Yesterday, Team Tillis got what they haven’t had in almost a month now: good news. In fact, yesterday was a very good day for the Tillis camp. Requests for absentee ballots are showing Republicans turning the tide. The Supreme Court also issued a stay in the Voter ID case, meaning no out-of-precinct voting this year and, most significantly, no same-day registration.
But perhaps the best news for Tillis came from two polls, one from Rasmussen (considered GOP-leaning) and one from USA Today/Suffolk University (considered Democratic leaning). In both of them, Hagan led by only 2 points, within the margin of error. In the USA Today poll, Hagan’s lead appears inflated because of rounding. Her lead in that poll is actually 1.40%.
So what’s going on? On what level, this was to be expected. That undecided voters go disproportionately for the challenger is a pet theory of many political analysts. And the leads Hagan was putting up in mid-September just weren’t sustainable. As long as Tillis narrowed the spending gap on the airwaves, her lead was bound to go down.
But there’s also good news for Hagan here. She’s now closer to that 48% or so she needs for victory. A lot of her support is soft, but she’s retaining some of the new supporters she’s gained since August. Make no mistake, she’s still the favorite in this race. RCP has her lead at 3.4%. FiveThirtyEight gives her 79% odds of winning on November 4th (she peaked at 81% a couple of days ago). There’s only 25 days to go. And it’s telling that Tillis supporters are clinging to polls showing him trailing by only 2 points as a hopeful sign.
Still, Democrats shouldn’t get cocky. Hagan’s path to reelection has always been tough – really tough. So far, she’s overcome the odds by running a surprisingly effective campaign. But in the end, anxiety over national issues and the lagging unpopularity of President Obama could still prove decisive. If Senator Tillis takes office in January, that will be the narrative of how the North Carolina Senate race went down.
UPDATE: Public Opinion Strategies (Tillis’s official pollster) just released a poll this morning showing Hagan leading by 2 points. This habit of theirs releasing internal polls that are the same or worse for Tillis than the public polls is quite curious. The last time POS released a survey, it was to preempt a whole bunch of bad polls for Tillis in early September. Who knows what the reason is this time? Anyway, just note that even the Tillis camp concedes they’re underdogs right now – though they think they can win with a surge in support from undecided voters who disapprove heavily of President Obama. And, of course, a lot of money, to go with it.
UPDATE 2: And now, yet another poll, this time from the Susan B. Anthony List, a pro-life women’s group, conducted along with the Lukens Group. Hagan leads by 2.4%. Four polls in the last two days, all of them showing Hagan with a two-point lead. OK, I think it’s safe to say that Hagan leads by 2 points.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
The last debate includes Haugh, an opportunity for him to get some TV face-time, name recognition, and his very different Libertarian notions out there. If Haugh has any effect at all on the election, I suspect he would likely take some votes away from Tillis.
Politicians in general ( including libertarians) seem to be at the bottom end of the food chain. Moreover, this nonsense of republicans in shutting down the goverment, blocking any legislation which may make Obama look good is not the way goverment should be run. Legitimate business do not (and can not) operate in this fashion. I suspect most folks have lost sight of the purpose of goverment. Anybody who goes along with a scheme, regardless of whether it is sound (or not) appeal to the low information voter. Gov. systems like Social Security, Medicare are made to look like hand outs. Politicians who support a better health care program are labeled as liberals. (folks who don’t go to church) The interesting thing about this approach it works. Voting against one’s own interest has become the rule, not the exception. Most folks, I have spoken with, still buy into Nixon’s southern strategy. They do so without really questioning or what is more amazing, knowing what they are doing. There is a simple solution to this problem, start educating folks on the philosophy and objectives of the founders of this country. It was not to provide an easy life style for some individual, who wants to make $170,000 a year to represent the special interests of a few wealthy folks like the Koch boys or Duke. The founders of this country viewed the politician as a person who had other gainful employment, But
took time away from that employment to serve his or her nation in congress.