Watching the early vote numbers in North Carolina, I don’t see the makings of a wave election—at least not in the sense of one party gaining a huge majority over the other. We’re certainly having a swell as to the number of people showing up at the polls. While Dr. Bitzer notes that the numbers are slowing, we’re still closer to a 2016 pace than a 2014 one.
As I’ve said before, a wave happens because one side is hypermotivated to vote. One side is depressed and the middle breaks heavily for the motivated side. This year, both sides are clearly motivated to go to the polls.
In comparing 2016 to 2018, so far Democrats are 60,000 shy of their same-day total in 2016. Republicans are 6,000 votes above their 2016 numbers and unaffiliated voters are 5,000 votes ahead of theirs. Still, Democrats have 90,000 more votes than Republicans. For perspective, in 2016, Clinton won the early vote by 77,000 votes, despite Democrats casting almost 200,000 more early votes than Republicans.
There’s a lot of uncertainty going on here. Republicans are fairly stable in their registration numbers. They’ve been at about 30% of the overall electorate for over a decade, give or take a percentage or two. Democrats have been losing registration share for 50 years as the state transitions from the one-party South. The last of the old Jessiecrats (or Dixiecrats or Reagan Democrats, or whatever you want to call them) are dying off. Those Democrats are being replaced by unaffiliated voters, many of whom are voting primarily for Democrats as opposed to the Jessiecrats who were voting for Republicans.
Also, in 2016, only 34% of the votes were cast on election day. The other 64% were cast early. The 2018 vote looks remarkably like the 2016 vote in the terms of percentages. In 2016, Democrats cast 42% of the early votes, Republicans 32% and Unaffiliateds 26%. In other words, Democrats are a point ahead of their numbers, Republicans are two points down and Unaffiliateds are tracking the same.
In 2016, Unaffiliated voters broke heavily for Republicans in the early vote. We don’t know how they’re voting this year. They voted for Trump two years ago despite finding him unappealing. Without Clinton on the ballot, they may vote to send Trump a message since they still don’t like him much.
I suspect Democrats will have a good year, but probably not a great one. I could change my mind as people continue to vote. I could also be wrong. I’m assuming that Republicans are getting all of the Republican votes and Democrats are getting most of the Democratic vote. Maybe some Republican women are peeling off. Maybe Democrats have consolidated their vote. Maybe the unaffiliated voters will break huge for Democrats. Who knows?
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
0 Comments