Berger Jr. Favored in Second Primary

by | May 12, 2014 | Carolina Strategic Analysis, Congressional Races, Features, US House

The N&O is out with a long profile on Phil Berger, the Senate pro tem. It’s worth a read. But after the legislature is out of session, we’ll be hearing mostly about his son, Phil Berger Jr., who will be involved in a runoff against pastor Mark Walker of Greensboro for the GOP nomination in the 6th congressional district.

Berger finished first in the primary, but he didn’t clear the 40% hurdle. I have to think the fighting between VonCannon and Berger got so bad that it ended up hurting them both. Avoiding a runoff was always going to be a tough task, either way.

Arguably, what resulted was Berger’s worst-case scenario (besides placing second). I’ve written in the past that, of Berger’s adversaries, only Mark Walker stood a chance of catching fire. But that’s more a reflection of the weaknesses of the other major candidates (Matheny and VonCannon). Matheny is more of a moderate in a party that craves ultra-conservatives. And VonCannon’s background was never going to get traction in this district. The primary voters in the 6th district must have agreed; Walker was pretty much the only viable alternative to Berger.

The Greensboro pastor has a real chance for an upset. Walker is a Tea Party type, and as a pastor has credibility with the social conservatives. But, history isn’t on his side. Simply put, insurgents tend to do quite poorly in North Carolina. I don’t know why it is, but for some reason the Tea Party has a very poor track record in this state. This was particularly evident last Tuesday, with Thom Tillis emerging victorious, Ellmers winning against Roche, and Rouzer winning against White. But it was evident before, in Richard Hudson’s primary victory in NC-08 against Scott Keadle, and Richard Burr’s easy path to renomination in 2010. Simply put, the Tea Party is all bark and no bite when it comes to North Carolina. The establishment has been pretty successful here.

While Berger Jr. isn’t really a candidate of the Washington establishment, insurgent candidates like Walker almost never win in NC. For him to succeed in an upset, Berger will have to run a very lethargic campaign; I don’t think he’ll do so. And, as I’ve said before, Berger Jr. hasn’t given the Tea Party any reason to be upset with him. The only chink in his armor is that he can be depicted as the “insider” candidate because of his father, but I doubt that will get much traction. Simply put, candidates like Ellmers, Hudson, and Rouzer were all much more vulnerable on the right than Berger is, and they’re all in, or will be, in Congress. I think Berger Jr. will join them.

The wild card: VonCannon is still pursuing his libel suit against Berger. I don’t think it will go anywhere, but VonCannon can still make things messy for Berger even as a non-candidate.

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