There are two narratives going around about the standing of Senator Richard Burr in 2016. The first is that Democrats don’t really have a top-tier candidate and in the absence of one Burr will coast to reelection. That’s not quite right.

But it’s still more accurate than Narrative #2, which is that, despite a GOP wave in 2014, Hagan barely lost. Which means that, with presidential turnout, Democrats start out with no less than 50/50 odds at taking out Burr, with the right candidate. And this right candidate is invariably identified as Kay Hagan, possibly the only Senate candidate in history whose profile became elevated through losing.

First, let’s assume Burr runs again. According to Politico, Tar Heel state operatives think he’s gearing up for a run. In the past, Burr was thought to be considering retirement because all his friends were retiring and he hasn’t had a very fun time in Washington. But now that Burr is going to be in the majority once again, he may have changed his mind. Republicans have enough of a margin in the Senate that their majority might not be short-lived. Taking the chair of the Intelligence Committee, Burr is going to be more influential than ever before. Why leave just when things are starting to get fun again?

If Burr does run, then he starts out as a modest favorite for reelection. He would be favored even in a completely neutral environment. He’ll have the advantage of incumbency, will probably raise a lot of money, and is a likable figure. But the environment will make or break his reelection bid. If Republicans do something stupid like shut down the government or try to impeach Obama, then watch out. But it’s equally likely that Obama in 2016 will look like Bush in 2008, in which case he’ll drag down Democrats everywhere.

Burr does have low approval ratings. But this is more about him being unknown than being unpopular. It’s important not to confuse the two, as many Democrats did in 2010. Burr’s anonymity has served him well. In his past two campaigns, he would lay low, then take control of the message and effectively redefine himself before voters in the final weeks before the election. There will be polls soon assessing Burr’s reelection prospects, and they’ll likely find him with low approval ratings. I imagine if a Burr/Hagan race was polled, Hagan would lead because her name recognition just soared through the roof in the last campaign while Burr hasn’t really been visible to the average voter for four years. But I doubt Hagan will run. Who’s going to run instead? No one knows. Anthony Foxx would be the obvious choice, but he’s already promised Burr he won’t run and if Obama is unpopular in 2016, a candidate coming out of his administration would be less than ideal.

Democrats shouldn’t let the fact that they don’t have an obvious nominee discourage them. After all, every big name passed on the Senate race in 2008, and we know how that turned out. And regardless of how unpopular Obama is or how unpopular the Congress is, expect a close race, and by that I mean within single digits. No U.S. Senator from North Carolina has been elected with 55% or more of the vote in 40 years. Burr came close in 2010, but even a Republican wave and an opponent with no national support couldn’t do the trick. This state consistently has the most competitive Senate races of any state in the nation, and that’s not likely to change any time soon. Burr probably won’t have a cakewalk no matter who is opponent is. He’ll still have to campaign, he’ll still have to raise money, and he’ll have to be ready.

Still, at this point Democrats are much more likely to knock off McCrory than to knock off Burr. Unlike Burr, McCrory will be much less reliant on the national environment. He’s already drawn a tough opponent and the race will be more of a reflection on how voters feel about his tenure in Raleigh. Burr starts off as a modest favorite. McCrory is about 50/50.

9 Comments

  1. TED-ZEE-MAN

    I SAY THAT IT SHOULD BE EASY TO DEFEAT RICHARD BURR BY SIMPLY RUNNING AGAINST HIS VOTING RECORD IN THE U.S. SENATE. I WOULD DAILY MAKE AN ISSUE OF ONE BILL OR PIECE OF LEGISLATION THAT HE VOTED AGAINST OR IN FAVOR OF THAT HAS HURT THE PEOPLE OF NORTH CAROLINA.

