The Republican Party will find itself in one of three scenarios following tonight’s Iowa caucuses. I’ve outlined them below, and their implications:

1. Trump wins big. If Trump not only wins, but wins big, he will completely dominate the news cycle between Iowa and New Hampshire. Those Republicans who are not fans of Trump will be very dispirited. There may also be a last-gasp “Is this what you really want?” push from the Republican establishment, with calls to get serious and to coalesce behind an anti-Trump before it’s too late. But some will see the writing on the wall and will attempt to come to terms with a nominee Trump.

2. Cruz wins. Cruz’s campaign has played the expectations game so poorly that their candidate will have to win Iowa big in order to come out with any momentum. Even should Cruz win, his many enemies in the party will discount its significance – and Iowa may find itself on the chopping block if he fails to win anywhere else.

3. Rubio defies the expectations.. Rubio has been playing the expectations game masterfully, saying only that they’re aiming for third and pointing out the amazing organization of the Cruz campaign. If Rubio places a close third or even winds up in second place, then the race changes completely.

While Rubio won’t get the most delegates, he’ll definitely get the most momentum in such a situation and would be well-poised to take a strong second in New Hampshire, making it a virtual guarantee that he’ll become the Republican anti-Trump – and unlike Cruz, he’ll be someone who can appeal to both hardcore conservatives and the more mainstream in the party.

It’s going to be interesting.

0 Comments

Related Posts

GET UPDATES

Get the latest posts from PoliticsNC delivered right to your inbox!

You have Successfully Subscribed!