I don’t believe Donald Trump will ever be president of the United States and neither should you. We will probably have a few uneasy days between now and November but Trump’s odds of overcoming structural obstacles in the electorate are daunting. And that’s not taking into account the blistering barrage he’s about to face from Democrats for the next five months. The Trump University fiasco is just the beginning.
The numbers folks have laid out the hill that Trump needs to climb to win the presidency. My friends at Lincoln Park Strategy say he has two paths to victory. He either needs to sharply cut into Clinton’s support among minority voters or he needs to win white women by at least 20 points. Given Trump’s rhetoric, he’s not going to cut into minority voters so white women are his best shot. However, he would need to win them by a larger margin than any presidential candidates except Ronald Reagan in 1984 and Richard Nixon in 1972, both landslide elections where Republicans won every state but one. That’s very unlikely.
For those that say everybody underestimated Trump in the primary, that’s not true. Everybody underestimated how screwed up the Republican Party has become. Most people believed that, eventually, Republicans would come around and nominate somebody electable. Instead, they’ve ceded power to a xenophobic and racist fringe that the establishment courted for years but kept at arm’s length when it came to real power. Trump didn’t win over conservatives or moderates. He expanded an ugly element that was already present in the GOP.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton’s support is not going to dry up and she’s not going to get indicted. Low information swing voters aren’t going to pay any attention to email scandals or Benghazi. Twenty-five years of mostly baseless or overhyped charges have reduced the constant hum of accusations against Clinton to unpleasant background noise. She’s already running a general election campaign, ripping into Trump, and she’ll clinch the nomination on Tuesday night. In all likelihood, Bernie Sanders will do what Clinton did in 2008: end his campaign shortly after the last primary.
Throughout his primary, nobody really laid a glove on Donald Trump. All that is changing now. Hillary Clinton and the Democrats will lay into him for the next five months, using the mounds of dirt that Donald Trump has left behind himself for the past 35 years or so. He’ll have a difficult time expanding his support to attract the super majority of white women he needs to win. In contrast, Clinton has been seriously battered by both the left and the right for decades but she’s still rolling and she’ll almost certainly roll into the White House, bruised and dented, in January 2017.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
You’ve got it wrong – its not that folks agree with Trump. There are less folks out there that truly believe in the wall than you want to state in your opinion. What you are witnessing is ‘disgust’ with the establishment and hope in a candidate that is clearly not establishment. There are many doubts that he can or will do half of what he states on the campaign trail. I’m not a
Trump supporter but I understand his popularity is due to incredible disappointment in elected politicians who have failed us on both sides of the aisle more than due to agreement or belief in his rhetoric.
There were always lunatics on the fringe of the far right – people who saw Communists under every bed or they feared that the poor and minorities had too much money (an oxymoron they believed.) Rich white people who hated black people. They believed that cutting taxes would increase federal revenue. They worried that the ability to exterminate human life ten or fifteen times over is not enough. Without a shred of evidence, they believed that Vince Foster was murdered by the Clintons and that President Obama is hiding his Muslim faith and his birth certificate. This is a short list of right wing whacky ideas. But there was always more to the Republican Party than those at the extremes.
For those people facts and evidence have never been necessary or welcome. Republicans from the Nixon and Reagan era were not all ignorant and incapable of critical thought. Anyone who read the writings of William F. Buckley, Jr.., knew that he was a lucid, powerful intellect who expressed his brilliance with rare literary artistry. He was no fool. He was not a clown or a buffoon. Richard Nixon had his enemies, but he was, by all accounts, a smart man, a learned man. He had serious character flaws, but he was not a dunce. Reagan was criticized for being no great intellect, but he did not have a small, mean heart. He brought massive charisma and excellent oration to the office.
Who are these Republicans who support Donald Trump? Republicans of a bygone era would not recognize these racists, these thugs, these brown shirts who meet at arenas hoping to beat a liberal bloody or to slap around a black man or woman. They yearn to beat down Muslims and Mexicans. They hate women and gay people with such enthusiasm. They are killing the Republican Party. The party of Lincoln, the party of fiscal responsibility, the party of patriotism is no more. These Republicans hate America. They hate Americans. They stand for nothing. They rally around the hatred of the first black president and prevent progress of any kind.
