Voters Divided on McCrory, Give Him ‘C’ Grade

by | Aug 21, 2014 | 2014 Elections, Carolina Strategic Analysis, Features, NC Politics, Poll Analysis, Polling, US Senate | 5 comments

It’s been a busy week for polls in the world of NC politics. Yesterday, PPP released their “miscellaneous” poll on everything NC-related outside of the U.S. Senate race. They looked at Governor McCrory’s approval, Richard Burr’s approval, and the various 2016 election contests in the state.

Supreme Court Race
Robin Hudson – 19%
Eric Levinson – 11%

Not sure who these people are.

McCrory Approval
43% Approve (+3)
45% Disapprove (-1)

Looks like the reports of Pat McCrory’s political demise were premature. What could account for the increase in approval rating? Teacher raises? Voters forgetting about why they dislike him in the first place? It also appears the controversy over the Duke stock hasn’t affected his standing, so either this news hasn’t had time to sink in or voters don’t care.

What letter grade would you give Pat McCrory for his term as governor so far?
A – 17%
B – 25%
C – 17%
D – 17%
F – 20%

A plurality give McCrory a B. That’s not bad. These letters probably correspond to “strongly approve, strongly disapprove” etc. A lot of the people giving ‘C’ don’t know what they’re talking about and assign that letter by default. PPP says that overall Pat McCrory gets a C (for ‘cookies’.) They probably were hoping voters would be harsher graders.

Favorable/Unfavorable
Roy Cooper 30/19 (+11)
Janet Cowell 14/9 (+5)
Allen Joines 10/8 (+2)
Grier Martin 7/5 (+2)
Anthony Foxx 15/14 (+1)

All the prospective Democrats for future office in 2016 have positive numbers. Roy Cooper is the most popular. The most popular Senate candidate might be Janet Cowell, who is a woman and also been elected twice to statewide office as Treasurer. By far the most controversial is Anthony Foxx. He won’t be entering the 2016 Senate race as a blank slate if he chooses to do so. Interestingly, his most negative ratings come from the 704 area code (Charlotte).

Governor Race 2016
Pat McCrory – 44% (no change)
Roy Cooper – 43% (+1)

McCrory’s more popular than last month but his lead in the governor’s race drops by 1 point. Go figure. Maybe liberals are more energized thanks to Cooper’s decision to stop defending the marriage amendment, but then again if you’re a liberal you’re going to be voting against McCrory anyway. (That wasn’t the case two years ago.) Still a toss-up.

Burr Approval
32% Approve
32% Disapprove

Burr, if he runs for reelection (which I doubt), starts off pretty much unknown. If he runs again, though, he’d probably be the GOP’s strongest candidate. His fundraising lately, though, has been pretty much dormant, an indication of his possible plans. My feeling is that once again an incumbent U.S. Senator from North Carolina is at the mercy of the national environment: if 2016 is a good Democratic year, Burr is probably going off into retirement, willingly or not. But if 2016 is a good Republican year, Burr or another Republican like Holding or Hudson is going to win.

2016 Senate
44% Burr, 37% Cowell
45% Burr, 35% Foxx
45% Burr, 33% Martin
45% Burr, 32% Joines

Cowell does strongest against Burr. Foxx is next. But all have low name recognition, especially the latter two. The problem with Foxx is that he’d be incredibly easy to link to Obama, who I’m sure will be just as unpopular then as he is now, if not more so. So if I were a Democrat, I’d go with Cowell. But that’s just me.

2016 President
45% Clinton, 44% Huckabee (+2)
46% Clinton, 42% Bush (-3)
47% Clinton, 42% Paul (-2)
47% Clinton, 41% Cruz
45% Clinton, 38% Christie (-3)

Bush, Christie, and Paul have lost ground against Clinton. Huckabee is doing a bit better than he was in June against her. Huckabee and Bush are not running. And I don’t see how Christie comes back. He’s doing the worst against Clinton and the trust issues with the base are still there. This might sound crazy especially after this week’s events, but I think the one to watch is Rick Perry. He’s saying all the right things and yes, while his 2012 campaign was a disaster he was also in really poor shape health-wise back then. Watch the polls, if Perry rises then I think we better start paying more attention to him.

Opinion of Democrats in the state legislature
32% Favorable
47% Unfavorable

Republicans are slightly worse, at -17. Geographically, only voters in the 919 Triangle area express approval for Democratic incumbents. Everywhere else they’re underwater, which means GOP incumbents could win if they remind their voters that the alternative could be worse.

Generic legislative ballot
44% Democrat
43% Republican

This looks like 2012, where Democrats won a bare majority of the popular vote but did disastrously in the elections anyway thanks to the power of redistricting. From the looks of these numbers, Democrats should win some seats but not too many, and PPP says as much. How that jibes with the polls showing Moffitt down 11 and other incumbent Republicans down, I don’t know. It looks to me like we’re seeing voters less enchanted with Republicans than they were in 2012, but Democrats’ own voters are not planning to show up and the result is a continuance of the status quo.

That’s it for now, but I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the Suffolk poll from yesterday, which had Hagan up by 2 points. It marks their first foray into the U.S. Senate race and also I think their first foray into North Carolina, period. What more is there to say about this Senate race? It’s a toss-up. But below is the poll average, anyway, with Suffolk included.

Averaging the Polls
Hagan – 42.7%
Tillis – 41.8%
Haugh – 5.6%

(My average differs from that of RCP because they look at head-to-heads and I include Sean Haugh.)

5 Comments

  1. Vonna Viglione

    Well, of course, figures lie and liars figure and it does sort of come down to how you interpret any set of figures. On the one had “a plurality” is one interpretation for the Governor’s score. On the other hand, a majority of people think he is in need of some “improvement”.. I have the perfect “corrective action”. Let’s elect a new and better governor in 2016 and let Governor McCrory go back to being a glad hander, public “face” for something or other. I’m sure one of those mysterious “clients” in the law firm where he was a non lawyer “employee” can probably come up with something….especially after all he’s done for them – even in a “C” level one term as Governor.

  2. Mike

    I understand why and I agree he does a fine job. I just expect something better and less rigid.

  3. Mike

    Can you write anything outside of utilizing poll numbers? Thomas writes thoughtful and persuasive pieces, what do you bring to the table? I have to see anything impressive out of you even for a conservative. Do your kind a service and step up your game or this site will continue to be one sided.

    • Thomas Mills

      Mike, I invited John to this blog as much for his analysis as his conservative perspective. I think he does a fine job.

  4. Mick

    So, come on, John, what’s preventing you from simply saying that 54% of those polled give McCrory a C or lower grade? Might it be your predilection for finding only the most positive spin you can if it involves a Republican? Yes, I think that’s why, because nothing shows a biased mindset better that your “A lot of the people giving ‘C’ don’t know what they’re talking about and assign that letter by default” comment.

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