    I WOULD FORCE HIM TO HAVE TO DEFEND WHAT HE HAS DONE OR WHAT HE HAS NOT DONE TO PROTECT AND SERVE THE RESIDENTS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

  2. Beverly

    I have known Richard Burr since our time together at Wake Forest University. He was about as “anonymous” there and he is in working for our state. He was on the football team but nobody knew that. His father was a local well-liked pastor of Winston-Salem’s largest church. I liked his father very much.
    Burr held parties in his parents’ basement which included everything from pot to drinking games, to whatever. Of course, we all had our college days stories but he was nothing special in personality or leadership. He was bland.
    At our last college class reunion, he looked very uncomfortable, and few people even spoke to him. He didn’t stay very long. I stayed away because I am very involved in Democrat politics and I would have ripped him to shreds over his “follow-the crowd” voting record, his lack of humanity voting, and for filibustering his own Veterans Aid bill – even though he was the ranking Republican on the Veterans Affairs Committee.
    He sends out a newsletter about once a month which I respond to pointing out every lie and misleading comments about what he has worked on.
    He is never in NC and I actually discovered he knew almost nothing about the coal ash spill by Duke Energy. He didn’t even know McCrory had passed legislation letting Duke Energy off the hook and stating Duke could raise their rates on we the customers for their incompetence and 20 year knowledge those coal ash pits were leaking into every major river in NC and trying to hide it.
    He has been a do-nothing Senator and has no accomplishments to run on. He brags about being a co-sponsor of certain bills. Unless you know that being a co-sponsor means you just signed your name saying you support it and do nothing else to get it passed, you would think he cares.
    He got his son, Justin, a seat in the NC state legislature but that is about all he has done since he was elected Senator.
    In his last newsletter he was boasting about being ranking member on the Intelligence Committee. Among other things, I reminded him no one outside of Washington cares what committee you are on and has no clue what any committee does. They care about what he is doing for their lives and benefit and he ranks 0 on that.
    My friends from Wake Forest, most who live in NC, think he is a jerk and we will be passing the word Burr is not worthy to be a Senator. Many of my friends have high-profile jobs – 2 judges as one example.
    Burr is not really conservative. He is not really anything. He blows with the wind come each issue.

  3. Roger

    Kay Hagan voted against the Dream Act and just yesterday…as a lame duck…and nothing to worry about…voted in FAVOR of the Keystone Pipeline. I really hope like heck that she does not run because like a lot of progressives I’d have a hard time voting for her.

  4. Kay H.

    ‘[McCrory has’ already drawn a tough opponent…’

    Who is this referring to?

    • Troy

      I would guess, not knowing John Wynne’s intent, Roy Cooper.

    • Beverly

      It’s Roy Cooper, our current State Attorney General, and he is one solid man. I have met him twice at Democratic functions and he is not a “glad-hander”. He is smart, down-to-earth, speaks with authority, and knows every single McCrory disaster and weak point since he has had a front row seat.
      Right now he is working hard behind-the-scenes gathering support so when he does announce many people will know exactly who he is. He can speak intelligently unlike McCrory who is about as eloquent as Bush was. McCrory has nothing to run on – we have had nothing but disaster after disaster he created.
      He has alienated everyone except Duke Energy.
      He has created NO jobs despite what he claims and his sunny view of NC’s economy has nothing to do with him. The whole nation is riding a wave of economic recovery due to President Obama He signed legislation protecting Duke Energy from accountability in their massive coal ash spill into the Dan River – which is still not being cleaned up with any speed. The legislation says Duke has 15 years to clean up 4 (of their 31) sites and they CAN raise rates on we their customers to pay for it.
      McCrory is toxic and Cooper is well-equipped to tell every tale of McCrory’s failings

  5. Lex

    As ranking minority member on the Veterans Affairs Committee, Burr has been absolutely AWOL on some long-standing problems of veterans, particularly delayed disability compensation-and-pension payments, a problem on which the Winston-Salem regional VA office is among the nation’s worst. I would make sure every service member and veteran in the state knew about that.

    And while he doesn’t talk like a Tea Partier, he absolutely votes like one. That needs to be made very, very clear by his opponent.

  6. Frank McGuirt

    What’s he done?

    • larry

      Absolutely nothing. But gosh he has low approval ratings because he is unknown. Isn’t that great for the senior Senator from North Carolina?

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