The last Republican president wiped out our financial markets, sent millions of Americans to the unemployment line, oversaw the foreclosure of 14 million homes, lied the nation into a war in the wrong country, caused massive deficits to finance tax relief for the few who were already rich, wiretapped our phones, tortured and murdered people in foreign countries.
But even George W. Bush, one of the worse American presidents, would be better than Donald Trump.
The lunatic fringe does not occupy the outskirts of the GOP. It is the Republican Party. Too eager to embrace the immature lunacy of the Tea Party and financed by self-centered, eccentric billionaires, the Republican Party has become the enemy of the American people.
Well said, Jay Ligon.
Strange to read so many people claiming “the American people hate” Hillary Clinton. It’s strange in particular because for the past 25 years — all the years during which she has been on the national stage — she has consistently been named by the public, in polls, as the most admired woman, or one of the two or three most admired women, in America. In fact, when she was finishing her fourth year as Secretary of State, she had a nationwide approval rating of 66%. Sixty-six percent — higher than Reagan at his highest.
But the moment she began “exploring” whether to run for president, the right-wing media machine went into full gear, and began calling her the most hated, untrustworthy, dishonest, crooked politician in American history. And the “mainstream” media of ABC, CBS, CNN, and the rest went right along parroting the claims from the Karl Rove machine.
For the past 10 months we’ve also heard that Democrats can’t stand her, that she’s the lesser of two evils, that only Bernie can unite the Democrats and put up a real challenge to the status quo. Yet over and over, in open and closed primaries, Hillary has beaten Bernie by a total of 3 million Democratic (and Independent) votes cast. Even counting in caucuses, both open and closed, her percentage of actual votes (56.5% to Bernie’s 43.5%) is higher than the percentage of pledged delegates she has been awarded (54%-46%), showing that if anything, the allocation of delegates has been unfairly skewed toward Bernie, not toward her. Those are simple facts. That’s how numbers work.
This week, for the first time since before the campaign began, the media actually covered a Clinton event as it was delivered — not through the prism of phony “America hates Clinton-Hillary has too much baggage-nobody trusts Hillary” bullcrap. Not only did they cover her appearance in San Diego and report on what she said, they also began calling out Trump for his lies, denials, flip-flops, and refusal to answer questions (see CNN’s chyron).
One network cut off an interview with his spokeswoman (the most recent bimbo he’s hired for the job) because she wouldn’t answer a follow-up question about where she got the numbers for her (false) claims about the Clinton Foundation. The host came back on 15 minutes later with the actual numbers to point up the lie that Trump’s spokeswoman had tried to push.
Hillary is not a hated woman. She has been portrayed as one for political purposes for 25 years, and she’s been smeared with false accusations ranging from corruption to anti-woman bias to murder … and she is still not only standing, but fighting for the rights of women, children, people of color, and everyone less privileged in this country.
As for “people want change,” we’ve had 40 years of presidents who came into the Oval Office unprepared, unaware, or simply not up to the challenge of the presidency. People can learn how to be president, only it usually takes them halfway through their first term to do so. Mrs. Clinton is better prepared to serve as president than anyone since Lyndon Johnson or Richard Nixon.
For those who think “If the Democrats nominate Clinton they will be nominating another Dukakis or Kerry, I can only say, “Wait till November 8.” Trump will be Goldwatered.
I appreciate your argument and hope you are right. My perspective is not based on poll numbers but on people I have talked with. The depth of their vitriolic hatred has made me wonder whether she can win. And saddened me too because clearly, she is extremely well qualified to be president and could steer the country on a sane course for much needed change.
Thanks, LuMack.
I have friends — many of them women of Hillary’s age, background, and education — who say to me, “I just don’t like her.” Or “I don’t trust her.” “I don’t think she’s trustworthy.” “There’s just something about her.”
And over and over — this has gone on for a year now — when I’ve asked for any particular reason, anything she’s done, any evidence that she’s “not trustworthy,” or any personality or character flaw that makes them not like her, they never have an answer. “She flip-flopped (changed her mind) on gay marriage.” — just like 60% of the United States. “She let her husband debase the Oval Office.” — and stayed married to him, while they divorced their husbands. It’s always that kind of soapsuds.
It’s not as if these are right-wingers blabbing “Benghazi” or “Whitewater.” They’re progressive or moderate or even far-left Democrats who support(ed) Patsy Keever and Julie Mayfield and Marie Colton and Esther Manheimer and Kay Hagan and Bev Perdue … and every other woman whose ascent Hillary helped make possible! They love Barbara Mikulski and Barbara Boxer, and even Nancy Pelosi. But they “can’t stand Hillary.”
