Ted Cruz had a very good weekend. With the collapse of the Rubio campaign, the Texas senator is in a strong position to win a large share of the anti-Trump vote. That could put him in striking distance of winning North Carolina.
Notably, there have been no recent polls of the state. The last time we got a North Carolina survey, Jeb Bush was still in the race. The results of those polls: Trump +9, Trump +10, Trump +18. If one dismisses the SurveyUSA poll as an outlier and asserts that the anti-Trump vote is starting to coalesce, one can easily see a path to victory for Cruz.
The Trump campaign seems to be aware of the stakes in North Carolina, which is a proportional contest but still one with a lot of delegates at stake. He’s holding two different rallies in the state this week. Curiously, the other campaigns are nowhere to be found, which suggests they don’t see a path to victory or don’t regard the state as especially important when it comes to racking up delegates.
Still, from what I’ve seen Cruz has overwhelming support among conservative activists. He overwhelmingly won the Wake County Republican straw poll and took 59% of the vote at the Civitas Conservative Leadership Conference (Trump took only 16%). Conservative activists don’t necessarily resemble the Republican Party at large, and among unaffiliated voters Trump probably has a commanding lead.
That brings up another point: that North Carolina is only a semi-open primary hurts Trump. As we’ve seen before, Trump’s strongest support lies with a “certain type of Democrat” – white, working class, no college degree, rural voters. There are a lot of those in North Carolina but they won’t be voting for Trump because Democrats can only vote in their own primary. Trump is probably going to have to rely on overwhelming support from people not affiliated with either party.
So, do I think Cruz will win the state? Not at this point. But it’s worth keeping an eye on, especially if Cruz gains more momentum. Don’t let Trump’s victories in our neighboring states fool you – in Virginia he got 35%, in Tennessee and Georgia he got 39%, in South Carolina he got 33%. But that was when the anti-Trump vote was more divided. Now that they’re starting to unite behind one candidate, the result on March 15th in North Carolina might be very interesting.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Kind of astonishing that Ted Cruz is considered a viable presidential candidate.
GOP is shattered beyond repair. Nearly four decades of the Southern Strategy has created a monster – Trump – he’s everything the Republicans have ever wanted – openly racist, rich, and focused on the size of his pee-pee. Way to take the discourse down to the lowest denomination! WTG GOP!
“Still, from what I’ve seen Cruz has overwhelming support among conservative activists.”
Yes, but these conservative activists sometimes scare normal people and children. Especially when these activists start getting all excited and their heads start spinning around like that little girl in the movie “The Exorcist.”
I have not seen a lot of Cruz support. But maybe the activists have been active.
Thanks for making me laugh. (And I do agree.)
John: You must remember that line from My Fair Lady: “He oiled his way across the floor.”
That’s Ted Cruz.
So, John, you apparently think Cruz is levels better, as a leader and human being, than Trump? Really?
The most detested member of the US Senate among his GOP peers in that chamber would be “good” for the party and nation? Really?
A candidate who has already been caught red-handed using dirty tricks against his GOP opponents (putting anti-bible words into Rubio’s mouth in an edited video, sending out Iowa mailers that warn GOP primary voters that their voting records will be made public, and telling Iowa voters that Carson has dropped out “so give me your primary vote”)? Really?
A candidate that has no qualms about damaging the country’s international credit rating and worked actively–on the HOUSE side no less–to shut down the government, costing the nation $24B in economic activity? Really?
Actually, I don’t know why I even bother to question your support/judgment for Cruz as a possible nominee or POTUS. Such indiscretion is what your party is all about.. Republicans are clueless and heartless about the key importance of thoughtful, caring, open-minded, eloquent, and unifying leadership for the USA.
So, whether it’s Trump or Cruz as the nominee, OR whether the GOP establishment denies Trump’s nomination by mischievous backroom rule changes at a brokered convention, those outcomes will only hurt the party in the POTUS race and thereafter.
Here’s hoping that either Trump gets the nomination, or, denied that, that his supporters turn against the GOP and Cruz in droves, leading to a final solution to the “GOP problem” in the USA — the complete unraveling of the National Republican Party.
Goodness gracious John, but you Repub’s just keep digging your hole deeper. Trump may be bad, but Cruz and Rubio are even worse – at least Trump has shown he has a conscience. Truth be told, I will vote for Trump if Hillary the ‘warmonger/free trade queen’ is the Dem’s nominee. However, if Cruz the ‘carpet bombing/serial killer’ is the Repub. nominee, I will be forced to hold my nose and vote for Dillary-doe, the Wall Street candidate of choice.