There’s no Republican wave this year. Or at least, there doesn’t appear to be one at this point in time. That doesn’t mean one can’t still come about. Just that it’s not as likely as it was a couple of months ago.

It shouldn’t be surprising if one doesn’t appear, though. Why should it? Waves come about mostly as a reaction to one-party government. Like in 2010. Like in 2006. Like in 1994. Notice a pattern? In each of those cases, one party controlled both the presidency and Congress, and voters punished them.

Who are voters going to punish this year? No one knows. Maybe Obama, whose approval rating is in the cellar and has no strategy – on anything. That’s why Tillis is trying so hard to connect Hagan with Obama. If this election is a referendum on Obama, Hagan is toast.

To that end, Tillis is up with ads saying Hagan votes with Obama 95% of the time. It worked for Kay Hagan against Elizabeth Dole, right? The entire 2008 election was a referendum on President Bush. Stay the course, or change direction? Americans voted overwhelmingly for a change in direction, and elected Democrats up and down the ballot, Kay Hagan included.

Then in 2010, voters said “Whoa! That was a mistake. Turns out we need the GOP to have power in some capacity. Let’s give them the House.” (The GOP pleaded: “Give us the Senate too!” but the voters said: “No. Maybe in 2012, if you’re good.”) There was a real sense of urgency then.

Now, that sense of urgency is gone and most keenly felt only by the staunchest of partisans. These are the kind of people who are motivated to vote Republican because of Harry Reid. But most Americans don’t feel that urgency. Which is to be expected: fear is a great motivator, and with divided government, there isn’t much to fear. Even though there’s a deep sense in America that our government is profoundly screwed up and Congress especially so, this feeling is of apathy. Which, paradoxically, is something to fear in itself.

It’s in this context of apathy – on both sides of the aisle – that this midterm is taking place. It’s anyone’s guess who’s going to be the beneficiary. One thing’s for sure – no Republican wave means Hagan still has a good chance at being reelected. I think she’s already been successfully painted as an Obama clone, and in a state he lost in 2012 the voters are ready to replace her. Tillis just has to prove himself “good enough” and he wins. Hagan’s response: No, he’s not “good enough”. Not even close. In fact, you’d be better off with an Obama clone like me than someone like Tillis. Let me tell you why.”

In North Carolina, reflecting the mood of the nation, it’s going to be about who we dislike less. No wonder people are apathetic.

7 Comments

  1. LMonk

    It is so unfortunate that North Carolina has no leaders. These hatefilled , racist, right-wing minion that are forced upon us serve only to further divide and destroy the fabric of social and civil progress in this state. Kay Hagan is a blue dog democrat, an abject DINO, and Thom Tillis is an overt new-age version of Jesse Helms. With great regret I will cast my vote for the lesser of the two evils because, as a stanch independent, I am well aware of who is causing the most damage to our country……and its NOT the democrats.

  2. Out Here

    Tillis needs a real dog.

  3. Ted Remington

    I continue to be appalled at the number of people in NC who either vote against their own best interests or simply do not vote at all, which is never ever ever in one’s best interest. Apathy is destructive of a democracy, just as destructive as a successful attack by an enemy from without.

  4. feedup republican

    one year the republican party will wake up and get in touch with what the republicans want and not what you want to spoon feed us. You are so far out of touch with main stream america your chasing hard just to get near the real issues. The people feeding your campaign accounts only have one vote the rest of us are the ones that must vote you in office but you have no clue what we want and demand,

    • Thomas Ricks

      The first step of recovery from addiction is honesty. Right now the GOP and libertarians are addicted to LIES, which makes them make mistake after mistake after mistake.

  5. freedommonger

    I’ll hold my nose and vote for the bottom feeder farthest from the bottom.

  6. Someone from Main Street NC

    I guess North Carolina’s Moral Majority protests are as good a sign of apathy as anything…

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