The presidential primary is coming to North Carolina in less than two weeks and it actually looks like our vote will matter. We’ll be competing with other big states like Ohio and Florida for candidates’ attention, but already we’re seeing some action. Hillary Clinton opened up an office in Raleigh and announced that she was being endorsed by 43 of 61 Democratic legislators. Bernie Sanders has opened up five offices while Donald Trump will be in Fayetteville next week.
On the Democratic side, Hillary is likely to romp. She’ll probably exceed 60% of the vote. Sanders will find greater support here than in other Southern states simply because we have more white liberals and an abundance of college students. Clinton will do well everywhere and will crush in the Black Belt. Sanders will be strong in the Research Triangle and in the mountains, where he’ll probably carry Buncombe and Watauga counties, as well as other mountain communities with a liberal vibe.
The Republican race is more fluid. The latest polls have Donald Trump in first, Ted Cruz in second, with Marco Rubio a little bit behind. In general, Trump will do well in economically depressed communities where manufacturing used to dominate. He’ll also be dominant in the old tobacco areas of Eastern North Carolina.
Rubio should do well in the Research Triangle, where there are high proportions of very educated voters, and in other suburban areas around the state. His failure to win Virginia is a bad sign for his chances of winning North Carolina, where the suburban contingent is not as strong.
As for Cruz, I’m not sure where his support will be concentrated. But if I had to guess, it would be exurban counties like Johnston, Union, Cabarrus. He should do well across the state but one thing hurting him is the fact that North Carolina is an open primary. Thousands of Democrats will be crossing over to vote in the Republican primary and that will help Trump, not Cruz.
I’m also interested in seeing how Trump does in counties with a high proportion of veterans – Cumberland, Hoke, Onslow. We’ll see if veterans really do love Trump or if that’s just bluster.
Regardless of what happens, Super Tuesday and the divided vote means that North Carolina will be a factor – as was intended by the legislature. Probably not a decisive factor, but who knows. It will be very interesting to see what happens on March 15th.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
No John, thousands of Democrats will NOT be crossing over to vote in the Republican primary. Because, no, North Carolina does not have open primaries. Only Unaffiliated voters are allowed to choose their primary.
From the BoE website:
(http://ncsbe.azurewebsites.net/voter-info)
Voter Registration & Party Affiliation
North Carolina has a semi-closed primary system. In a partisan primary, voters who are affiliated with a political party may only vote the partisan ballot for the party for which they are affiliated; they are closed from voting in another party’s primary. Unaffiliated voters may vote in any one recognized party’s primary.
John: Do you see any down-ballot impact in the Democratic and Republican primaries?
It’s hard to say. My guess is that if there’s any downballot impact, it would only be on the Republican side, and even there it would be limited. Higher turnout might even help establishment candidates who have name recognition.