For the first time in many years, I’ve waited until election day to vote. I actually left the house on Saturday morning fully intending to vote, but as I got closer to the polling place, I decide to wait for the South Carolina results. With Biden’s landslide, I’m glad I did.
Up until the end of last week, I intended to vote for Amy Klobuchar. I think she matches up better with Trump than any of the other candidates and she has a record of winning in the type of places Democrats need to win in November. However, after Saturday, I no longer believe she has a path to the nomination anymore.
Tomorrow, I’m voting for Joe Biden. I believe he’s the only candidate who can stop Bernie Sanders and I don’t believe Sanders can beat Donald Trump. I’ve always like Biden. I still have a letter that he sent me in 1987 after I urged him to run for President in 1988.
My vote this year is about defeating Trump. To be honest, I always take electability into account. I grew up in a political family where we were taught coming in second doesn’t matter. Statements are for losers. Governing is for winners. I want my party govern.
I don’t believe Bernie Sanders can win and I doubt I’d be happy with him as a president. I don’t believe he can win because I believe he will alienate the voters Democrats need. While he’ll do very well with the under 30 set, he will struggle to win enough support from the over 50 cohort. Success in general elections depends upon turning out the base and winning enough of the swing voters to be successful.
The coalition Democrats need to win includes younger voters, African Americans and other non-white minorities and enough older white voters to reduce the GOP margin among this group. Sanders appeals to younger voters but South Carolina proves that his support among African American voters is tepid at best. Biden even split younger black voters evenly with him.
Biden is the only fully vetted candidate in the Democratic field. He’s been vice president and run for president twice before. Voters know who he is and his flaws are now baked in. If they haven’t deterred voters yet, they aren’t likely to.
He’s also an incredibly decent man. I believe voters right now want a contrast to Trump that has more to do with temperament more than issues. They’re tired of the childish name-calling, the inherent lack of empathy and the bullying. Biden provides the best contrast to Trump on those measures than anybody in the field.
In contrast, Sanders has yet to face a serious negative campaign, despite what the Bernie Bros and their grievance mentality tell you. The low information voters who will ultimately decide the election will find out that Sanders has been calling himself a socialist for more than 40 years. They will learn that he honeymooned in the Soviet Union and praised the authoritarian state just years before it collapsed in a shambles. They’ll learn that he wants to take away people’s private health insurance and replace it with a government program. While none of that might concern younger voters or old leftists, it scares the bejesus out of a generation of people who were taught to equate socialism with totalitarianism. Sanders’ people can argue that we need to educate those people better, but a presidential campaign is a really lousy vehicle to do that—at least if you want to win.
Sanders may have the right message for the future of the Democratic Party, but he’s the wrong messenger. And for the folks who like the term “framing,” Sanders framing of his message is wrong for swing voters who want stability, not revolution. In a general election, I believe Sanders will lose, even if he, like Clinton, wins the popular vote because of margins in places like California. The path to victory in November runs through a bunch of center-right states like North Carolina. He might not get completely shutout but his chance of winning is slim.
I believe Joe Biden is the only thing standing between Donald Trump and re-election. I’ll proudly go vote for him tomorrow and I urge others to do the same.
Thomas Mills is the founder and publisher of PoliticsNC.com. Before beginning PoliticsNC, Thomas spent twenty years as a political and public affairs consultant. Learn more >
What this country needs now is a steady hand and the lack of drama. While I think we have had some great folks running this time, Biden knows the ropes, having been vice president under Obama, so he has good contacts and knows how things work. As much as I may agree with much that Bernie would like to do, I think we need a calming influence instead of a shouting socialist right now. I went to school in Denmark when I was in high school and would love to have all the benefits citizens had there paid for by their high taxation rate. Their money went back to the people, unlike the U.S. I’m 67 now, living on Social Security and don’t need any more drama in my life!! Just let’s get Trump where he belongs. In Jail!
You changed your mind at the last minute based on late breaking circumstances. That illustrates the problem with early voting. The early voting period is way too long in N.C. and other states. It should be limited to no more than a week or less before Election Day. One of these years, a deceased candidate is going to win an election.
By Jove, I could have written that myself because every word of it is exactly how I feel. I too, like Klobuchar and hope if the Dems win that she will be in the Cabinet. I also think Bloomberg has a lot to offer business wise. I absolutely do not think Bernie can beat Frump.
As a recent (3 years) transplant to NC, I was looking for political news, This condescending rehash of conventional wisdom ain’t it. The Democratic Party desperately needs new energy, not a revival of the walking dead. JB is a far weaker candidate than Mondale in 84, or haven’t you watched him the past couple months?
Mr. Hill,
I wish I were 30 years younger than I am. I would run for the U.S. House and try to hire you to manage my campaign. You are the man. Thank you for your splendid analysis.
Thank you Thomas. I did not wait and voted for decency, class and civility—Pete Buttigieg. I will happily work for Biden.
I have got to agree with you on this one. Removing Trump from office in a free and open election sends a clear message, this country is and will continue to be a democracy based on the simple principle of equality.