The latest poll from Public Policy Polling on their home state of North Carolina is great news for Donald Trump. Not only has his lead grown from the last poll, he’s now ahead of Hillary Clinton in general election match-ups.
The Republican primary:
Trump – 24% (+8)
Carson – 14% (+5)
Bush – 13% (+1)
Cruz – 10% (+4)
Rubio – 9% (no change)
Fiorina – 6% (+2)
Huckabee – 6% (-5)
Walker – 6% (-6)
Paul – 3% (-4)
Christie – 2% (-3)
Santorum – 2% (+1)
Kasich – 1% (+1)
Perry – 1% (-1)
Gilmore – 0% (no change)
Jindal – 0% (-1)
Pataki – 0% (no change)
Graham – 0% (no change)
If North Carolina Republicans determined the ten ‘top-tier’ debate participants, John Kasich would be exchanged for Carly Fiorina on the stage, though her increase in support is smaller than one might expect. Trump is ahead in the primary; Ben Carson takes second place. Jeb Bush also places decently, keeping his support steady.
The poll is bad news for Huckabee, Walker, Christie, and Paul. They’re all being displaced by more compelling personalities at this point. As was the case four years ago, it looks like the debates will be important in shaping the race so a strong debate next month could put them back in contention.
The Democratic primary:
Clinton – 55% (no change)
Sanders – 19% (-1)
Webb – 5% (-2)
Chafee – 2% (-2)
O’Malley – 2% (-2)
Clinton is still way ahead, not surprising for a Southern state with a high percentage of Democrats being black. I would imagine a breakdown by region would show Sanders running decently in the Research Triangle but getting trounced everywhere else. Unless Sanders can appeal to black voters (which he has never had to do before in lily-white Vermont), then he will almost certainly never be a serious threat to Clinton.
The general election, against Clinton:
Carson +7 (+4)
Rubio +4 (+3)
Trump +3 (+6)
Walker +3 (-1)
Cruz +2 (+3)
Huckabee +2 (-2)
Fiorina +1 (+1)
Kasich +1
Bush TIE (+2)
Christie -1 (+2)
Paul -4 (-5)
Most Republicans are doing better against Hillary Clinton than they were last month, possibly evidence that her favorability ratings are in decline because of scandal. Right now, Carson is the most ‘electable’ candidate in NC. Surprisingly, Donald Trump is leading Hillary by 3 but Jeb Bush only manages to tie her. Republicans surely do not want North Carolina to be close next year so nominating Paul, Christie, or Bush might be a gamble.
Carson takes 17% of the black vote, one reason why he is polling so well. And, interestingly, among ‘other’ voters (mostly Hispanics) Jeb “act of love” Bush trails Hillary by 32 while Donald “they have to go” Trump trails her by only 11. Latinos might not love Trump but they seem to like him better than Bush at this point. (Or is this simply due to a large margin of error for this demographic group?)
The bottom line: The Trump boomlet is clearly not over yet. If anything, he’s expanded his support from last month – both with Republicans and with the electorate at large.
Next, North Carolina is a swing state that the GOP will have to take off the table in order to win nationally. With Clinton’s unfavorables growing, they’re in a good position to do just that – but, right now they have several candidates who might prove ‘not ready for prime time’ (Trump, Carson) or who are polling poorly despite perceptions of moderation and electability (Jeb Bush). Indeed, I’ve always thought that the best way for Jeb Bush to win the nomination is for his conservative opponents to implode and for him to win the ‘electability’ argument. Right now he’s losing it to Donald Trump.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
I agree with Nona, in that eventually, Trump will have to define “specifics”. But for now, Trump being abrasive, non politically correct, and pugilistic is working for him. He is not only leading (but gaining) in the polls.
The usual “experts & pundits” have pronounced Trump to be “dead in the water” numerous times. And after every pronouncement that Trump is toast, he rises in the polls!
Maybe this goes to a larger issue. Could Americans be sick and tired of the spineless career politicians in Washington? Could Americans see that we’re not better off than we were six years ago? Do we want another Clinton or Bush?
Trump may not be the answer, but he saying the things that everyone else is afraid to say, and it’s about time!
I’ll go out on a limb here, and predict that Donald Trump will make it to the Republican nomination.
Donald Trump is hitting a nerve with American voters (and not just Republican ones). We are sick and tired of the spineless, do nothing career politicians in Washington. Time for an outsider!
I agree with Trump 100% on his Illegal Invader (aliens) policies! Deport them all!
Trends are always fun, aren’t they?
Trump can spew his rhetoric by talking tough, saying he’s going to do whatever, but never gives concrete answers on HOW. No one ever asks, let alone thinks about the ‘how’. People love looking at the surface of shiny, appealing objects, but refuse to get to the real by not looking deep to see what actually lies inside. The only reason he now has fans is because “he says what I feel but can’t say out loud.”
He says he would make Mexico pay for the wall. Sounds easy enough, but not realistic. Of course Mexico is not going to pay for a wall, and they’ve come out and said so. But if you want Trump as POTUS so he can “make America great, Again (didn’t know it wasn’t, but, okay), as a patriotic taxpayer, get ready to pony up at least $166 billion. At least. Think I just threw that number in the air? I’m not Trump (thank goodness).
These numbers are from experts from several groups that are from all sides of the political spectrum:
– Mass deportation: $141.3 billion
– Triple the number of Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers: $8.4 billion a year
– Wall at the southern border: around $5.1 billion, plus annual maintenance
– Nationwide E-Verify system: $2.15 billion
– Visa tracking system: $7 billion
– Mandatory detention: $1.7 billion per year
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/donald-trumps-immigration-tab-166-billion-121500.html?hp=t2_r
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/everything-donald-trumps-immigration-plan-gets-wrong/
This is the reality that bankrupt Trump won’t tell supporters like you about, because he couldn’t be bothered to take the time to calculate any of it. His talk may seem cheap, but whatever actions he decides to promote when the mood strikes is way too expensive. Americans may love his current reality-show schtick, but the rest of the world (which, as POTUS, he will have to deal with) won’t stand for it.
I agree, but none on either side can or will tell you “how.” The details are always sketchy or unworkable. Because the truth is the “how” is painful. We Americans want to vote for Santa Claus who brings “presents” with no “bills.”
See Sanders, Bernie for example.
Morris, Sanders isn’t offering “presents” with no “bills”. He knows that Americans are being ripped off. We have plenty of wealth to pay for things like Universal health care, or college tuition, we just need to move the $. Right now it’s going to fuel the world’s largest military, we give away massive amounts to profitable corporations (welfare), and un-ending loopholes for the rich to not pay taxes. Example: approx. $10 billion/year in subsidies to oil, gas and coal over the last 60 years. Reordering the way our tax $s are spent will only be “painful” to the rich and powerful.
The silver lining is that a Trump v Clinton race provides a large amount of fodder for Saturday Night Live & other comedians.
You don’t have to be a Republican to be concerned about that, he has a lot of cross-over support, too. Workers like his rhetoric because they feel threatened by foreign job takers.
What would Walker’s number be in this poll if Trump was not included in the poll? I would guess he would be in 3rd place with about 12%.
Some people say that Americans uncovering the fact that the Wisconsin Republicon doesn’t even have a college degree will expedite his loss.