North Carolina is getting used to national attention. The state moved to center stage when President Obama defeated John McCain in the state in 2008. That year, Kay Hagan defeated GOP superstar and incumbent Senator Elizabeth Dole. The next cycle, 2010, saw Republicans take over both houses of the legislature for the first time since Reconstruction. And in 2012, Mitt Romney narrowly defeated Obama while the GOP won the governorship and veto proof majorities in the legislature.
Even in off years, we’ve gained attention. The Republican Revolution took center stage when the General Assembly began in 2013. The GOP used its strength to reshape government in North Carolina into the image of an ALEC-based utopia. In response, Rev. William Barber and the NAACP launched the Moral Monday protests which captured the attention of the national media and shown a light on the impact of GOP policies on schools, voting rights, women’s health and the poor.
So far this cycle, we’ve seen an unprecedented barrage of political ads. Both parties see the state as essential for either capturing or holding the US Senate. According to an article by Jim Morrill of the Charlotte Observer, outside groups have spent more than $17 million attacking Kay Hagan and $9 million attacking Thom Tillis. And an article in Politico calls Tillis one of Karl Rove’s “prize horses.”
While the stakes are high, the outcome of the election has important implications for the future of North Carolina. Republicans have been saying 2008 was a fluke and that North Carolina is really still a conservative Southern state. Democrats, including me, have been saying that the state is trending blue because of demographic changes in the population. A recent Republican study showed that African-American turnout in the 2014 primary was 30% above turnout in the 2010 primary. If thats true and the same phenomena holds in November, the off-year electorate, demographically, will look a lot more like presidential years than in the past.
With all of the talk about the lousy political environment for Democrats, Thom Tillis should be a shoo-in. But he’s not. Instead, he’s trailing Hagan in the polls by about five points. A Hagan win in this environment is an ominous sign for Republicans.
The off-year electorate traditionally has been more favorable to Republicans. In the past, Black voters, a key component of the Democratic base, have voted at lower levels. If they vote in this year’s election at the same rate as a presidential year, the electorate here may have made a permanent shift. GOP presidential and statewide candidates will have a much harder time, particularly if the national political environment improves for Democrats.
If Hagan wins in this environment, Senator Richard Burr will be one of the most endangered Republican incumbents in the country. Democrats will need to recruit a strong candidate to be sure but Hagan holding the seat will make that job much easier. Speculation is already running high that Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx is considering the seat, or at least getting pressure to consider it. A Hagan victory would increase that pressure.
Conversely, a Hagan defeat might make recruitment difficult in 2016 and demoralize the Democratic base thats seems so fired up this year. However, a 2016 Democratic ticket headed by Hillary Clinton for President, Anthony Foxx for US Senate and Attorney General Roy Cooper for Governor would be formidable and could possibly usher in decades of Democratic control, at least in non-gerrymandered races.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
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