If you thought North Carolina politics can get a bit rough sometimes, you might want to take a trip down to Louisiana, the setting of a very ugly governor’s race.
Here’s the backstory: Louisiana is a mess, both candidates agree on that. And who are the candidates? Democrats have nominated John Bel Edwards, an attorney, state legislator, and Army guy. On the Republican side, the candidate is someone you might be familiar with: U.S. Senator David Vitter. While Vitter is a Family Guy, he’s perhaps best-known for his role in the D.C. Madam scandal. Basically, he visited prostitutes and got caught.
Until recently, the Democrats have tried to subtly make “character” an issue in the race. This Louisiana John Edwards seems like a fairly honorable guy, and his campaign makes a big deal out of his Army career and his graduation from West Point (no word if he received a scholarship.) Vitter’s strategy? “Obama, Obama, Obama.” That’s basically it.
That was before the race in Kentucky. Republican Matt Bevin was elected despite trailing in almost every poll. It wasn’t a close victory, either. The polls were off, big-time.
While surveys have Edwards’ lead as too-big-to-fail, the Kentucky result spooked the Democrats. The Edwards campaign decided that subtle is not the way to go, and it’s time to throw the kitchen sink at Vitter. The result? This brutal ad, which says Vitter chose prostitutes over patriots and invites Louisianans to make a choice of their own. (Will you choose a guy who solicits prostitutes over a true patriot?)
Of course, Vitter responded. It’s the kind of ad that needs to be responded to. In it, Vitter basically says: “Look, I betrayed my family. I did a bad thing. But that was a long time ago. I earned redemption. But Louisiana is in deep trouble. It’s time we talk about the things that matter: Obama, Obama, Obama.”
So there you have it, the two issues defining this race: whores and Obama. Both are negatives with most Louisiana voters. The question is, are voters willing to overlook Vitter’s character issues just because they’re so opposed to Obama? Until recently, it looked like the answer was no way. But after Kentucky, people just aren’t sure. While Edwards still has a big lead, could the polls be wrong again?
It can’t be overstated just how toxic Obama is with Louisianans if Vitter wins. At the state level, the environment is great for the Democrats. They have an excellent candidate while the Republicans have a very flawed one. Vitter’s leading rival in the primary even endorsed Edwards. If Vitter wins, it’s time for Louisiana Democrats to pack it in; their party has been murdered and the culprit is Obama.
The result here will also have implications for the governor’s race in North Carolina next year. If Vitter pulls off an upset, that won’t bode well for Attorney General Roy Cooper. It looks like McCrory will be able to drastically cut off his crossover appeal with moderate Democrats with the “Obama, Obama, Obama” strategy.
North Carolina is not Kentucky or Louisiana. But President Obama has shredded the Democratic Party among Southern voters and is a threat to any candidate hoping to claim the votes of old-school Democrats. If Louisiana follows Kentucky, then the old way for Democrats to win in this state is completely closed off, and it’s time to throw the Hunt/Easley playbook out the window … for good.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
“That was before the race in Kentucky. Republican Matt Bevin was elected despite trailing in almost every poll. It wasn’t a close victory, either. The polls were off, big-time.”
Baloney, John. The polls weren’t off; the voting machines were. Every poll was right about every race in Kentucky right up to and during election day–except the top of the ticket. Every candidate ahead in the polls the day before election day won, by a margin almost identical to those polls — except the top of the ticket. At the top of the ticket, votes flipped during election day from Democratic to Republican in all the big-city, high-population counties of Kentucky, where Democrats have the registration advantage. And the Democratic candidate, ahead by 3 to 5 points in every poll for the month up to election day, lost by 9 points — a 14-point flip that happened during the 12 hours voting places were open.
Coincidence? Hardly. The same thing happened in Florida, Maryland, Michigan, and Illinois, where only the governor’s race — the top of the ticket — mysteriously didn’t match the polls, including EXIT polls at the polling stations. All four blue or purple states unexpectedly got a Republican governor despite every poll showing he’d lose. And all four state — plus Kentucky — used voting machines without a paper trail provided by a company formerly owned by, and still managed by and dedicated to, Republican activists.
Until this country cleans up the corrupt voting machine industry and requires both paper trails — a receipt for every voter as he or she registers their vote, and a permanent receipt record for recounts — we’ll have illegitimate governors and senators in states across the country.
Cooper’s 12 year law suit from the 2000 with the person he was running again for attorney general. 12 years to settle a law suit and Roy wants to be governor.
WTF are you talking about??
“President Obama has shredded the Democratic Party among Southern voters…” Excuse me: shouldn’t that be “overt, toxic racism (combined with ignorance, either willful or induced) has shredded the Democratic Party among Southern voters”? Aside from a year in Pittsburgh, I’ve lived in the South (specifically North Carolina) all my life; and I’m not aware of anything the Obama administration has done that has brought me anything but good.
No one gets a scholarship to West Point — if you are admitted, it’s an all-expense-paid education. If Edwards graduated from West Point, then he had the equivalent of a scholarship.
Kentucky should be proof enough to every one that we desperately need electronic voting machine paper trails; exit polls are never wrong, but something else surely is; improbable/ unexplainable election victories
The idea that Diaper Dave Vitter “earned” redemption is laughable. He pretty much admits that he engaged prostitutes in multiple jurisdictions where that is illegal. He has never been indicted (equal justice?) much less paid any penalty for his lawbreaking. So in what way did he “earn redemption” or atone in any way.
Louisianans are known to be tolerant of all sorts of things, so I imagine his diaper fetish and paying prostitutes would not, in and of themselves, be a deal breaker. But some of the more colorful Louisiana politicians with various flaws and sexual peccadillos who won elections were at least likable. And were not huge hypocrites. They weren’t Bible thumping, “family values” a$$holes telling everyone else how to live and throwing stones from their glass houses.
I think being a huge hypocrite and dickhead has finally caught up to the guy. You have multiple prominent Republicans endorsing the Democratic candidate and the polling data sure looks like he loses.
I think we are looking at a similar situation as the David Duke v. Edwin Edwards race.
The dominance of the GOP in Louisiana notwithstanding, bet on Vitter to lose.
However the race in Louisiana turns out, it would be major league foolish to infer much significance for next year’s statewide races in North Carolina from the result.
North Carolina is now Not Conscious. I’ve not heard a thing out of Roy Cooper that was in anyway at all something that would inspire me to vote for him, or more over give him money, or lead others in his direction.
The one great leader does in fact make a difference. Obama has made as much of a difference towards the good as his limited experience and world view could allow.
NC moves now backwards. Luther Hodges moved it forwards creating a place where businesses got together. New Yorkers put up the money since none of the cotton money would.
25 percent of North Carolinians live in food insecurity, and if that isn’t poverty I don’t know what is.
It is all because there are people with power and money in NC that truly want it that way. Naming them isn’t all that difficult.
Most of what happens is arranged in secret in NC, then put into effect of a sudden. In other states they do it more in the open.