The Republican primary in North Carolina’s 6th congressional district is getting really nasty. Both Berger and VonCannon attacking each other on the airwaves. But the real question is not who is going to place first on May 6th (that person is Berger Jr.), but whether or not there will be a runoff. Berger’s campaign has pointed to a recent poll which shows him on the cusp of avoiding a runoff.

The poll has pastor Mark Walker in second place, but Berger’s campaign obviously sees millionaire banker Bruce VonCannon as the biggest threat. Those who haven’t should watch the ad Berger ran attacking him. It’s great. What’s so great about it? The tagline, “Sorry Bruce … we’d rather have the jobs back.” You’re left with the impression that VonCannon has asserted that giving the district the privilege to be represented by him in Congress is a viable substitute for all the lost jobs to China. Has VonCannon ever implied that? Of course not. The ad is just brutal.

This is VonCannon’s response, which is basically that Berger accepted a plea bargain from a child rapist, who only served three years. It’s part of a recent trend of candidates attacking lawyer-politicians for being lawyers. (See this RGA ad against Vincent Sheheen in South Carolina, and this ad from the Chamber of Commerce attacking Woody White.) Berger says that VonCannon is a liar, or at least that’s what this campaign press release says. Berger says the offer was withdrawn and the child rapist in question is now serving up to 24 years in prison. The ad battle has caused both candidates to respond with threats of lawsuits. That’s nasty! This could be dangerous for Berger; whenever two candidates get into a brawl, voters tend to support other candidates. Berger and VonCannon might both end up losers in this scenario.

Nonetheless, even if Berger doesn’t clear the runoff threshold, he’s very strongly favored to win the primary. VonCannon has money, but not much else; I don’t think his biography is going to get him any traction in this district. If there’s any candidate who might catch fire, I think it would be Mark Walker, who could cast himself as the Tea Party alternative to Berger. But that’s not saying much.

Most of all, Berger is going to win this thing because he doesn’t have that ONE! BIG! ISSUE! that his opponents can kill him with. The best they can do is dredge up some half-truths from his career as a prosecutor. There’s no legislative record to go by. No personal scandals. He has support from the establishment, but hasn’t alienated the Right. That’s why, for better or for worse, Phil Berger Jr. is going to be the next Congressman from the 6th district.

John Wynne

John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.