The State Senate Races: A Look Back

by | Nov 10, 2014 | 2014 Elections, Carolina Strategic Analysis, Democrats, Features, NC Politics, NC Senate Races, NCGA, NCGOP | 6 comments

Overall, Republicans did very well on Election Night when it came to the General Assembly races, especially in the State Senate, where they actually managed to pick up a seat. Yes, they lost a few in the House, and we’ll cover those later, but they maintained their veto-proof majorities. It’s very easy for the GOP to spin the results as a referendum on the General Assembly’s record and a mandate for a continued conservative course.

In this post I’m going to look at how the competitive races turned out and how our initial forecasts fared. There were no major upsets in these races, with the only real surprise being how the GOP ran the table and managed to pick up one seat.

Senate District 1
Bill Cook (R, incumbent) – 53.4%
Stan White (D) – 46.6%

In 2012, Cook won his seat, beating White, by only 21 votes. This time, despite being the incumbent and serving in an unpopular legislature, Cook widened his margin of victory considerably. One thing I’ve noticed about rural Eastern NC voters is that they tend to be pro-incumbent. Now that they’re being represented by a Republican, they’re more willing to give the incumbent the benefit of the doubt. Democrats also might have erred by targeting Cook on environmental issues, which may not have been the top priority of voters here.

Interestingly, Cook lost the county that contains Elizabeth City, despite being the sponsor of a bill that would “save” the university, by 13 points, while Tillis lost it by only 10. I suppose we can attribute that to there still being a lot of conservative Democrats around willing to back candidates at the legislative level, but these are becoming fewer in number with the passage of time. After White’s disappointing finish here, SD-01 probably drops off the targeted districts list for the rest of the decade.

How we did: I’m proud I rated this district as Leans Republican instead of in the pure toss-up category where most observers had it. The gap between support for national Democrats and support for legislative Democrats is really starting to thin in rural districts like these.

Senate District 8
Bill Rabon (R, incumbent) – 57.0%
Ernie Ward (D) – 43.0%

As expected, Rabon coasted to reelection in this coastal district. There was no Democratic wave in North Carolina and the incumbent did not stick his foot in his mouth. His margin of victory, however, was reduced from 20 points in 2012 to 14 points this time around. But still a landslide loss for Rabon’s opponent, veterinarian Ernie Ward. I had this as Likely Republican.

Senate District 9
Michael Lee (R, incumbent) – 55.4%
Elizabeth Redenbaugh (D) – 44.7%

I had this district as Tilts Republican, out of an abundance of caution in case a Democratic wave hit. This district, in a neutral environment, should favor a Republican.
I’m not sure what happened here. I thought the ending of the film credits might lead to a blowback against Republican candidates. Tillis, for instance, barely won New Hanover County. Lee ran on restoring the credits but you’d think Redenbaugh would have been able to run a lot better. Lee was appointed to succeed Goolsby after the incumbent decided to retire from the General Assembly; many said that Goolsby would have been one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the Senate. Actually, the GOP did so well in the Senate on Election Night that I wouldn’t be surprised if Goolsby had been able to pull out a win here as well.

Senate District 10
Brent Jackson (R, incumbent) – 62.5%
Donald Rains (D) – 37.5%

Some people had this as a race to watch early on, but I had my doubts, thinking that Jackson wasn’t vulnerable, even in a Democratic wave. Jackson won his race by 25 points. I don’t think this district is worth paying attention to in the future.

Senate District 12
Ronald Rabin (R, incumbent) – 56.0%
Joe Langley (D) – 44.0%

I put this as Likely Republican. Rabin had a close one in 2012 but that was more due to it being an open seat situation and having an unusually strong Democratic opponent (who is now a State Representative-elect). Harnett County turned out strongly for Republicans this year and Rabin won his race by a comfortable margin. This seat should favor Republicans for the rest of the decade; Democrats probably need a Rabin retirement and a blue wave to take it back.

Senate District 15
John Alexander (R) – 50.4%
Tom Bradshaw (D) – 49.6%

There was definitely a backlash against the legislature in Wake County and the Research Triangle generally. But this seat is drawn to favor Republicans, and I had this rated as Tilt Republican. The seat became open as a result of the retirement of Republican Neal Hunt. This race is close enough for a recount but I doubt Bradshaw pursues it. Too bad for Bradshaw it wasn’t a presidential year. Alexander had to deal with legislative backlash, a late start, and a very strong opponent but in the end he was able to ride the Republican wave nationally.

Senate District 16
Josh Stein (D, incumbent) – 67.1%
Molotov Mitchell (R) – 32.9%

The colorful Molotov Mitchell lost in this solid blue seat, as expected. The seat should become open if Stein runs for Attorney General, and he in all likelihood will do so. Rep. Duane Hall could be a contender to succeed him, as could Representative-elect Gale Adcock. Interestingly, it looks like Mitchell may have won Precinct 05-03, a very Republican area which contains the affluent Preston neighborhood in Cary.

Senate District 17
Tamara Barringer (R, incumbent) – 58.4%
Bryan Fulghum (D) – 41.6%

As expected, Sen. Tamara Barringer cruised to reelection against an opponent who ran a shoestring campaign. Fulghum works in the service industry (specifically, he’s a server at Buffalo Wild Wings in Cary) and is of no known relation to the late Rep. Fulghum, who was slated to run for SD-15 this year before his death from cancer this summer. Of note, Fulghum was also the openly gay candidate running for the General Assembly this year – not that this had anything to do with the election results. The result here is interesting only as a gauge of the Democratic floor in this district.

