The two sides of the jobs report and mismanaging expectations

by | May 3, 2014 | 2014 Elections, Economy, Editor's Blog, NC Politics

The jobs report is out again. This time, April growth exceeded expectations. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 288,000 new jobs were created and the unemployment rate dropped to 6.3% from 6.7%. 

So what was the response? As Politico notes, Democrats were weary and Republicans were critical. Americans for Prosperity, the Koch-backed organization running ads against Kay Hagan, blasted the report because of a shrinking workforce. Wonder if they will blast Republicans in North Carolina for the shrinking workforce here?

It’s an interesting dynamic to watch. The jobs report and unemployment numbers come out in North Carolina and Republicans start crowing about how their policies are creating jobs. Then Democrats jump on the report and note that a smaller percentage of people are working and the population is growing so those numbers are all smoke and mirrors. It’s the same argument that AFP made about the national report. 

As I told the Politico reporter, the numbers and statistics don’t mean much until people who don’t pay attention to such data start feeling better about their personal situations. So far, they aren’t. The muted response from Democrats indicates that they understand that. 

In North Carolina, though, the GOP touts any drop in unemployment as a vindication for all the harm they’ve done. They are hanging on to any bit of good news they can get, because they haven’t gotten much. Our best teachers are leaving the profession or the state because of the miserable pay. Schools systems are slashing budgets and now the state is facing a budget hole of more than $400 million. They’ve made a mess of the Department of Health and Human Services and they botched the response to the coal ash spill. You can’t blame them for trying to make chicken salad out of chicken shit, but it still stinks. 

But the bigger Republican problem is managing expectations. They promised all their tax cuts for the rich would fire up North Carolina’s economy. It hasn’t. They swore Obamacare would destroy the economy. The current jobs report refutes that notion. They over promise and under deliver. 

While all the indicators right now say Democrats are in trouble, I’m not so sure. The national economy is picking up steam and pulling North Carolina along with it. Obamacare is not going to be as big a drag on Democrats as Republicans had hoped. And here in North Carolina, the GOP has managed to anger the diverse Democrat base with attacks on voting rights, women’s health and public schools and universities. They’ve given everybody a reason to go vote but little reason to vote for them. 

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