Donald Trump is the frontrunner for the Republican Party nomination. For the first time, insiders not only think he can win the nomination, but the White House as well. The idea is not so far-fetched. Already, he has proven to be a resilient candidate, seemingly impervious to the laws of political gravity that should apply to all the presidential contenders. He is doing a better job at campaigning than most of the other individuals who have been doing this all their life.
Right now, expectations that Trump will nosedive are based on notions that his support in the polling comes from “whiskey courage”. People will tell a pollster, “Yeah, Trump!” but political observers bet that once in the voting booth, voters will come to their senses and support the “real” candidates.
While that may turn out to be the case, it’s a dangerous assumption for those managing the campaigns of the other candidates. So far, most of the predictions about Trump (including my own) have been wrong. People thought he wouldn’t run and the whole presidential flirtation was a publicity stunt. They were wrong. They thought he wouldn’t release his tax returns. They were wrong. They thought after the McCain comment (which now looks remarkably innocuous in hindsight) that he was doomed. And people really thought he was done after he went after Megyn Kelly and was perceived as making a comment referring to menstruation. So it would not be surprising – nay, it’s highly probable – that assumptions that Trump will crash and burn will be proven wrong as well.
What about President Trump? While some might concede that he could win the Republican nomination (“they’re a bunch of crazies, after all”) they would scoff at the idea of the blustering billionaire making it all the way to the White House. But there is a way forward. Right now, he’s only trailing Hillary Clinton by 3 points in swing state Iowa. If her unfavorable numbers continue to climb, her ceiling of support might decline to the point where it’s impossible for her to be elected – even against an extremely flawed GOP opponent. In that case, the GOP nomination will be tantamount to election.
For the record, I am not predicting that Trump will win the White House, the Republican nomination, or even a single primary. He may well drop out before any votes are counted. But I would warn people against excluding the possibility that his candidacy will prove enduring. He has already defied the predictions of just about everyone. He may well defy them still.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Those who are counting Sanders and Trump out may be counting their chickens before they hatch. To paraphrase Mark Twain: “The reports of Trump’s death have been greatly exaggerated!”
I’m wondering what kind of a deal we’d have gotten with Iran if Donald Trump had been the negotiator instead of that babbling idiot John Kerry?
The Hildabeast is tanking in the polls, and may be criminally indicted on her e mail scandal. Biden may get in (which is why Obama & Jarrett have given the green light to the federal investigation on Hillary).
I was not a Trump supporter in the beginning, but I’m liking him more and more. One thing for sure, if Trump gets in the White House, you’ll not hear him apologize for America, nor bow to any foreign leaders (like the current resident). .
The latest CNN poll has Trump leading with 24% support, compared to Big Brother’s 13%
“Ending the Drug War”
When the fact that the Clintons and Trump have been so buddy buddy, it becomes difficult to see any real difference between them as a class of power brokers. You have not heard anything pragmatically appealing about illegal workers in the US. It amazes me that simply splitting tax receipts with nations of origin and the US, is never on the table. Ending the Drug was would definitely diminish the reasons to flee Mexico where 10 thousand a year are killed in the drug wars. So why not simply go for the best entertainment.
The fact that Trump is leading GOP polls makes all Republicans look like idiots. Really…why would anyone in this country think that this guy is a viable candidate? He’s a screwball. Get your sh*t together, GOP. v(Or don’t! That will be great for us Dems.)
You may be right, but I don’t think very highly of polls. Purely anecdotal, of course, but of people I know who would vote in the Repub primary, Trump isn’t even a consideration.
If “The Donald” were to win the nomination in my mind the candidates that would prove to be the best to debate him on the Democratic side are either Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders. A Sanders vs. Trump debate would likely set viewing records and push turnout in an election as well.
“For the record, I am not predicting that Trump will win the White House, the Republican nomination, or even a single primary. He may well drop out before any votes are counted.”
No, you are not predicting campaign success for The Donald, John. You are just being an reluctant apologist for his success thus far and into the future, Listen to yourself! “The idea is not so far-fetched”……”he has proven to be a resilient candidate”…..”they would scoff at the idea….. but there is a way forward”….”He has already defied the predictions of just about everyone. He may well defy them still.”
I submit you well know that the guy reflects the worst in the GOP base. Intolerant, bigoted, without empathy for the struggling lower/middle class, and obsessed with the morality and amassing of wealth.
There are not enough votes in that fringe base, nor enough votes in the center who would support Trump and stand with those fringers, to win a national election.
He’s still your and the GOP’s worst nightmare, no matter how you spin it, John.