I had this as Solid Republican, even though this seat could fall in a very Democratic year. Keep an eye on Barringer. She could be a potential candidate for U.S. Congress in the future.

Senate District 18
Chad Barefoot (R, incumbent) – 52.9%
Sarah Crawford (D) – 47.1%

This might have been the most expensive State Senate race of the 2014 cycle. Both parties spent a ton of money here. Barefoot ran a very aggressive campaign and aired a creative House of Cards-themed ad, with the message that Crawford’s lobbyist husband could make her tenure in Raleigh a serious conflict of interest. Barefoot also refused to run from the achievements of the Republican legislature and made the race a contrast between conservative leadership in Raleigh and the Democratic leadership of the past. Barefoot is another one to watch and he will probably see a competitive race in 2016 if he runs again. Interestingly, Barefoot won the Wake County portion of his district by 8 but lost in Franklin County by 0.7%.

Senate District 19
Wesley Meredith (R, incumbent) – 54.5%
Billy Richardson (D) – 45.5%

Sen. Meredith represents a district in Cumberland County that went for Obama twice. Democrats had high hopes of taking him out two years ago, but they nominated a flawed opponent and Meredith won by 8 points. This time they went with Billy Richardson, a fairly generic former legislator who was given a great shot at taking out arguably the GOP’s most vulnerable incumbent. What happened? Meredith won by 9 points, improving on his 2012 margin of victory despite a stronger opponent and anti-General Assembly sentiment. My guess is that the welfare story was too hot to handle and backfired on Richardson. It was just too ugly of an attack. The Republican tide at the national level also helped Meredith. Maybe Democrats will get him in 2016, but at this point they have to be exasperated with Meredith’s ability to withstand pretty much anything.

I had this race as pure toss-up when I wrote about it in August. I think the overall analysis was correct, but the result wasn’t close so I’m going to treat this as a “wrong” forecast.

Senate District 25
Tom McInnis (R) – 50.4%
Gene McLaurin (D) – 47.1%
P.H. Dawkins (L) – 2.5%
***GOP PICK-UP***

I rated this as a Pure Toss-Up, even though I also said that I thought it would go Republican in the end. Given what happened last week, I’m very satisfied with that prediction. McLaurin went down not because of any state issues on which he was on the wrong side, but because he had a (D) next to his name. A GOP ad had McLaurin’s face morphing into Obama’s. A stretch? Maybe. Effective? Absolutely. This one should be painful for Democrats – not only was McLaurin the only incumbent that lost Tuesday night, they probably won’t win this seat back anytime soon. This is a white, rural district in the South, and in today’s world that pretty much means Republican. If there’s any lesson to be learned from the 2014 elections, it’s that being a Democrat with a somewhat conservative voting record just isn’t enough, even in historically Democratic areas.

(No district from SD-26 through SD-50 were competitive this year, nor did I analyze them, though the race in SD-50, held by Republican Jim Davis, was won by 8 points, closer than some of the races above.)

Overall, Democrats have to be reeling over actually managing to lose seats in the State Senate last week. The State Senate, if you recall, is considered to be the more conservative chamber of the General Assembly. It’s not for lack of opportunity that Democrats lost ground: this summer, they had a shot at SD-1, SD-9, SD-15, SD-18, and SD-19, and also a shot at keeping SD-25 in Democratic hands, for a net gain of 5 seats. Of course, this probably represented the best-case scenario for that party. The worst-case scenario would be if they failed to pick up any of the aforementioned seats and also lost McLaurin, and that’s exactly what happened. The seat they came closest to picking up was SD-15 in Wake County, and they failed to do so despite having a strong candidate, a head start, and an anti-GOP year in the state’s most voter-rich county.

A couple days ago, after the election, Gov. McCrory said that conservative lawmakers had to be cautious in governing because they did not have a mandate. Looking at the State Senate results, it’s hard to come to that conclusion. I imagine Senate President Phil Berger sees things a lot differently. In all likelihood, he will continue to use the power of the upper chamber to steer NC to the right and to enact the conservative agenda that he perceives as the will of North Carolina voters.

6 Comments

  1. randy michael

    most average north caroleans does not understand jerrymandering.its just another quick way to keep some of the less unedgucated voters in the dark.repubs should be assamed.they cheated,commited fraud,and bought this midterm election.i dont agree with the same sex marriages,abortion but repubs has not done much to stand against these immoral issues.over all if the dems would have stuck ,kept there selves close and would have told what good things they had done they would have retaibnn

  2. Smithson

    From here on out the battle lines are drawn in the suburbs of metro areas. Brian Turner’s NC House 116 win in west Buncombe County is a playbook for how excellent organization and ground game, coupled with slight demographic changes, are the path for winning in the future.

  3. NC Dem

    Have we forgotten redistricting? Regardless of “backlash,” Dems will always struggle to win districts that are very effectively gerrymandered. I suspect if they hadn’t been sliced and diced to guarantee GOP wins, the swing areas would have installed a different crop of senators.

    • TJ Thompson

      The Republicans were mentored quite well for 140 years in this time honored tradition and learned their lesson equally well.

  4. Tom

    Statewide vote totals for NC Senate:

    Republicans 47%
    Democrats 42%
    Others or blank 12%

    • Mike L

      Do you happen to know the totals for the House?

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