If the polls are right, then North Carolina is looking like a Trump win tomorrow night. Here are the numbers:
PPP: Trump +11
High Point: Trump +20
Civitas: Trump +6
SurveyUSA: Trump +14
That averages out to 12.75%. Because Trump is known to underperform his polling numbers, I expect the race to be closer than that – probably high single-digits.
Trump has strong appeal among Republican primary voters in North Carolina. Some say that his advantage is due to the divided field, but PPP finds that Trump still leads Cruz 49%-43% in a head-to-head contest. He also has the most firmly committed supporters; only 11% of his supporters say they might change their mind before they vote.
I’ll be interested to see Trump’s overall percentage here tomorrow. Another thing to watch is who gets third place. Most of the polls now have Kasich overtaking Rubio in the state. PPP found Kasich with 11% and Rubio with 7%. The Ohio governor will probably see his strongest support in the Research Triangle area and in Charlotte, where there are more moderate Republican voters.
In related news, Senate president pro-tem Phil Berger has endorsed Ted Cruz for President. Donald Trump has only one endorsement from a member of the General Assembly – State Senator Ronald Rabin of Harnett County, who spoke at the rally for Trump in Fayetteville. The lack of endorsements from legislators is usually an indication of a nonviable campaign but this is a remarkably unusual year in politics.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Wake up North Carolina vote for Cruz today
NC’s true colors are about to become evident, and it ain’t pretty!
But what about Hillary? Will her win here contribute to our “true colors?”
Each party will be colored by the candidate it votes for. I hope, but sincerely doubt, that most Republican voters will pick someone they truly believe is presidential instead of the most outrageous.
Absolutely it will if NC. democrats are gullible and stupid enough to vote for Hillary Wall Street. As I said before, I’ll vote for Trump before I’ll vote for a warmonger and liar like Hillary Clinton. However, my primary vote goes to Sanders – “FeelTheBern”!
You don’t think Tump is a war monger? LOL!