What’s Kay Hagan’s path to victory? How does Kay Hagan get over 50%? I don’t think she can. Her path to victory probably runs through Sean Haugh. If she does win this November, it will only be with plurality support. Something like 49% Hagan, 46% Tillis, 5% Haugh. Either way, 49% is her ceiling. I’ll explain why shortly.
We’ve all heard the theories about how Hagan can win this thing. Depict Tillis as the face of the North Carolina legislature. Run a culture war campaign and ramp up turnout among women and minorities. Attack Tillis mercilessly and paint him as a right-wing extremist who is out of touch with the middle class and non-traditional people.
That’s all well and good, and the polls show Hagan up by about 3 points now, so a Hagan victory certainly seems possible, even more likely than not at this point. And yet, if you look at the numbers, Hagan really shouldn’t have any business getting reelected (this is a reflection of political dynamics and not on her tenure in Washington).
Let’s start with some facts. First of all, voters are much more concerned with national issues than state issues. While progressives hate what the legislature is doing, most of the public is ambivalent. Ill-advised though it was to say this publicly, Thom Tillis had it right when he said that most voters don’t pay attention to what the legislature is doing. It doesn’t play a role in their day to day lives.
If you want proof that the state isn’t seething with outrage over the Republican legislature, take a look at the latest PPP poll. While the legislature itself has a dismal approval rating, the generic ballot measure is much more important. And there, Republicans lead by two points, 43-41. Now, maybe Democrats will sweep all the undecided voters and this will be a banner year for them and they’ll win the legislative popular vote by 18 points, but I doubt it. It’s much more likely Republicans will maintain their present advantage, or even watch it grow – this was a registered voters poll.
So, while Triangle-area liberals might detest the moves the legislature is making, the rest of the state either doesn’t know or doesn’t care what’s going on in Raleigh. Now, there are a lot of issues Hagan can draw from the General Assembly to use in her campaign, but she’s going to have to educate people first. She has her work cut out for her.
On the other hand, Tillis has a very potent issue whose name is Barack Obama. There are probably many more voters who are motivated to vote against the Obama agenda than there are those who want to vote against Republican legislators. And Tillis doesn’t have to do any work on this front. Obama is unpopular and voters don’t need to be told why they shouldn’t like him. The key is just getting them to show up in November. That shouldn’t be very hard to do.
Now, let’s say Hagan runs a fantastic campaign and is able to rebuild the coalition Obama built in North Carolina. Keep in mind that African Americans, young people, and single women are much more likely to stay home during the midterms. For Hagan to get those Obama voters to turn out for her would be historic. But even then, she would still be short of victory.
Remember: in 2012, a pretty good year for Democrats, Romney still managed to carry North Carolina. Now, voters in this state historically will give Democrats more support downballot than at the presidential level. This held up as late as 2008, when Kay Hagan outperformed Obama by 8 points. But that’s back when she was a generic Democrat. Now, as I’ve argued before, she’s Barack Obama in a pantsuit.
Look at the Democratic presidential primary in 2012 and Hagan’s primary in May for proof. You’ll see an almost perfect correlation at the county level between Democratic support for Obama and Democratic support for Hagan. And their statewide totals were quite similar. Obama won 79% of Democrats (21% voted no preference). Just last May, Hagan won 77% of them. Yes – those Democrats voting last May were probably older and whiter. But that’s likely to be true of the statewide electorate in November too. Much hay has been made of a potentially more energized African American bloc, and while that’s good news for Hagan, the only thing we can draw from that is this election probably won’t be as bad for Democrats in 2010. No matter. It doesn’t have to be for her to lose. Even if the electorate looks like 2012, Tillis should have a very good shot at this.
The way I see it, Kay Hagan’s going to end up with somewhere between 43% and 48% of the vote. 43% is the Democratic floor and is what Elaine Marshall received in 2010 in a terrible year for Democrats. And 48% is what Obama got here back in 2012. We’re probably looking to an environment that’s somewhere in between – a good-to-great year for Republicans but not a historic one.
And that brings us to Sean Haugh. He’s probably essential to a Hagan victory scenario. If Hagan’s ceiling is really 48%, and should she get there through an excellent campaign, then Haugh will need to take 4% of the vote to “spoil” Tillis’s victory. That’s not much, but it would be a historic level of support for a Libertarian in North Carolina.
So, the case that Hagan is favored necessarily rests on two premises: (1) that voters care more about what’s going on in Raleigh than in Washington D.C. and (2) that this year, the Libertarian will get more than 3% on Election Day. Both of these phenomena are unlikely. The two of them happening at the same time would be extraordinary. For that reason, regardless of what the polling says right now, I would still bet on a Senator Tillis come next January.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
“4% of the vote to ‘spoil’ Tillis’s victory. That’s not much, but it would be a historic level of support for a Libertarian in North Carolina.”
Wrong. Libertarian Scott McLaughlin got 4% for Governor in 1992.
Bad Rubbish You’ve demonstrated clearly that you are immersed in the national regressive talk show echo chamber. By November, I suspect that voters will find whining about ACA and the IRS to be old and tired (mainly because the predicted collapse of the US economy due to ACA will not have happened, and there is no depth or smoking gun to the IRS story). And the GOP, due to their lack of action in Congress and their inhumane ideas for treating the kids while due process plays out), stands to lose more on the child immigration issue than the Dems or Obama.
