Voter suppression and laws of unintended consequences

by | Jul 8, 2014 | 2014 Elections, Editor's Blog, NC Politics, Voting Rights | 5 comments

Last week, a Republican group released a study that said African-Americans voted at higher rate in the May primary this year than they did in the May primary in 2010. Republicans hailed the news as proof that their voter suppression tactics weren’t targeted at Black voters. It should have set off alarm bells. 

Too many people of both parties think that Democrats lost because African-Americans stayed home in 2010. That’s not true. While they voted at a lower rate than in presidential elections, they still voted at a higher rate than they have in previous years, including the 2006 wave election.

So what exactly would happen if the study is correct and the increased participation continues in the November election? Well, the electorate would look much more like the presidential elections. That’s bad news for Republicans.

In 2010, African-Americans made up 22% of the registered voters and 20% of the actual voters. According to the study, African-Americans this year increased their primary turnout by 30% while the overall turnout in 2014 was about 2% higher than it was in the 2010 May primary. If the general election increases by 2%, from 44% to 46%, and African-American turnout increases by 30%, then African-Americans will make up almost 24% of the electorate. 

If the 30% increase is correct, those numbers are particularly remarkable because there was little reason for Democrats to go vote since they had very few contested primaries. However, they may have made a significant difference in the one statewide race they could vote in–Supreme Court. Justice Robin Hudson beat back a barrage of negative ads to survive in the non-partisan election. 

It seems the voter suppression tactics may have backfired. The African-American community has responded by organizing, just like they have historically. The Moral Monday protests weren’t about changing the law. They were about awakening the population.

Republicans are working themselves into a lather arguing that the voter suppression tactics, which they insist on calling “voter ID,” are not racist. They’ve missed the point and they’ve failed to pay attention to history. The law they passed was classic overreach. Instead of settling for a simple voter ID bill, they eliminated same-day registration, shortened the early voting period, ended pre-registration of high school students, restricted the type of acceptable ID and moved voting locations to make them less accessible to college students. 

Even if the people who passed the laws aren’t racist, only a fool could seriously believe that the laws were not meant to shape the electorate by making voting more difficult for certain people. For African-Americans, though, the laws are clearly an affront and an insult. For a hundred years following the end of slavery, Southern whites kept blacks second class citizens by refusing them access to the ballot box. 

So when the party of white people passes laws that make voting harder, they have a terrifying sense of deja vu. But they know what to do because they’ve done it so often before. And the GOP gets to see the laws of unintended consequences up close. 

5 Comments

  1. Tim Peck

    “The African-American community has responded by organizing, just like they have historically.”

    So, you’re saying that blacks can change their behavior and will NOT be disproportionately impacted by changes in voting laws?

    You should be a witness for the defense.

    • Thomas Ricks

      Did you know that in many lawsuits involving this issue, quotes from republican leaders blatantly trying to shrink the electorate have been used?

      If you believe in your message so little that you have to make it harder for people to vote, just go home. You’re lucky most liberals aren’t into retaliation like I am.

  2. Tim Peck

    circulus in probando

  3. Eilene

    I hope you are right. Given the current nationwide climate of inaction and lack of motivation to do anything about most of the things we actually do care about, no matter our skin color, it isn’t a done deal. The African-American population has always been underrepresented. We need more of them to vote, and more of them to run for office. They are the ones who can directly articulate the things that they want changed, and they are the ones who will most likely fight to get it done. I hope they see Kay Hagan as representing their interests better than Tom Tillis, but does she really??? I barely do, and I am a life-long, dyed in blue wool Democrat.

    • Eilene

      My last two sentences were badly worded… I meant that I barely do see Kay as representing my interests… in case it was fuzzy.

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