2020 predictions

by | Jan 1, 2020 | Editor's Blog | 5 comments

With the beginning of a new decade as well as a new year, I’ll venture into a few predictions. After the election of Donald Trump, I no longer have a lot of confidence in my ability to predict the electorate. That said, here goes.

First, for the next decade. I predict North Carolina will continue to grow and will pick up one Congressional seat after the 2020 census and be poised to pick up another in 2030. That will give us growing influence in presidential elections and House races. I also predict that the increasing population will lead to a more Democratic state. By the end of the decade, both US Senators from North Carolina will be Democrats and the governor will be, too. The Congressional delegation will continue to be more evenly split because of gerrymandering. Gerrymandering will also protect Republicans in the state senate, though their majority will dwindle by the end of the decade. Democrats will dominate the state house for most of the decade. 

Which leads to the new year. The election this year will be overwhelmingly driven by the presidential contest, which will be nasty and loud in the state. In the Democratic primary here, Joe Biden will win the state because of the unshakable support of African-American voters. New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg will do surprisingly well here with a robust organization and if Amy Klobuchar has momentum coming out of Iowa, she could surprise us, keeping a tight three-way race. If Democrats nominate Biden, Klobuchar or Bloomberg, Trump loses in a landslide nationally, and loses North Carolina by a more narrow margin. If they nominate Sanders, Trump will win in a landslide here and probably nationally. I don’t think Warren can win North Carolina, but she could keep it close and might win nationally. 

Roy Cooper will be re-elected governor. It’s hard to unseat a sitting governor and Cooper hasn’t done anything that galvanizes opposition outside of the usual GOP critics. Republicans have tried to manufacture scandals but the public isn’t buying them.

Still, it won’t be an easy campaign. I suspect Dan Forest will win the GOP nomination fairly easily and a ton of money will come into the state to support him. However, the state is not very welcoming to hard core social conservatives and that’s what he is. I predict Cooper wins 52-48 if Trumps gets defeated, but it’s closer if Trump wins.

In the Democratic primary for US Senate, I think Cal Cunningham will win, mainly because of the money coming in behind him. However, Erica Smith will keep the race a lot closer than most observers now think. Cunningham will benefit from the large primary turnout driven by the presidential contest. In November, if Trump wins the state, Thom Tillis gets re-elected. If Trump loses, the Democratic nominee will win. 

In the legislature, Democrats will narrowly take back the state house if the Democratic nominee for president wins the state. If Trump wins it again, Republicans will control the redistricting process completely. And here’s a 2021 prediction. If Democrats win one chamber and Republican win the other, they will pass redistricting reform that takes map-drawing out of the hands of legislators. 

5 Comments

  1. Paul Lawler

    You mentioned drawing legislative/congressional districts and left the ambiguous comment ‘they will take map drawing out of the legislators’ hands without making it clear which crowd is ‘they.’ Proposals and partisan actions surrounding non-partisan district drawing commissions will be interesting to watch. support for independent commissions seems to be strongest among the ‘outs’ and weakest among the ‘ins.’ If your prediction that the state will be solidly democratic by the end of the decade is correct then Dems have an incentive to keep the crayons in the control of the general assembly. The GOP has an incentive to do one last map drawing in-house and then switch to a commission of political virgins for future map making. Who does what and how the other side responds will be an interesting story in 2020 or maybe 2022
    .

  2. cocodog

    Trump has made some bad decisions, backed the wrong people, and allowed his personal greed to overshadow his obligation as president. Coupled with numerous prevarications, commencing with the size of the crowd attending his inauguration to his intelligence and personal wealth most folks have tuned him out.
    The Mueller Report followed by impeachment have not improved his chances of reelection. The article, written by the managing editor of the Billy Graham publication Christian Times did not exactly elevate him to sainthood.
    If it came to past, he is found to be backing anti-gun legislation, he will have lost most of his single-issue voters.
    I seriously doubt he will be reelected. But 2016 shocked everybody, including Trump.

  3. ken Leary

    I read as far a your having Biden winning the NC state primary. I’m voting for Sanders in the primary, and if by any chance he loses i’ll be voting Green, or for Trump in November. It’s according to how corrupt the democratic party becomes this year.

  4. fgcarter

    I am assuming that in paragraph 4, last sentence, you mean if Trump wins rather than “if Trump loses.”

Related Posts

GET UPDATES

Get the latest posts from PoliticsNC delivered right to your inbox!

You have Successfully Subscribed!