But as always we will see. Not predicting Hagan victory, but if Tillis doesn’t suddenly transform himself into a charismatic non-bumbling candidate, she has a very good chance of winning.
Why do you think that the professional state-wide Dems didn’t wanna touch the Hagan campaign with a 10-foot pole?
In politics, they say one thing, and do another. You know, THEY LIE. Even “your side”. So watch what they DO, not what they SAY.
I assume the poll numbers are PPP, which have a history of predicting the end of the GOP and a complete landslide for every Dem. Just saying.
civitas also has hagan up 4 points
As I understand it, the professional state-wide Dems are in a shambles right now, which is disturbing, given the madness of the Tea Party in power. But that the state organization isn’t actively supporting Hagan may not be relevant.
It isn’t relevant, Someone…it’s better for her campaign to do as they are doing.
Tsk, tsk, geek! The state-wide Dems didn’t have a thing to do with the Hagan campaign DECISION to conduct a campaign without them – the NCDP has a chaos of its own – and its own doing. So there! on that point.
The PPP did conduct the poll, but the people polled were 47% conservative – so there! on that point also. Hagan isn’t toast – wait and see.
Then, pay attention to the NCGA now and in 2016. Never again will the voters let such incompetent thugs into that building on Jones St. And that’s a non-partisan effort.
It’s hard to speak truth to power… I recall in 2006, when it was obvious to everyone but the diehard GOP types, that the Dems were gonna sweep into power. The GOP people cussed and swore that the polls were wrong, etc. The true faithful are always deluded.
The next shoes of ObamaCare are about to drop. The employer mandate, specifically, will be a huge issues. Not to mention the announcement of next years prices for BCBS-NC. The scandals will get worse — do you really think that the GOP will relent from the IRS thing? Do you think that the VA thing will be on campaign commercials? And how about video of central American children in detention camps?
No, she’s toast. She got swept in with the Obama coat tails, and w/o that — or worse yet, with the toxic Obama coattails — she’s toast.
I notice you failed to address these numbers:
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Hagan’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thom Tillis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
also this:
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
so, in a poll with 42% conservative to 27% liberal respondents, hagan wins by 4 points.
The hill.com points to Kay Hagan as the example of the rise of the Southern Democrats http://bit.ly/1nfvWs6
PERFECT, JOHN!! Proves that anyone can manipulate data to their point of view – but only as long as they hide their data sources.
You lost me at “While progressives hate what the legislature is doing, most of the public is ambivalent.”
You are essentially saying that the public has paid scant attention to voter suppression efforts; less taxes on the wealthy (and higher sales and electricity taxes for all); the still-unresolved teacher salary issue and teacher exodus; the Dan River spill and a soft response to Duke-E waste clean-up; the approval of fracking; the excluding of 500,000 from Medicaid; arrogant/dumb statements so many GOPers including Tillis, Ruccho, Rabon, Tucker et al; and no distinguishable improvement of the NC economy. And you are wrong.
And if you think the public pays strict attention to national issues in a US Senate contest, and gives no attention to what a candidate has wrought and wrecked as a leader in state politics, you are wrong again.
That stuff interests YOU. Not the average voter. YOU. And it’s not like Kay has anything to do with that.
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the
General Assembly is doing?
Approve …………………………………………………. 18%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q8 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 55%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 Would you support or oppose a bill allowing
students to refinance old student loans that
have high rates at the current lower rates?
Support ………………………………………………….. 74%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q10 Do you support or oppose requiring existing
power plants to cut carbon pollution by up to
30%?
Support ………………………………………………….. 58%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q11 Do you support or oppose the fracking bill
recently passed by the legislature?
Support ………………………………………………….. 29%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q12 What do you think is the best way to fund
raises for North Carolina’s teachers: eliminating
teacher assistants, selling more lottery tickets,
or raising taxes on people who make more
than $250,000 a year?
Eliminating teacher assistants …………………… 12%
Selling more lottery tickets ………………………… 19%
Raising taxes on more than $250,000 ………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
It is interesting to see what little regard many people have for the voting public in North Carolina. We’ll see how this plays in November. I cannot believe the “average” voter is uninterested in the circus happening in Raleigh. But I am new to this state, and continually surprised by the insanity here.
Someone…Don’t believe what this writer says about the “average” voter – the description of which has changed in the past 1 1/2 years – due mostly to the behavior of those sent to Raleigh to represent them. The insanity you see is exactly why it took the GOP/TP party(ies) to have a go at it after 117 years. Stick around – you’ll see how much attention the average voter gives to their actions.
I’m left of Stalin, and anyone stupid enough to vote Republican in 2010, 2 years after Bush, isn’t likely intelligent enough to see what they’re up to now.
I totally agree, Mick. The author of this article is buried in 2010 and 2012. And, he obviously doesn’t understand a fired up female voter. This midterm election ain’t politics as usual in NC. Voters KNOW and they will SHOW. He needs to be prepared to have some crow for dinner come November. I’ll serve it.