An extraordinary 48 hours in politics

by | Mar 3, 2020 | 2020 elections, Editor's Blog

Joe Biden has had the most extraordinary 48 hours of any politician in recent memory. He entered the South Carolina primary on life support, knowing that a loss or even narrow victory would likely end his campaign. He came out with a stunning victory that instead ended the campaigns of Tom Steyer, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar. 

The establishment endorsements began Saturday night with former Virginia Governor and DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe and Virginia Congressman Bobby Scott supporting Biden. By Monday morning, the endorsements were coming faster than the Biden Campaign could track them. When  Klobuchar announced she was getting out and endorsing Biden, Buttigieg, who had ended his campaign the night before, joined suit. By Monday night, Beto O’Rourke, Illinois Senator Tammy Duckworth and former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid were on board. 

There’s not been enough time between the South Carolina primary and Super Tuesday to do much polling, but Nate Silver of 538 says a Virginia poll shows Biden now has a 20 point lead on Sanders in a state that was tied before Saturday. We’ll find out tonight if the electorate is moving as fast as the establishment toward Biden. We’ll also find out how many people, like me, waited to vote on election day.

People like Klobuchar and Buttigieg apparently learned a lesson from Republicans four years ago. The big field in the 2016 GOP primary fragmented the vote and allowed Trump to win with a plurality of support in state after state. By getting behind Biden and narrowing the field, more centrist Democrats hope they can stop Sanders’ nomination. 

Most of the political establishment , both Democrat and Republican, believes Sanders would lose to Trump. While he’s built support among younger voters, he alienates the older ones who vote at a much higher rate than their younger counterparts. In the suburban swing districts Democrats won in 2018, freshmen Democrats are worried about running with an avowed socialist at the top of the ticket. In North Carolina, Sanders would probably prevent Democrats from winning the conservative districts they need to take back either house of the legislature.

While Democrats can take some solace in consolidating behind Biden, the race isn’t over yet. Sanders still has strong organizations in states across the country and he has a low-dollar donor base that will keep him in the race to the end. Mike Bloomberg and his millions might steal enough votes in places like North Carolina to keep Biden from a majority. And Elizabeth Warren who also has money and organization could prove to be a consensus candidate in a contested convention.

Democrats need to learn the lesson of Sanders, though. His young supporters are the future of the party and they aren’t happy with the state of our country. A Republican friend of mine says they’ll become more conservative when they start getting jobs and seeing how much money comes out of their paychecks for taxes. For this generation, though, it’s not how much they’re paying in taxes. It’s how much they’re paying for student debt, child care and health care. They also believe in the existential threat of climate change even if Republicans don’t. They want a more activist government and the Democratic ticket needs to acknowledge their concerns.

If Biden’s the nominee, his vice presidential pick will be more important than usual. He’ll be over 80 years old at the end of his term if he’s elected. His running mate needs to reflect the increasing diversity of the party as well as its leftward shift. He’ll need to bridge the generational divide by holding older, more moderate voters while keeping the energy in the base alive.  

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