Jim Duncan, Republican candidate for Congress in the Second District, is out with his first ad of the campaign. It’s a bio/introductory ad, and in it he makes clear that he’s not a fan of chickens – at least the ones in Congress. It’s a not-so-veiled dig at his opponent, incumbent Renee Ellmers.

It’s also a good ad. Duncan comes across as very likable. Typically, using animals is a good (and memorable) choice. The sentiment that our representatives in Congress are a bunch of chickens is shared by pretty much every conservative, and this is a gentle way of tapping into it.

Because Ellmers has alienated a huge portion of the Tea Party vote, Duncan would be in very good shape if this was a one-on-one contest. But he’s got to deal with three other people vying to be the conservative alternative to Ellmers. These folks should have drawn straws.

As for these other candidates, businessman Tim D’Annunzio is apparently up with advertising as well. Kay Daly has earned a lot of free media with an outlandish campaign ad and by calling Ellmers a “child abuser.” And Frank Roche has residual name recognition from his last campaign against the congresswoman, where he managed 40% of the vote.

National conservative groups appear to be uniting behind Duncan. It’s a necessary, but obviously not sufficient condition to sending him to Congress this November. Remember, because of our state’s unusual runoff rule, all Ellmers needs to do is to convince 40% of the primary vote that she’s on their side. For an incumbent, that usually means just going through the motions of running a campaign. Even in a primary potentially dominated by supporters of Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, I would give her roughly even odds of getting over that 40% hurdle.

3 Comments

  1. Mojo11

    Calling Ellmers a chicken is needlessly insulting. I’ve never seen a chicken that vacuous.

  2. Progressive Wing

    I say let ALL regressive congressional incumbents like Ellmers be vigorously primaried! If they are conservative to start with, but the extremists in their party still want to force them to defend themselves in the public form, to pledge callous and backwards ideology-based action, andto spend more of their campaign donations before the fall campaign heats up, so be it.

  3. David Scott

    Was the Ellmers-McCarthy tryst just a rumor or could it be used against her among her evangelical base?

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