The Rising American Electorate

by | Apr 9, 2014 | 2014 Elections, Demographic Trends, Editor's Blog, NC Politics | 1 comment

Like Soccer Moms and NASCAR Dads before them, there is a new voting demographic on which to focus. They are called the Rising American Electorate or RAE for short. The name is a lot less fun and catchy than its predecessors but this group of voters may eventually shape the political landscape.

I say eventually because, right now, they are among the least likely people to vote in mid-term elections. And they are heavily Democratic. They carried Barack Obama to victory in two elections but they left his party high and dry in 2010 and threaten to do so again this year.

This Rising American Electorate is made up of “unmarried women, people of color and young people aged 18-29,” according to a press release distributed by the Voter Participation Project and pollster Celinda Lake. In North Carolina, unmarried women alone represent over 500,000 drop-off voters, people who show up in presidential years but not in off years. My guess is that many of these women also fall within the categories of “young people” and “people of color,” making them a prime target for Get Out the Vote programs.

Conventional wisdoms says that, in North Carolina, African-American voters fall off more than other voters in off-year elections. But these young women drop off even more. According to the Census Bureau, in 2010, 43% of all registered voters cast a ballot and 40.5% of African-American voters did and only 38% of the unmarried women showed up. For Democrats, motivating these young women can make the difference in November.

Another poll from Democracy Corps says that pocketbook issues like pay equity and protection from gender gauging by insurance companies resonate with these unmarried women. That may be true, but it’s going to take more than the right message to get them to the polls. Something needs to motivate them and that’s where field operations come into play.

Issues may persuade and convince voters who are already planning to vote, but getting people to go to the polls who aren’t otherwise motivated is another thing altogether. Democrats in North Carolina need organization and these young women need a sense of purpose. The Kay Hagan campaign says that they will put together the most sophisticated field organization in North Carolina history. The Voter Participation Project has identified their target. Now they need to get to work.

1 Comment

  1. Chris Telesca

    In 2012, OFA said they would “… put together the most sophisticated field organization in North Carolina history…” and would coordinate wit the other candidates. Obama lost NC by nearly 100K votes. Dalton lost by 500K votes.

    What happened in 2008 that did not happen in 2010 or 2012? Dean’s 50 state strategy and Meek’s 100 county strategy were in place, even though OFA was trying hard to dismantle both programs starting in June 2008. Both programs helped Obama – even he admitted it.

    The lack of effective party building and the candidate-centric campaigning cost us dearly after 2008. And both Citizens United and McCutcheon v. FEC will effectively turn us from from candidate-centric to donor-centric elections.

    One writer feels that McCutcheon v. FEC gives political parties an edge, since the parties are much more transparent and accountable than any of the groups that have sprouted up since “Citizens United”.

    This and all elections are much more important than any one single candidate or campaign. Once we realize that – we can attract the right kind of Democratic candidates, then get out the vote for ALL those Democratic candidates who, once elected, will work to turn our party platform into public policy – not work to make the rich even richer!

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