Correct, we want Trump around as long as possible. Analysts predict he will drop from frontrunner status in the polls within 8 weeks.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/candidates-in-donald-trumps-position-have-a-terrible-track-record/
It’s even more clear that a larger and larger portion of your base doesn’t like the things HRC is saying about trust, emails, servers, women, military folks,
and Benghazi, “There are answers, not all of them, not enough, frankly. I’m still looking for answers,” , Status of Forces in Iraq, “Let me just give a little bit of history, not too much, but context. When — President Bush decided, before President Obama became president, that we would leave Iraq in 2011, the United States would end its combat mission, unless the Iraqi government agreed to ask us to stay, under the same conditions that we have all around the world. It’s called a status of forces ingredient. I was involved in a lot of the efforts to come up with what our offer would be. And we made such an offer to then Prime Minister Maliki. And he would not accept the status of forces agreement.
Some now say, well, you should have made him or you should have — but that’s not the way it works. You have to — if you’re going to having American troops in harm’s way — and we knew Iraq would be quite dangerous for a long time, unpredictable, at the very least — you have to have the host government, in this case Iraq, say, OK, here’s what we want. We’re signing this agreement which will protect American soldiers.
We didn’t get that done. And I think, in retrospect, that was a mistake by the Iraqi government. And others are looking at that, including in Afghanistan now.
The second point I would make is, I think it’s imperative that the government of Iraq, currently led by Maliki, be much more inclusive, much more willing to share power, involve all the different segments of Iraq.
And I believe strongly that, if Maliki is not the kind of leader who can do that, then the Iraqi people need to think seriously about the kind of leader they need to try to unite Iraqis against what is a terrible, imminent threat from these most extreme terrorists.”
Syria, ” I wrote a whole chapter about Syria in my book, “Hard Choices.” And I call it a wicked problem, because it is. And in the book, I obviously write about what is now publicly known, I recommended that we do more in the very beginning to support the moderate opposition, because I believed, at the time, that they would be overwhelmed by Assad’s military force and that they would open up the door to extremists coming in…”
and on guns: “I’m well aware that this is a hot political subject. And again, I will speak out no matter what role I find myself in. But I believe that we need a more thoughtful conversation. We cannot let a minority of people — and that’s what it is, it is a minority of people — hold a viewpoint that terrorizes the majority of people” Thought police anyone?
Now, there’s a one woman clown car…and I didn’t even mention Vince Foster…ooops, yes I did….
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ….ha ha ha ha ha …..ha ha ha ha ha…..
“It’s even more clear that a larger and larger portion of your base doesn’t like the things HRC is saying about trust, emails, servers, women, military folks.”
What exactly did Hillary Clinton say about “trust, emails, servers, women (funny given her long history of fighting for women’s rights), military folks” that Democrats supposedly didn’t like her saying before you ventured off into the standby Faux News CONservative liner notes of Benghazi and Vince Foster?
I second larry’s comment above. It comes as no surprise that you, a member/supporter of the world renowned embarrassment known as the Republican Party, are truly laughable.
I agree, Nona. “dberwyn” is a laughingstock, who has to use tired echo chamber buzzwords and one-liners to make his unoriginal points.
Really? “Benghazi!”?? LOL. How many Republican-led congressional committees have to conclude that no collusion or misdeeds took place before the airheads drop their obsession with that matter??????
And he fails to see that the GOP hands out, seemingly every day, more and more ammunition to those who opposed them:
– 50+ votes (and wasted time) against ACA, a law found twice to be constitutional that gives millions more Americans healthcare coverage;
– Total intransigence to passing a bipartisan Senate bill on immigration reform;
– resistance to the SCOTUS-approved civil right of two people getting married;
– wanting to take down Social Security and Medicare;
– seeking to deny a woman’s right to reproductive choice;
– deliberately and treacherously attempting to undermine on-going negotiation of the USA with a foreign nation.
I could go on………
And that’s the sad part about all this, Progressive Wing.
We could go on and on and on, as long as Republicans get their marching orders (along with some hefty payments) from the likes of the Koch brothers, Sheldon Adelson and Art Pope, and as long as Citizens United is around, it could get to the point of never ending.
Big money with the power to promote propaganda by feeding into people’s preconceived fears is where it’s at today. Never mind the facts, just tell people who vote against their best interests what they want to hear, and profit big from it. That’s something Republicans refuse to see.
My worst political nightmare! In what country do I seek political asylum? Seriously, how could one live in this country if that were the outcome of an election? A difference of opinion is one thing, electing a president whose policy ideas border on fantasy or idiocy is quite another.
Sort of like 2008, and 2012? Hope and Change? Keep your doctor? Fantasy or idiocy?