This week, we started edging back into COVID panic again. Some places started masking up again. One friend said an organization with which he works is considering cancelling or delaying a retreat. I think it’s all alarmism, driven largely by bad headlines and spiking COVID cases. 

Despite all we’ve heard over the past few days, vaccinated people are well-protected against the virus. The spikes in cases, hospitalizations, and, soon, deaths are driven almost exclusively by unvaccinated people. While a very few vaccinated people are getting the virus, you probably have a greater chance of dying in a car accident than you do of getting COVID, much less getting hospitalized or dying of it, if you’ve gotten your shot. 

In addition, the vaccinated people who are getting COVID aren’t getting very sick. Out of almost 165 million vaccinated Americans, only 6,239 fully vaccinated people have been hospitalized. That’s about one in every 26,000 people. Only 1,263 vaccinate people have died or about one of every 125,000 vaccinated people. Your chances of dying in a car accident are one in 107. I suspect those vaccinated people who are getting sick or dying also have other factors, but I haven’t found any data on that yet. I also bet those vaccinated people are disproportionally living in areas with large numbers of unvaccinated people where the virus is far more prevalent. 

This current minor panic began with a series of headlines that indicated that vaccinated people were testing positive for COVID, that an outbreak in Provincetown, MA, was primarily among vaccinated people, and that the Delta variant is as “contagious as chicken pox” and that vaccinated people who have the virus can spread it. The Dispatch newsletter breaks it down pretty good this morning, but I’ll give my synopsis.

All of the headlines were somewhat sensationalist with little context, even if the articles themselves were better. We’ve always known that the vaccine had a margin of error. Moderna and Pfizer told us that they are 95% effective. To date, they’ve proven to be far more than that. The number of vaccinated people who have tested positive is about 0.1%, not five percent. The Provincetown outbreak took place in a party town in the middle of the July 4^th celebration, with people crammed in public places drinking and frolicking. Still, the percentage of people who got COVID was tiny. Finally, the study referenced by the New York Times about the danger of the Delta variant tells us that it is highly contagious and that vaccinated people who get the virus can transmit it. We knew it was contagious and we know that anybody, vaccinated or not, who has the virus should isolate themselves and wear a mask if they must be in public until they are no longer contagious. 

While the panic this weekend seems overblown, there are real concerns. The Delta variant is affecting children more that other strains. Pediatric hospitals are seeing an alarming increase among children and even infants. The vaccine has not been approved for children under 12, though Pfizer and Moderna have begun clinical trials on children 5 to 11 years old. With schools starting this month, masks for kids under 12 and the people who work with them seems a reasonable precaution.  

The discrepancies between the impact of COVID on people who are vaccinated and people who are not argues for keeping unvaccinated adults out of public spaces where the virus could be spread. Businesses are starting to require vaccines to protect their workers. Roy Cooper announced last week that Cabinet agency employees will either need a vaccine or be required to wear a mask and get regular testing. Biden is mandating proof of vaccines or masking, testing, and distancing regulations for those unvaccinated. Those are reasonable requirements. We need vaccine identification cards so restaurant, bar, and store owners can protect their customers from those who refuse to get vaccinated. 

On another note, Senator Berger has been deriding CDC recommendations, saying that the agency also recommends against eating raw cookie dough. While the messaging in the pandemic has been too muddled, the CDC is an agency that is charged with protecting the public from preventable illness. They recommend against eating cookie dough and other batter because raw flour and eggs can carry E. coli, a bacteria that can make people sick. In the early 1990s, an outbreak at a hamburger joint killed four children and put another 170 people, mostly kids, in the hospital.  

In fact, the CDC is investigating an outbreak of E. coli linked to raw cake batter right now. The chance of getting sick from E. coli after eating cookie dough may be extremely low, but it’s nevertheless a threat. A widespread outbreak would almost certainly have the Senator Bergers of the world deriding the organization if they did not issue a warning. 

What Senator Berger’s ridicule really represents is a problem that seems to affect much of the conservative movement. He clearly lacks critical thinking skills. If he can’t distinguish between a warning against eating something that might cause E. coli and the threat of a disease that has killed more than 600,000 Americans, he really shouldn’t be making policy for North Carolina. He can argue that their warning is overcautious but trying to discredit organizations like the CDC in general is what is driving the continued threat of the pandemic. He’s part of the problem, not part of the solution. 

Finally, I don’t think we should be requiring masks. At this point, common sense should dictate our behavior. Vaccines should be a no-brainer, especially with a spike that is happening almost exclusively among the unvaccinated. Avoid crowded events and venues, especially indoors and where children under 12 are present. Restrict access to unvaccinated people by either requiring proof of vaccine or a recent negative COVID test. If they choose to stay vectors of the virus, that’s their choice, but the rest of us shouldn’t have to deal with them.  Vaccines work and those of us who have them are extremely well protected from the virus and almost certainly protected from serious illness. Live your life and be thankful for modern medicine and science.