I honestly think it’s because they’ve been drinking the Koolaid for the past 25 years, and now they think some fake fruity flavor is what plain water is supposed to taste like. They can’t tell the difference anymore between what they know and what they believe.
Fortunately, every one of them has also told me she’ll vote for Hillary in the fall — unhappily.
I don’t get it, other than in this context: as an out gay man in the 1970s and ’80s, I found some gay movement leaders unstomachable, even when I knew intellectually that they were doing things that had to be done for the good of the movement. But their personalities were “wrong” in my eyes — too effeminate, or too self-righteous, or too whatever — whereas I just went about my life being a subversive fifth-columnist invading corporate America so that colleagues and bosses would make the commitment to respect and admire me for my work and my character .. and then find out I was gay and not be willing to “un-judge” me after the fact. “My way” was the right way, regardless of what they were accomplishing their way.
So maybe a lot of folks just wish it were any woman other than that particular woman, just as Donald Trump was so proud of “my African American” at his rally yesterday. I remember people who wanted a good, “white-sounding Negro” instead of Jesse Jackson, and now they want a good, housewife sounding woman instead of the one they’ve got.
But she’s the one they’ve got — thank god.
This is what I see too – people I know who absolutely loathe her. That’s not a media creation. The hatred is a complicated beast, a mix of GOP propaganda spanning decades (Benghazi! The dual-presidency of the 90s! The blue dress – thank you Ken Starr, who showed how much he really cares about the pursuit of sexual justice when the head of Baylor – and remember, the blue dress was ALL the GOP got out of a $50 million investigation into Whitewater! Not staying home to bake cookies!) – and of course there is the rampant sexism that is flourishing today. At one point, one of the GOP leaders – I cannot remember whom – said the nation was sick of these milestone presidencies – i.e. the first black president should be replaced by white male once again.
The real and troubling issue facing America today is that one party has gone absolutely mad – there is no ideology really in any of the GOP platforms any more – just the desire to ramp up fear and hatred. It’s a travesty.
If the Democrats nominate Clinton they will be nominating another Dukakis or Kerry. The American people hate her. The majority may not like Trump but they hate her. The national Democrats are cramming another loser down our throats.
Trump is not without his faults. He is not in my top 100 of picks. He is an embarrassment and does not have any class or respect on the trail. Chalk up his popularity to the fact that he is the king of reality t.v. in a reality t.v. world. It astounds me – America is better than this.
But let’s look at Hilliary (notice ‘liar’ is in her name). Have you forgotten the copious amount of scandals and unscrupulous activities in this woman’s history? Whitewate, Cattlegate, HIllary Care disaster, taking money from Saudia Arabia?!, travelgate, pardongate, using the IRS to harrass political adversaries, filegate, stealing furniture from the white house, china gate, emailgate, benghazi, defending a child rapist, lying about being under sniper fire, watergate where she was fired for being a liar and for conspiring to violate the consitution – her boss called her unscrupulous, campaign finance violations… THIS IS NOT EVEN THE FULL LIST!
Each and every one of the accusations you list comes from her political opponents, mostly aggressively partisan Republicans, and have resulted in zero (none, nada, zip, zilch) actionable facts.
Benghazi is a dead horse that the GOP has finally beat into a rotting, unrecognizable pulp; although, lacking a “better” scandal, some remain hunkered next to the corpse and insist that there’s still life left in that tragedy. “But wait!” you may say, “there’s those damn emails!” A stupid decision on her part to follow precedent set by previous SoSs? Yes, in retrospect. Actionable? Probably not, just like the other accusations.
Republicans have been running against her for a quarter of a century and obviously I’m not the only voter to recognize this.
“Lie” is in your name also.
“Hilliary (notice ‘liar’ is in her name)” – that works only if you are too stupid to spell her name correctly. But nice job believing the right-wing propaganda. You are a great example of the GOP base…
Two things said above are very true of Republicans I know. One, they do not care what he promises. Politicians now lie constantly with impunity and it doesn’t matter because almost nothing gets done, and what is done often goes straight to the Courts. I know one otherwise fairly sane Republican who says, If Trump “assembles the right team ” he will vote for him. Paul Ryan and other Republicans in power share this mentality, that Trump can be controlled. And of course, the anybody but Hillary camp is larger than anyone seems to be able to acknowledge. She is deeply despised, for no good reason, but people don’t need to have reasons any more. Prejudices are completely acceptable. As for me, all I can see now is that we as a country deserve Trump, the media included. Bring it on, get it over with, and maybe then something good will actually get a foothold and rise out of the ashes of our clearly moribund political system.
