Public Policy Polling released a survey of Democratic primary voters in North Carolina that still shows Joe Biden still the frontrunner in the state–barely. He leads Bernie Sander by three points who, in turn, leads Michael Bloomberg by three. It’s clear that Bloomberg’s candidacy is hurting Biden and helping Sanders by watering down Biden’s potential advantage in delegates. 

The poll exposes Bloomberg’s vulnerabilities and where he has cannibalized Biden’s vote. Every Democrat but the former New York has high favorability ratings. Biden has the highest with a +39% favorability margin, 61% to 22%. Buttigieg is at 55% to 22% and Warren is at 56% to 27%. Sanders is at 51% to 34%. Only Bloomberg is underwater. Only 36% find Bloomberg appealing while 43% do not. Bloomberg would clearly have a difficult time exciting the party’s base if he’s the nominee. The more they learn about him, the less they like him.

Bloomberg’s support comes mostly from Biden. He takes 21% of African Americans, most of whom would likely be behind the former vice president if Bloomberg weren’t in the race. Bloomberg takes 25% of the over 65 set and 18% from the 46 to 65 cohort. Without Bloomberg, Biden would be poised for a crushing victory in both Carolinas.  

Sanders has seen no growth over the course of the primary. He was at 18% in early January and is at 20% now, a statistically insignificant increase. On the other hand, Biden’s support has fallen at the same rate Bloomberg’s support has grown. Bloomberg’s plan to thwart Sanders may instead blow up the party and hand him the nomination.  

Bloomberg’s candidacy shows a bigger problem within North Carolina’s Democratic Party. The leaders are out of touch with the broader electorate. Elected official after elected official came out endorsing Bloomberg despite his lack of vetting. Clearly, that’s not where the Democratic electorate is. Mayors and legislators were wowed by his money and charm offensive and now are accomplices in Bloomberg’s disastrous plot to steal the nomination from Biden. It’s a metaphor for the party as a whole as the elites abandoned the working class for the shiny baubles held by corporate America. 

Without Bloomberg, South Carolina and Super Tuesday would probably clear the field for a Biden-Sanders primary that fairly rapidly secured the nomination for the former vice president. Instead, Biden’s the victim of a collective panic among insiders who pay too much attention to social media and not enough to rank-and-file Democrats.

Back in September, after a mediocre fundraising cycle and a couple of bad new cycles, they started looking for a savior to replace Biden. They settled on an unvetted billionaire with little loyalty to any party and a history of problems with women and African Americans, significant parts of the party’s base. Now, their folly is poised to hand the nomination to Sanders or send us to contested convention that may leave the party too divided for victory in November.