The state of house races

by | Aug 17, 2018 | 2018 elections, Editor's Blog

Our maps at PoliticsNC have been updated. (Thanks, Amanda.) It’s time to take a look at the lay of the land in legislative races as we approach the end of August and the beginning of the real campaign season in September. We’ll start with the House. Republicans hold a veto proof majority in the state House of Representatives by a margin of 74-46. Democrats need to win at least four races to sustain Governor Roy Cooper’s veto. They need to win at least 16 seats to win the majority.

Republicans hold 43 seats with a Republican registration advantage of at least 5% or more. Democrats have 42 seats with a Democratic registration advantage of 5% or more. These should be the safest seats for both parties though candidates matter and politics are notoriously unpredictable.

There are eight districts held by Republicans that have a Democratic registration advantage of 10% or more. Democrats hold one seat where Republicans have a 9 point registration advantage. Even if they lose that seat, those eight seats alone should give Democrats enough of an advantage to break the veto-proof majority, especially in a political environment like this one. In addition, there are another 8 Republican-held seats where Democrats hold a registration advantage of between five and ten points. That’s 16 pretty solid targets for Democrats and one for Republicans from a purely numbers perspective.

There are two seats that Democrats hold where their partisan registration advantage is less than 5%, but there are six Republican-held seats where Democrats hold a registration advantage of between one and five percent. There another ten Republican seats where the GOP registration advantage is less than 5%. Most of these 18 seats are in rural areas, making them tougher for Democrats but still possibilities.

As I said, candidates matter. In a number of districts, Democrats, especially women, have dramatically outraised Republican incumbents. Eleven Democrats have outraised their Republican incumbent opponents by more than $25,000. In the most lopsided money race, Democrat Martha Shafer (HD-62) outraised her Republican opponent by almost $110,000 and has almost $90,000 more cash on hand. Almost as impressive, Terri Legrand (HD-74) and Rachel Hunt (HD-103) topped their GOP opponents by just under $100,000. Lisa Mathis (HD-51), Brandon Lofton (HD-104), Joe Sam Queen (HD-119), and Erica McAdoo (HD-63) outraised their opponents by more than $65,000. Terrence Everitt and Christy Clark (HD-98) outraised their opponents by almost $50,000; Rhonda Schandevel (HD-118) outraised hers by almost $40,000; and Ray Russell (HD-93) outraised his opponent by $30,000.

In addition, in Republican-held open seats, Democrat Tess Judge (HD-06) outraised her opponent by more than $70,000 and Democrat Sydney Batch (HD-37) outraised her opponent by $55,000. In HD-06, Rick Foulke has more than $50,000 more cash on hand than the Republican incumbent. In numerous other seats, Democratic candidates matched GOP incumbent fundraising.

Republicans will make up some of their fundraising deficit now that session is over and they can collect PAC checks. Still, Democrats have a remarkably strong field of candidates and a whole lot of target districts. They will force Republicans to play in places that they don’t want to be playing. Unless the political environment tanks for the Democrats on the other side of Labor Day, the veto-proof majority should be gone in the House after the election. It’ll take a wave to for Democrats to take the majority, but if one’s out there, they’ve got a bunch of candidates with the chops to catch it.

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