Thanks to everyone for reading PoliticsNC during this midterm election cycle. We’ll continue offering commentary and analysis in the aftermath of the election and moving into the legislative session. And, hey, the 2016 cycle will start before you know it. With a US Senate contest and gubernatorial race, not to mention the presidential, North Carolina will continue to be front and center on the national political map.
First, though let’s get through this election. Polls close in North Carolina at 7:30pm. The first results will start trickling in around eight and by nine o‘clock, they will be pouring in.
Watauga County is listed as a bellwether. It’s tracked the state every cycle for the past decade. This year, it’s been highly politicized in a fight over whether or not to locate an early voting site on the campus at Appalachian State. We’ll see how that affects results.
Watch Wake County. If Thom Tillis is keeping it close, he’ll probably have a good night. Obama won it by almost 10 points but lost the state. Wake is also home to the state’s most competitive legislative races this year.
Buncombe County also has two highly competitive legislative races. Obama won the county in 2012 with 55% of the vote. If Republicans can keep it closer than that, Tillis will probably do well.
At the other end of the state, New Hanover, home to the port of Wilmington, has become increasingly Republican. Romney took 52% of the vote two years ago. If Hagan can keep the race close here, she’s probably doing okay.
The 2012 election highlighted how polarized North Carolina has become. Obama won almost all of the urban counties west of I-95 by large margins but still lost the state. The rural-urban divide defines the politics of the state. Hagan needs a large turnout in urban areas that tend to sit out midterm elections. Tillis needs eastern North Carolina to show up in force.
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Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
“Buncombe County also has two highly competitive legislative races. Obama won the county in 2012 with 55% of the vote, but barely won the county in 2008. ”
Actually won Buncombe by a slightly larger margin in 2008 — 56% — than he won it in 2012 — 55%.
Thanks. I’ll fix it. I just remember Buncombe was out late and that the outcome would determine who won the state. I guess it was just the margin of victory. Not the county itself.
Obama won by 17,000 votes in Buncombe and 14,000 statewide. Saw the raw margin was almost the same as the state margin, but the percentage was a lot bigger.
Buncombe has always titled a bit Democratic but the margins, regardless of who won, was always pretty close. Example: when Elizabeth Dole was elected in 2002 she carried Buncombe by exactly ONE vote.
In more recent years Buncombe County has trended more favorably to Democrats voting for Elaine Marshall over Richard Burr in 2010 and for Walter Dalton over Pat McCrory in 2012, both by fairly comfortable margins.