Let’s jump right into it. Here’s what we know:
1. Burr is probably running again.
Burr is putting out the word that he’s running again. He was probably planning to retire but then changed his mind after the GOP took back the Senate. His friend John Boehner also looks to be sticking around a little longer. Despite serving in the Senate for a decade now, Burr spent only the first two years being in the majority. Now that he wields more power and influence than ever as chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, another term and the chance to help the GOP keep the majority doesn’t look so bad.
2. Hagan is probably not.
I don’t think Hagan was ever even planning to run again if she lost this year. I think she’s in “wait and see” mode, leaning strongly against. She had to be courted heavily to run back in 2008, when things were shaping up to be much more favorable for Democrats. She’s a cautious politician and would probably be an underdog against Burr. The last election was also really tough on her family; does she want to go through that again? With a high possibility of losing, again?
The only way I can see Hagan running is if the environment dramatically improves for Democrats a couple months from now and the GOP Congress is highly unpopular. I’ve also heard a rumor that Hagan is angling for a federal appointment, but who knows if there’s any validity to that.
3. Burr should be favored, slightly.
Yes, 2016 will be a presidential year and Hagan almost won this year even though there was a Republican wave. But that’s because Tillis was saddled with baggage from the state legislature. Burr has none of that and will be running as an incumbent. Incumbents tend to be tougher to beat. Even in a neutral environment, I’d give him an edge. And if Obama is still very unpopular two years from now, 2016 will be a good year to be a Republican. Burr would easily be able to make the race a referendum on Obama. Moreover, North Carolina would probably become less of a pickup possibility while Democrats spend money trying to oust incumbent Republicans in “must-win” states like Illinois and Wisconsin.
4. It will be close.
“Close” being a relative term. But in the last forty years, no U.S. Senate contest in North Carolina has been won with 55% or more of the vote. That’s a pretty impressive track record which gives North Carolina the status of having the most consistently competitive Senate races in the country. That doesn’t mean Burr will be in a toss-up contest necessarily, but it does mean there’s a very, very good chance the race will be within single digits.
The bottom line? Democrats need two things if they want to take out Burr. They need a strong candidate, and they need the political winds to start blowing their way. Right now Democrats are excited about the prospect of a Hagan repeat bid, an indication that maybe they don’t have any other top-tier candidates waiting in the wings. That doesn’t mean Burr can rest easy if Hagan doesn’t run. Lots of times, “weaker” candidates turn out to be surprisingly strong. Hagan herself can attest to that.
By the way, PPP will be polling the Senate race this weekend.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Would Anthony Foxx be considered for a serious candidate? I’d vote for him against Burr.
I think it will be real hard to defeat Senator Burr. The only way he will not win is if he is a Vice Presidential running mate.
He has done a good job and is well like across the state. Of course the Tea Party nutcases don’t like him but name one elected official they do like. You can’t do it, can you?
“He has done a good job and is well like across the state. ”
That’s a bit of a stretch. Poll after poll show that he is largely unknown with a plurality saying they “don’t know” when asked if they approve of the job he is doing. That can play to his advantage — if he is a blank slate he can project whatever image he wants for himself at campaign time. But to say he is well liked is a bit off the mark. His approval rating has always been lower than Kay Hagan’s. Of course his disapproval has always been lower too, but then again Sen. Burr has long been, arguably, the most anonymous senator in the country.
In the days of Citizens United name recognition can be very overrated in political campaigns. A wad of cash from any number of groups can take an unknown candidate and make him or her a formidable opponent. For that matter it isn’t as if Richard Burr’s name is really all that well known across the state. For a two term US Senator he has a remarkable low profile.
Possible Democrats who won’t have to give up an office to run? Former NC Treasurer Richard Moore, former US Rep Brad Miller spring quickly to mind.
Two years is several eons in politics. At this point in the 2008 cycle Elizabeth Dole was in better shape than Burr is now. Top tier Democrats took a pass and even Kay Hagan, totally unknown outside her NC Senate district had to be heavily lobbied to make the race.
Any Democrat who can come across as a credible candidate and raise the kind of money needed will make this a race in a presidential year. Given NC’s status as a purple state, albeit with the slightest of hue of red, this will be a race.
One potential double edge sword will be the governor’s race. Will it overshadow the Senate election by sucking all the oxygen out of the room? Or will the polarization the state is experiencing spill over into the Senate race in a way that the fate of both races hangs on the other?
Zach: I’ve never heard of her, so I can’t speak to her qualifications or abilities, but I’m thinking Democrats will need someone with at least *some* name recognition. Also, and this isn’t a huge problem but it is a problem, she hasn’t voted since 2008.
UGH, sorry, that’s the wrong Melinda Lawrence who hasn’t voted since 2008, my apologies. The first part still works, though.
How about a “washington outsider”- melinda lawrence who retires from NC justice center at the end of the year. She would be an excellent candidate no?
Mike L: And two of the Democrats’ most high profile figures — Attorney General Roy Cooper and State Senator Josh Stein — are already committed to running their own statewide races. And as you said, it’s going to be a tough sell to get someone like Wayne Goodwin or Janet Cowell to give up their current statewide office to run against Senator Burr.
Seems to me it would be difficult to find a democrat currently in statewide office to go against Burr b/c by doing so, in 2016, that democrat would basically have to give up his or her office to compete against an entrenched incumbant. It was a bit different in 2010 when Elaine Marshall ran against Burr b/c as she was not up for re-election herself in 2010 when she lost she just stayed Secretary of State…
The Democrats have no candidate, and I haven’t heard anyone talking about any realistic prospects. Senator Burr is looking really good for re-election, but it’s still early.
Hagan is gonna run and she’ll win. NC will have a Democratic wind in it’s sails. Clinton, Cooper, Hagan. Tough year for a Republican.