Trump’s pivot to the middle–or wherever

by | Sep 14, 2017 | Editor's Blog, Politics | 5 comments

Donald Trump is having the best few weeks of his presidency. Given his demeanor, it probably won’t last but he’s getting good news and good press. As president, he’ll get credit for some economic news that should go to Obama, but he’s also going to get credit for cutting deals that reach across the aisle. He may lose some of his base, but he might gain the middle.

On the economy, real household median income rose 3.2% last year, the poverty rate fell and less than 9% of the population is uninsured. Obama may have been president, but Donald Trump will probably get the credit. People don’t vote on economic statistics. They vote on how they’re feeling and, often, those feelings lag behind statistics by a year or so. They may have been doing better last year, but they won’t start believing it until this one. The recovery from the Great Recession has been long and slow so if they start to feel a bit better about their circumstances, they’ll probably give credit to Trump.

If the economy holds, expect more people to start saying that the country is on the right track—and watch Trump’s approval ratings start to improve. Trump will also get credit for the debt ceiling deal, even if most people don’t know what it means. They will just know that he reached across the aisle to work with Democrats to get something done.

Last night, word got out that Trump has cut another deal with Democrats to protect the DREAMers without building a wall. His nationalist base is infuriated. They feel like Trump is selling them out. Even Ann Coulter called for his impeachment on twitter.

Like it or not, Trump is remaking American politics, the Republican Party in particular. He threw the movement conservatives overboard long ago. He’s rejected their small government, free trade principles. Now, he’s abandoning the Bannonites who want a protectionist, America First party that demands a halt to immigration and massive deportations.

Trump realizes he got burned with his response to Charlottesville. He’s never going to admit that he was wrong, but don’t count on him to make that mistake again. The left wants to brand him as a white supremacist but that’s giving him too much credit for believing in anything. The racists may have been helpful in securing the GOP nomination and motivating white people to vote in November, but he has no more loyalty to them than he does to anyone else.

So what’s left of the GOP? The party of Trump. He doesn’t have an allegiance to anyone but himself. He wants good ratings and good deals. He understands that the ratings will follow the deals. Americans are more tired of the political dysfunction of Washington than they are wed to any single political philosophy. When they see him work with Pelosi and Schumer on the debt ceiling and DACA, that’s the guy they voted for. In their minds, he’ll upend the political status quo to get something done.

Ironically, the guy who energized the far right to support him and the far left to oppose him may show Americans the middle. He wants to be popular and he’ll do what it takes to make people happy. He’s willing to compromise on everything and if the GOP House and Senate are too dysfunctional to deal, he’ll work with the Democrats. The result could be a centrist government that throws occasional bones to his base.

5 Comments

  1. Walt de Vries, Ph.D.

    It’s only a matter of time. Trump will become involved in several possible courses of behavior and consequences::
    (1) he will, in pursuit of his “deals” agenda, “cooperate” with GOP legislative leaders (that has failed and continues to fail), then he will try that with the Democratic legislators (sputtering along now, but will also fail) and he will then try “independent” actions such as Executive Orders (which will also fail) and finally throw up his hands and resign saying he worked so hard but everyone in the Congress, the media, the Washington elites were against him. This will be exacerbated by wholesale resignations and departures from the Trump White House staff, the Cabinet and the Administration. Yet, Trump will claim victory for his 30% of the electorate ;or
    (2) under all of the enormous pressures,Trump will have a major physical problem which will handicap him so he cannot perform his presidential duties (for which he will also blame the same groups as in (1) above); or
    (3) before the congressional investigating committees finally reach their inevitable indictments, some one–in a burst of self-perceived patriotism– will finally leak Trump’s tax returns (why hasn’t it happened before now?) revealing the Russian money laundering and other crooked deals he and his family are involved in, thus forcing a very reluctant congress to start impeachment; or
    (4) some right wing nut (“Trump deserted us”) or left wing nut (“Trump is a traitor”) will attempt an assassination that could injure Trump–immobilize him physically and/or emotionally–and force his resignation.
    What is really sad about these possibilities is that they are VERY REAL and, not unlikely.
    Does anyone believe Trump will be able to govern this country with the current congress based on their record of the last eight months?
    What a sad set of potential actions, yet they are all believable, aren’t they? This country has never faced such a hopeless and depressing condition as the current one. Now, if you add the REAL POSSIBLITY of war (see my PoliticsNC column on North Korea) to
    this mix, you could become clinically depressed.
    I never thought I would live this long to see such a demoralizing destruction of the American dream and vision. Someone please tell this old man that I am wrong and the course ahead is positive and full of hope.

    • Ebrun

      So it’s “only a matter of time?” When should we start counting? And be sure to celebrate here when the “time” comes. We’ll all be waiting anxiously. LOL

  2. Troy

    Donald Trump may have made a slight turn toward the middle/left, but the members of his radical right Cabinet are still intact. So once again while he panders and everyone sees it as a move in a positive direction, it’s just another day for Trump. His Bannonist neophytes will continue to dismantle, deregulate, and destroy those very agencies they’ve been entrusted to lead.

    Don’t expect too much too soon.

  3. Jay Ligon

    Taking the right wing for granted may be Trump’s best option.

    They don’t seem to care no matter what he does or says. They don’t mind the treason, the disclosure of classified information to our enemies, sexual perversity, the use of high office for massive profit, crude, vulgar language from the White House or the astounding incompetence of the Administration. He could even shoot innocent people on Fifth Avenue. They don’t care.

    Like the Tea Party had preceded them, these loony zealots demand mutually contradictory policies which are logically and mathematically impossible. The government cannot supply all their wants and needs while balancing the budget and cutting taxes. (The government cannot keep its hands off their Medicare.) They don’t know that, so maybe Trump shouldn’t tell them. Their demands cannot be satisfied as long as the American people insist on living under our Constitution.

    Avid consumers of Russian-produced misinformation that saturated our politics through social media, right wing publications and the dregs of the dark web, his supporters will not notice when information is published in newspapers, books, university textbooks, mainstream media or government studies. How they get all that misinformation will remain a mystery. Maybe they text each other with the latest conspiracy.

    Trump has them in his pocket no matter what, and they don’t care if he does what he promised. He can do what he wants but continue to show up to rallies where they chant: “Build that Wall” and “Lock her up.” Maybe that’s all they need. It’s their crack. Trump could become a Democrat. They don’t care.

    • Norma Munn

      And the few long term GOP Senators and House members, who profess to be dedicated to Republican policies and values, will show the backbone of a wet noodle. So why should he worry? He created the immediate crisis around DACA and now seems to be benefiting from the attempts to prevent the outrage he ushered in. Ad you point out, rational thinking and behavior has nothing to do with the Trump base. It is entertainment or “crack.” Or both.

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