas Jefferson

  2. George Moore

    As pointed out by, I believe Lawrence O’Donnell on MSNBC, the black children in Burr’s ad were not from the featured black minister’s school in Raleigh but were actually African school children. It was a stock video rather than a video produced for the ad.

    • Apply Liberally

      That is correct. The video of black kids in schools used in Burr’s ads was downloaded from a “stock footage” website. Not NC footage.

  3. larry

    So John, tell me, do you feel it? Now it is simply the beginning to perfume the airwaves…soon the breezes will pick up and the salty smell will dominate. Yes that big BLUE tsunami is coming . The first step to the final polar realignment come 2020.

  4. TY Thompson

    “To Ross’s credit, the ad is creative, depicting Burr as a fat cat Washington politician.”

    I’m guessing her ad didn’t show the fat cat tooling down Constitution Avenue in his Volkswagen Thing. 😉

  5. Absolm Flazed

    McCroy sadly is worse for NC than Trump would be for the US.
    He doubles the pay of select top officials immediately in 1st term.
    He actually cut teacher pay in 1st year, raised it by 0.035 % in 2nd year, and raised it to $50,000 for only a select few in 3rd year.
    He’s has lied about the facts in Cooper’s Department,
    Lied about water quality and coal ash
    Passed HB2 without a thought as to the $1.5 billion he has and will lose
    for the state and isn’t done yet.
    This guy is not a Governor he is Duke Power’s Minister of State.
    Somebody help Cooper out in pointing this out in adds.
    Please!

  6. Mr David B Scott

    The fact that Burr endorsed Donald Trump tells the electorate all it needs to know about who he is and his values. It’s the Burrs in Washington that have created the paralytic gridlock and myopic worldview. Burr may be politically smart, but not wise or in touch with the North Carolinians who are concerned about our state and our world.

    • Bob Gunn

      Mr. Scott’s commentary is right on target. Mr. Burr, if you lie down with dogs you get fleas – plain and simple.

    • Paul Patriot

      Sooooooooo, would you rather have Burr endorse Clinton?????

      I am confused, how would Burr endorsing the lying, cheating, mobster Hitlery be better than Trump??????

  7. Apply Liberally

    Just what we need. A review of political ads by a political partisan.

    Note to Wynne: The challenger to ANY incumbent has to run two kinds of ads: (1) those that burnish the challenger’s positive traits/credentials and (2) those that hit the incumbent where s/he is weak or assailable. Meanwhile, an incumbent’s ads can simply brag about what a walking saint s/he has been. EXCEPT, of course, if the race is polled as being tight toward election day. That’s when we’d see incumbent’s like Burr, and all the dark money groups supporting him, start to throw the mud around.

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