In the latest North Carolina poll, Public Policy Polling finds both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on the decline in their respective primaries. In Clinton’s case, it’s no doubt due to the momentum of Bernie Sanders after strong showings in the Iowa and New Hampshire contests:
Clinton – 52%
Sanders – 35%
If Clinton loses North Carolina, the race for the Democratic nomination is over. Fortunately for Clinton supporters, that doesn’t look like it’s going to happen. While the race is just about tied with white voters, Clinton has a solid advantage with blacks. Moreover, her supporters are more committed to her than Bernie’s. If Clinton has any momentum whatsoever coming out of Super Tuesday, the “soft Bernie” supporters will fall into line and her win in North Carolina will be much more than 17 points.
Now for the Republicans:
Trump – 29%
Cruz – 19%
Rubio – 16%
Kasich – 11%
Carson – 9%
Bush – 7%
This is the first time in quite a while (perhaps since Trump entered the race) where PPP hasn’t found him increasing his lead. Why has the race tightened, and Cruz is now within ten points of Trump? That’s due to the fact that people have voted already and Cruz’s win in Iowa raised his profile and made Trump look a little less inevitable. That has people looking to other candidates – people like Cruz, Rubio, and even Kasich.
The Republican race is remarkably fluid. Trump has a very strong commitment from his supporters; those 29% aren’t going anywhere. The support for the other candidates will shift around quite a bit based on what happens in the next month. Perhaps then it’s more instructive to look at favorability ratings:
Carson 63/21 (+42)
Rubio 58/26 (+32)
Kasich 45/24 (+21)
Cruz 47/36 (+11)
Trump 46/43 (+3)
Bush 35/45 (-10)
A couple things: first, North Carolina is not Bush country. I doubt South Carolina is either, but we’ll see on Saturday. As long as he has negative ratings among his fellow Republicans, Bush’s chances of winning the nomination remain at 0%. There are just too many Republicans who don’t like him – whether because he’s a Bush, or because he’s perceived as more of a moderate, or because he’s seen as in the pocket of donors. Whatever, doesn’t matter – Republicans don’t want him.
Second, favorability ratings aren’t everything because people clearly like Ben Carson the most, yet no one thinks he’s going to actually win the nomination. As for someone who has a chance, take a look at Marco Rubio’s numbers. I don’t think Rubio has really come under the microscope yet, and that could change if he catches fire – but his ability to rebound from his disastrous debate performance two weeks ago is telling. Republicans want to like Rubio, and if he can remain the most broadly acceptable and well-liked candidate, then he’ll be in a good position to consolidate establishment support against Trump later on. The one problem with Rubio: his supporters are the least committed (but not by much).
Cruz and Trump are polarizing figures. We all know about Trump. There are Republicans who just can’t stand him. As for Cruz, the “liar” and dirty tricks accusations may be taking a toll on his image. Cruz is the anti-Rubio in that his personality is his biggest weakness. He’s not likable for those who don’t prize ideological purity above all else. In a Cruz/Trump one-on-one, that could seriously limit his ability to unite the establishment behind him.
The bottom line: from here on out, the territory gets much friendlier for Hillary Clinton. She could still blow it, but Sanders’ difficulty with minority voters is going to seriously undermine his chances. As for the Republicans, there’s still time to stop Trump but time is running out. Twenty-seven days to go until North Carolina votes!
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Perhaps it is not bad to not wish to be POTUS. Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan wrote that Gerald Ford was the most like “normal” people of the presidents he’s known. In the same book he stated only half tongue-in-cheek that we should have a Constitutional provision that if someone is willing to do the things necessary to become president, that person should be prohibited from becoming president. Not bad sentiments at all.
[I’m sorry for not being able to quote Greenspan’s exact words, but I couldn’t find my copy of his book, in which he gave his impressions of the presidents.]
John: I believe Jeb Bush’s campaign has not caught fire, irrespective of his mother and W’s
endorsements and efforts, for a simple reason: He never wanted to be a candidate. Am I the only one who sees the startling similarities between the 2015-16 Jeb Bush presidential campaign and that of Teddy Kennedy in 1969? They represent two of our nation’s fabled dynasties where the political outcomes seemed almost self-fulfilling and inevitable.
My thesis is this: neither one of these sons wanted to be the president. Their families, contributors and pundits pushed them into it and those forces rolled over then no matter what they thought or felt.
I am no expert on either politician but when I was at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, I had a chance observe both Teddy and his group of Harvard advisors and friends. I arrived in June, 1968 (shortly after Bobby’s assassination) and left Cambridge in September, 1969 (after the fateful July of Chappaquiddick). Teddy’s Harvard associates, who viewed themselves as the “cabinet-in-waiting,” were stunned and disbelieving. “How could Teddy do this to us and the family?”
At that time, I thought Teddy really doesn’t want to run for president and is being pushed by his family’s legacy and ambition. But the Harvard group just assumed that he did want this, yet I wondered if any of them had really asked him.
This was confirmed for me when in August, 1969,as the leading candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination–reinforced by the pundits and polling data–Teddy gave that Hyannis Port interview to Roger Mudd. Many of us remember his rambling, incoherent answer to the soft ball question: “Why do you want to be president?” Again, his colleagues–both academic and political–were besides themselves. “Of course, he should know why he wants to be president–he’s a Kennedy, isn’t he?”
Jeb’s behavior seems almost parallel. And it shows (remember the summer of 2015?). No matter how far Jeb’s campaign goes, I don’t believe his heart is in it. Millions of tv ad dollars spent, all the stops pulled out by the family and GOP establishment and…nothing. That’s another story.)
Makes you wonder, doesn’t it? Republican caucus and primary voters seem to know it. Has anybody ever climbed to the Presidency of the United States, who did not really want it?
Interesting. Jeb certainly seems ill at ease in some odd way. Thinking of the past, wonder how an LBJ would handle the Donald. Not too gently I think!
Definitely agree about Ted Kennedy. I still don’t know what to think about Jeb Bush. I think he does want to be President; I just don’t know how hard he wants to work to get there. This is also why Trump’s “low energy” jab did so much damage – it’s what people were already thinking. It’s hard to be energetic about winning the White House if your heart is not really in it!