North Carolina Treasurer Race: Dan Blue III (D) vs. Dale Folwell (R)
Janet Cowell’s announcement that she was retiring from the State Treasurer position was a big surprise for observers of North Carolina politics. It brought with it an opportunity for the Republican Party to take back the position for the first time since the Reconstruction Era. Almost immediately, the GOP landed a top-tier recruit: Dale Folwell, head of the state Division of Employment Security and a powerful former legislator.
The race appeared to be leaning heavily towards the GOP side, when the Democrats landed a top-tier recruit of their own: Dan Blue III, former chairman of the Wake County Democratic Party and a frequent panelist on NCSpin. Despite a stronger than expected challenge from CPA Ron Elmer, Blue prevailed in the Democratic primary and appeared off to a strong start for the general election. The latest polls show Mr. Blue with a slight lead.
That was before the SEANC gave its endorsement to Mr. Folwell, a boon to the Republican’s nascent campaign. In their endorsement, the group said that Folwell would operate the office “for North Carolina and not for Wall Street.” The statement was a swipe at Blue, a former investment banker at Bear Stearns.
Blue is also being hurt by a recent controversy involving a potential conflict of interest in the office of Ms. Cowell. The SEANC is upset by Cowell’s continuing service on two boards that they say conflict with her role as Treasurer. The controversy in the Treasurer’s office should help Folwell, making this the most promising Republican pickup on the Council of State.
Blue still has a number of assets, though. He’s young, telegenic, and should bring out the black vote. Hillary Clinton is looking to compete in North Carolina this year and HB 2 continues to be an albatross around the neck of Republicans – even Republicans like Dale Folwell, who have nothing whatsoever to do with the controversial law. So at this point, we have to declare the race a pure toss-up. Both candidates have their strengths and weaknesses, making this at least for now a lesser-known but important race to watch on Election Night.
Race Rating: Pure Toss-Up
2012 Result
53.8% Cowell
46.2% Royal
Voter Registration
40.3% Democratic
30.5% Republican
28.7% Unaffiliated
70.3% White
22.3% Black
7.4% Other
Results in Other Elections
2014 Senate
48.8% Tillis
47.3% Hagan
2012 President
50.4% Romney
48.4% Obama
2012 Governor
54.6% McCrory
43.2% Dalton
2010 Senate
54.8% Burr
43.1% Marshall
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
It’s a good question. Republicans obviously made CLT’s ordinance to protect transgender people a wedge issue for this November by passing HB2. Will it pay off for them or not? Liberals believe it has backfired. Obama upped the ante with his ‘colleague’ letter to the states. I’m nervous.
Although most of the urban public (including myself) views HB2 as the albatross you speak of, I suspect that most of the rural public sees HB2 differently. A quick peek at survey results online indicates a roughly even split between North Carolinians who oppose HB2 versus North Carolinians who support HB2. A USA Today network poll showed 51% in favor and 40% against HB2. A USA Election poll showed 38% in favor and 50% against. A Civitas poll showed 47% in favor and 43% against. Do you know if anyone has done a poll which breaks down the favorability percentages by political party? I’d guess that Democrats are against HB2, Republicans are for it, and I’d be very interested in whether independents and non-traditional-party people are generally for or against HB2.