Burr Making Play for Suburban Voters

by | Jun 9, 2016 | 2016 Elections, Carolina Strategic Analysis, Features, NC Politics, US Senate | 6 comments

Senator Richard Burr – sometimes seen as the voice of the state’s business community – is now saying that the legislature “botched” HB 2 and that the law was “far too expansive.” The campaign of his opponent, Deborah Ross, says that Burr is changing his tune because he’s worried about his reelection chances. Others are thinking the same thing.

I disagree and for one reason: just as there’s more than one way of skinning a cat, there’s more than one way for a Republican to win statewide. While McCrory has opted for a strategy of turning out the base, Burr is opting for a “suburban strategy”, of persuading moderate voters to his side. I think the Burr campaign sees HB 2 as an opportunity to grow his margin of victory.

Where do the most important swing voters in the state stand? They live in the suburbs of Wake and Mecklenburg counties, and they’re not affiliated with either party. They don’t like HB 2 and think it’s hurting the state. At the same time, they’re not on board with the transgender movement and don’t like Obama’s executive order relating to public schools. They just want the whole thing to go away, and they’re looking for reasonable voices to help solve the problem.

Burr’s comments echo their feelings exactly. He says the law will be changed eventually and that the Charlotte City Council and the legislature better sit down and work out a solution themselves rather than letting the courts decide the matter. By taking this stance, Burr is also taking HB 2 off the table as an issue for his race, forcing Deborah Ross to either agree with him or take a far-left stance. (I wonder which one she’ll opt for?)

Contrast Burr’s strategy with Governor McCrory’s. The governor is pretty much stuck defending HB 2. His team probably hopes that voters will decide the election based on the economy and not the transgender law. Happily for McCrory, it seems like HB 2 is fading as an issue. A lot of the furor has died down and polls show that he’s still very much in the game. The net result of HB 2 is that he’s ceded a lot of suburban voters to Cooper. His ceiling is much lower than Burr’s.

Burr’s stance is part of his “suburban strategy” that involves highlighting his center-right voting record and contrasting that with the far-left record of his opponent, while making a play for the unaffiliated voters that decide elections in this state. In the North Carolina of today, it’s all about who can win those independents. Whoever is seen by the electorate as the least doctrinaire is going to win this Senate race.

6 Comments

  1. A. D. Reed

    “and don’t like Obama’s executive order relating to public schools”

    You’d think a professional political commentator could at least get fundamental facts right. There has been no “Obama’s executive order” relating to public schools, at least in the context of HB2. What there HAS been is a statement of guidance from the Department of Education interpreting the long-established law governing Title IX education funding and gender equality. The department’s statement was made in response to requests from numerous states for “guidance” about what Title IX allows and disallows in terms of equal access to bathroom and locker-room and changing and shower facilities in public school systems.

    No wonder the Republican party is so full of ignorance. Even its commentators seem not to know what they’re commenting about.

  2. Dean Vick

    Do not be fooled by Burr or McCory they are both Trump Republicans. They are as bigoted and racist as Trump but maybe smart enough not to say it out loud the ugliness that Trump is so willing to say. They are happy to have Trump carry that hate flag for them. It is in everyone’s best interest to rid us of all three. Clinton, Cooper and Ross is the only vote.

  3. TY Thompson

    “While McCrory has opted for a strategy of turning out the base, Burr is opting for a “suburban strategy”, of persuading moderate voters to his side. I think the Burr campaign sees HB 2 as an opportunity to grow his margin of victory.”

    He’s an idiot if he thinks that, and he probably does or he would have fired his advisors for suggesting such a strategy. Any suburban votes he does pick up will be more than offset by defections from his Party’s base and rural voters he’s offended either by being pro-sexual predator with his HB2 comments, or because he’s blown off rural concerns. Thom Tillis is no prize, either, but at least he understood that he’d need to overwhelmingly win the rural counties to pull off a win.

  4. Bert Bowe

    I really hope Senator Burr is out of a job this November.

    It’s less than amusing that, of all his offices in the state for constituents to contact, none are remotely near the huge population centers of Chapel Hill, Durham, Raleigh, Cary, Apex: http://www.burr.senate.gov/contact/office-locations

    I made this point directly to Deborah Ross when she spoke at a Fearrington Democrats meeting recently – it would be an excellent campaign issue, as in how can Burr represent all folks without any office near the population center of the state (probably because the center is more left of center).

    Another major issue of course is his reprehensible denial of any Supreme Court nominee hearing…

    Bert Bowe

    Pittsboro (Fearrington), NC

  5. Maurice Murray III

    Burr saying that the law will be changed eventually and that the “Charlotte City Council and the legislature better sit down and work out a solution themselves” is an example of a not taking a position on an issue in an election year. Burr, lacking in resolution, is a career politician who will saying it win the votes of independents.

    McCrory and republicans in the state legislature “botched” the law, many agree. Why won’t Burr say where, specifically, he stands on the issue?

  6. Ebrun

    Last poll I saw (Civitas) had McCrory leading Cooper (48-41) by a wider margin than Burr was leading leading Ross.

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