The Fix political blog has moved North Carolina up in their Senate rankings. They now deem it the fourth most-likely seat to switch parties. A month ago, it was fifth most-likely. North Carolina is behind Louisiana, Montana, West Virginia, and South Dakota, making Hagan the second-most vulnerable incumbent after Mary Landrieu (and not counting Walsh in Montana, who was appointed, not elected).

Not much has changed in the race itself. According to polls, Hagan still has a small lead. The Huffington Post poll tracker says Hagan is up on Tillis, 44%-43%, based on an average of polls. They also note that, based on this, they are 66.3% confident that Hagan actually does lead Tillis.

The change in The Fix’s ratings is based more on what’s going on in Arkansas, where Mark Pryor is looking like a much stronger incumbent than people initially thought. Right now, Hagan is the more likely of the two to go down in November. Of the red state senators, she has the most favorable electorate (though it’s not that favorable), but is the least-established in her state. She’s basically Generic D. Crossroads and other groups are making her out to be Obama Lady. That’s not a good thing to be defined as in North Carolina in 2014.

According to PPP, registered voters have a 42%/52% approval of President Obama. Filter for likely voters and his approval is even lower. And in 2010, the last time we had a Senate race, support for the Democratic nominee tracked strongly with Obama’s approval rating in the state. Hagan will certainly do better than Elaine Marshall; she is guaranteed financial support from Washington Democrats. She will almost certainly do worse than she did against Elizabeth Dole, when she won by 9 points.

If this race is about Kay Hagan, she loses, plain and simple. Sort of like how in 2012, a referendum on Obama meant that he was a one-term president. If this race is about Thom Tillis, on the other hand, she can win. Mitt Romney won NC 50/48, with an electorate that favored Democrats. The electorate in 2014 will be whiter, older, more conservative, and more Republican, so Hagan will have to put out all the stops. An electorate that resembles 2010, or anything close to it, probably spells her defeat.

Turning Tillis into Mitt Romney won’t work. Instead, she’ll have to make Tillis the face of the NC legislature. It won’t be enough to say, Tillis has all this baggage from being Speaker. She’ll have to make him really, really objectionable. There are a few moderates suburban types in Charlotte and Raleigh that supported Obama in 2008 and Romney in 2012; these are the types of people she needs to win over, while also outperforming Obama in rural counties.

The groups supporting Tillis have already made their case. Hagan = Obama. No further explanation needed. If Hagan wants to win, she needs to make her case. Tillis = the state legislature. And then she has to explain why that’s a bad thing.

John Wynne

John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.