At the end of the 2013 legislative cycle, Democrats felt sure there was a backlash brewing against the Republicans in the legislature. Moral Monday protests riled the Democratic base and captured the imagination of the national media, particularly MSNBC and the New York Times. However, the low-information swing voters who decide elections weren’t paying that much attention.
As usual, they tuned into the electoral politics late in the game. They might not be satisfied with Republicans in the General Assembly but they ended up voting against Obama. That’s what they tend to do in midterm elections–focus on federal issues, not state ones.
For Democrats, they should see the election for what it was and not read too much into their loss at the top of the ticket. Compared to other states, they did well. Our Senate race was closer than any but Virginia–and Virginia wasn’t supposed to even be in play. Part of the reason it was so close is that Hagan’s campaign kept the electorate focused on Tillis’ record in the General Assembly up until the final month. In addition, Democrats picked up three house seats despite the “Picasso” of gerrymandering.
Republicans, for their part, shouldn’t read the election results as a validation of their legislative agenda. They almost lost a US Senate race in a GOP wave because of it. Pat McCrory, for his part, seems to understand that. He has warned his party against spiking the ball.
Both parties should recognize that North Carolina is an evenly divided state. We have a new US Senator going to Washington without the blessing of a majority of the people. The backlash Democrats thought they saw was really a measure of the intensity of their base. They need to harness that energy, but not fool themselves into thinking they have broader support than they do. Republicans should realize that they made sweeping changes and not all of them are going so well. In 2015, they would be wise to focus on fixing their mistakes and protecting their gains instead of pushing forward with more controversial legislation.
Voters aren’t enamored with either party. They want to see tangible improvements in their lives and their communities. In 2016, we will see a fierce fight in the state. Pat McCrory is not going to be the pushover Democrats thought, but Roy Cooper will be a formidable opponent. If Democrats find an opponent for Richard Burr, expect the Senate race here to be one of the most competitive in the nation. Finally, expect to see a flood of presidential candidates touring the state over the next year.
The 2014 election didn’t really change much in North Carolina. It just proved that North Carolina is still the most purple of states.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
It is really difficult for me to see NC as a purple state given the GOP’s dominance in the General Assembly and winning the the US Senate race with a candidate as weak as Tillis. I know this was a “wave” election, but Hagan should have won this one. The state’s Democratic Party is weakened by infighting and poor leadership. I look at my state and see a sea of red for some time to come.
I am newish to NC – and I have no idea how to read this electorate. I have no idea why voters rewarded Tillis’ dreadful work as leader of the NC House with a ticket to DC. I have no idea why someone like Virginia Foxx has an apparently permanent grip on her seat.
NCGOP has spent the last couple of years bashing education. Their policies are ideologically driven, which is as one would expect. What I didn’t expect – the lies that popped up in time for the election – lies that framed their policies in progressive language. (Tills was a PTA president! NCGOP invests in education!
The depth of their cynical dishonesty is truly astonishing. And that voters rewarded their lies with wins is really depressing.
This is truly a very odd place.
As an NC native and lifelong Democrat, I think you hit the nail on the head. I don’t understand my home state any more. Maybe we do deserve what we are gonna get, sadly.