A wave or a ripple?

by | Feb 5, 2018 | Editor's Blog | 9 comments

We’re hearing a lot about a Democratic wave emerging in 2018. I’ve written about it. So has just about every other Democratic pundit. Even Republicans are worried about one. However, I’m starting to have my doubts.

Sure, Democrats will do better this year than they have in past. All the fundamentals are with them. The party out of the White House almost always picks up seats in midterms. The Democratic base is motivated. They’re recruiting good candidates up and down the ballot. Elected Republicans are retiring in droves. Democrats have good reasons to be optimistic.

A wave, though, has three fundamental features: a motivated base on one side, a demoralized base on the other and middle that breaks overwhelmingly for the side that’s motivated. While the Democratic base is certainly coming out strong in November, the other two factors are less certain. The political environment feels less ominous for Republicans than it did at the end of the year.

Three factors are influencing the improving environment for the Republicans.

First, the economy is getting better. For the first time since the Great Recession, all of the world’s major economies are growing. Wages are finally starting to increase after years of stagnation. There’s a good chance of increased economic growth and increased consumer confidence. It’s not necessarily anything Donald Trump has done, but he’ll get credit since he’s in office. That’s just the way it works.

Second, the tax cut will help the Republicans. After months of being demoralized by the ineffectiveness of the GOP Congress, the Republican base is more unified and energized. Donors are opening up their wallets as the windfall from the tax cuts increases their wealth. They got a double bonus. Reducing the corporate tax rate will increase the value of their stock portfolios and lowering the top marginal income tax rate will reduce their tax burden. According to my Facebook focus group, the tax cuts are getting more popular as people see more money in their paychecks.

Third, despite the efforts of the press and Democrats, Trump’s behavior has been normalized. We crossed a line when the public decided to shrug at Trump paying off a porn star to hide an affair. We will no longer be shocked by anything Trump does or says. His outrageous behavior won’t drive moderates toward Democrats because they’ll ignore it. Trump won’t be the drag on the ticket that he appeared to be just a few weeks ago because people just don’t care.

Democrats will likely do well in November. They could do very well, but I’m not as optimistic about a wave as I was a month ago. If people start feeling good about their personal situations, they’ll be reluctant to vote for change on a large scale. That will benefit the party in power and that’s the Republicans.

9 Comments

  1. Jim

    Too much talk about Trump and the Republicans coming from all of you as well as the National media. Democrats need to have more of a message than we’re not Trump or the rest of the Republicans. They need to talk about the middle class and why they are a better fit for them. They need to talk about voting rights, They need to talk about immigration. The need to talk about how much this new tax law benefits the wealthy and corporations. They need to talk about healthcare and social security. They need to talk about our crumbling education system. They need to talk about our crumbling infrastructure. They need to get off the couch and get out and vote!

  2. Kelly Garvy

    I wonder the same thing, but I’m mostly curious about the independents/unaffiliated. Yes, they could be normalized to Trump’s behavior like everyone else. But, from my conversations with friends (millennials) who didn’t vote or voted for Trump (I’m from Florida it’s weird there), I don’t think they thought the GOP would be so bad. They didn’t think the GOP would throw out all climate action, they didn’t think they wouldn’t go after prison reform, they didn’t think the GOP would dismantle all public protections for consumers, they didn’t think the GOP would start going after abortion, didn’t think they’d be so xenophobic towards immigrants and muslims. I get the feeling that the people I’ve had conversations with thought Trump and the GOP would be more socially moderate but they would get more money in their pockets. Millennials don’t really care about affairs as long as their consensual – it’s not really a sticking point and also it is not at all shocking that Trump had an affair with a porn star. No one cares because he’s a garbage person and that’s no secret.

  3. walt de vries, ph.d.

    Add another variable to this mix: Chances are the investigating committees (and the special prosecutor) are more than likely to issue preliminary if not final reports before the November election. For the life of me, I cannot see how those findings will help Republican congressmen and women, especially if they have been tied to and have been sycophant, vocal, Trump.supporters. Those findings will not help Republican candidates. Plus, I am not so confident that the economy is going to be surging along.

  4. Chaboard

    “First, the economy is getting better. ”

    In the first week of February. But here’s the thing….we are well past the length of the average upturn, well past the record for most consecutive months of job growth, near full employment, just passed a contractionary tax bill that takes money out of the economy and pays companies to invest in automation, sitting on a massive stock market bubble that could pop at any time (today being likely just a warning rather than the real thing) and…..with a Fed intent on raising interest rates to stymie any and all signs of wage growth.

    Yeah, the economy *could* be still getting better by November. But it’s at *least* even money that it’s started sliding by then. There’s a limit to how long the Obama/Yellen economy can keep chugging in the face of outright sabotage.

  5. Randell Hersom

    How do you walk within an mile of politics without noticing the marked difference in enthusiasm between progressives and the Democratic establishment. Tom Perez is headed in the exact wrong direction, turning the energized Sanders base into literal outsiders with committee purges disposing of ALL Sanders delegates from the 2016 convention, even as North Carolina continues to vote them into the Democratic National Committee. The answer is with the people, it is not with politics as usual. We need to offer a batter product.and that product asks the people what is wanted or needed and does it. Period. There will be cringes and my ideal candidate does proclaim and even cajole based on what is right, but when the time comes must represent his district. The cringes will be far less in scope than the cringes we have experienced daily since November 2016. Do not take the voter for granted. The people will notice this and show appreciation at the polls.

  6. Rick Gunter

    Look, maybe I am being foolish, but it is a long while before the November election. I truly believe there will be massive political bombsheels going off by that point regarding our very tainted president. Maybe it will not be enough for Democrats to gain a ton of congressional seats, but my money is on them doing so. If this country excuses what has happened to it for a few coins in a paltry tax cut that is a fraud to begin with on the lower and middle classes, then we deserve what we have. And what we have is treasonous or borders on it.

  7. David Scott

    I am in total agreement with your analysis and for the same reasons. At least in NC, the very same people who voted for Trump and his Republican colleagues will vote Republican again in November. These folks are either ‘true believers’ and incapable of connecting the dots/thinking critically or are gullible, reality show-professional wrestling fans. When you add in the Trumpvangelicals, who think Trump is the Messiah, and those who continue to vote against their own interests, you have a majority in this once semi-progressive state.

    A word to the wise to Democrats: Don’t count your chickens and get off your duffs!

  8. A.D. Reed

    I have to wonder what evidence there is that “moderates” or, more to the point, independents, consider Trump’s behavior normalized. The media have given up slappin’ themselves upside the head every time another outrage surfaces, but have the people? I haven’t seen evidence of that, and would be curious about what polling or other evidence there is to show it.

    • Norma Munn

      I agree, except that i find myself ignoring the Trump insanity more and more. That is not quite the same as normalizing his conduct, but it is in that part of the spectrum. And the Trump voters I know personally, while apparently rational people with a conscience, show zero interest in changing their minds. They are not poor whites,not economically disadvantaged in any way, and they are well educated, so to continue with their support baffles me. Although to be honest, it always baffled me. I also don’t see racism at work either, but I guarantee they are voting GOP in the fall. All of which leads me to think that the acceptance of his outrages is at leas a shrug.

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