IMHO the Trump phenomenon can be boiled down to this: the Republican primary voters (and I believe the American People at large) want change, and they’ll take it any form or flavor that they can get it. They are desperate, they are not used to this novelty of having a viable choice that clearly represents a collective F-You to the people that pay to prevent change, and they are going to vote for Trump in very large numbers no matter what BS comes out of his mouth, even if they won’t admit that to the pollsters.
The Trump supporter mentality is close kin to the mentality of those who burned down their own neighborhoods after the assassination of MLK by J. Edgar’s FBI. You can call it setting aside critical thinking in their despair and rage, or you can call it a rational decision by people who have almost no options.
“Do something, anything, even if it’s wrong.”
“Doing the same thing over and over, and expecting a different result, is the definition of insanity.”
Trump supporters are not insane or damaged, they are selecting one of the only rational choices from the extremely tiny set of options they have been presented with – none of which are any good in their opinion.
I don’t think they really care if Trump makes good on his promises, the American People have gotten pretty used to our kabuki theater politics where everybody knows the promises are all lies. It didn’t seem to phase Obama’s supporters.
It may all be the usual lies and dangerous bluster, but at least they can give the finger to the people that treat them like cattle, who laugh at them as “mentally challenged”.
Let’s hope that Clinton takes positive action to prevent that group from expanding in the general election, because the feeling is very, very widespread in both parties.
“Another, theory exists, which my friend discussed, is just basic “I don’t care what happen to this country”. This seems almost unbelievable, that any level of unpatriotic thinking could exist.”
The Republican party has become one of the most un-American organizations I’ve ever seen. They are actively promoting the Bible as the place to determine our laws (here in NC, they even floated the idea of a state religion!); they believe the only amendment worth protecting is the 2nd amendment; they want to wall off America from the world; they think labor is something people should give freely to employers – god forbid that the Waltons suffer from a slight loss in Walmart’s shareholder value due to paying living wages to full time employees! The environment is something to be ravaged – here in NC, NCGOP leadership is allowing families to drink toxic water – this is incredibly dangerous to people who live near Duke Energy’s coal ash ponds. The level of discourse among GOP presidential candidates never lifted higher than 6th grade playground level.
It’s an unbelievable transformation of the Grand Old Party from the party of Lincoln to a party of haters and fear mongers and liars. They should all be ashamed of themselves.
Thomas, I do not believe you hang around many Republicans. I find myself surrounded by Republicans. They are going to be good soldiers and vote the party ticket. They hate Hillary far more than they fear a Trump presidency. That Trump is the very best candidate from that massive GOP pool speaks to the moral and ideological bankruptcy of the Republican party these days – but the fact remains – Trump is the GOP candidate for president in 2016.
For months, the money was on the fact that Trump would never be the nominee. He’s proved the pundits wrong time and time again. The very worse thing the Democrats can do is take an HRC victory for granted. She has A LOT of baggage and A LOT of people loathe her.
I truly hope I am wrong, but Trump stands a very good chance of becoming President Trump. THAT’s the cognitive dissonance that has become “commonsense thinking” in America – the party of family values has nominated a man with multiple ex-wives, a current wife who is an immigrant with very public pictures of her scantily clad on the Trump plane, a man with multiple bankruptcies is going to lead the US economy back into health… by declaring bankruptcy, no doubt. It’s an awful scenario that might just become one for the history books.
Here’s to hoping I’m very wrong…
No one is really trained to be president.
That is why you have advisers and why Trump would be wise to select a politician like Newt Gingrich as his VP. Its about gathering information and making the best decision based on information provided, Trump has a proven record of doing that.
Trump has a proven record of multiple bankruptcies – and multiple marriages. He’s currently embroiled in civil lawsuits about Trump University – and he has claimed the judge’s Mexican heritage leaves him unqualified for the job of adjudicating this issue. How disgusting!
Trump listens to no one and seems to hate all with a passion. That’s a global crisis in the making when a president so consumed by hate is so uninterested in the counsel of others.