North Carolina-based political analyst John Davis says Phil Berger Jr. is likely to win next Tuesday’s low-turnout Republican runoff. The reason, says Davis, is opponent Mark Walker’s inconsistent position on illegal immigration. With all the charges of “amnesty” thrown around, it’s clear illegal immigration is the #1 issue in this runoff, and Walker is on the wrong side of it.

I’d have to agree with Mr. Davis. Waffling on the issue of immigration is not something conservatives want to hear right now. Nor do they care much for “thoughtful” and “nuanced” position on the matter. Instead, they want red meat, and Berger is giving it to them.

I’ve long maintained that Berger Jr. is favored here, because of support from mainstream Republicans and a lack of deviance from the conservative orthodoxy. The only thing opponents have been able to knock him with effectively is his “insider” status, which in a Republican primary is quite significant. But coming into next week, that consideration is a bit low on the totem pole. Conservatives just want the border secured and the crisis there resolved. They don’t care whether such a position is coming from an insider or an outsider, they just want it done. And that’s why Berger is likely to win this runoff.

Still, given the extremely unpredictable nature of these summertime elections, an upset isn’t out of the question. But it’s less likely than it was a month ago. I’m going to go ahead and say Berger Jr. wins 55-45, with a similar result against Democrat Laura Fjeld in the fall.

John Wynne

John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.