Remember those folks who claimed that the GOP legislature’s economic policy was a disaster and was going to result in a budget shortfall of $270 million? Well, they were only off by a little. The Fiscal Research Division is reporting that the state will end the year with a $400 million surplus.
In addition, the state has fully paid off its debt to the federal government. Republicans have argued for years now that the growing debt to the feds was hampering economic growth and needed to be dealt with sooner rather than later. It’s been dealt with. Now, the question is: what do we do with all this money?
Republican leaders in Raleigh were jubilant yesterday, wanting to make sure everyone knew about what some termed a vindication of their fiscal policies. On the other side, there are progressives are not about to reverse course and embrace GOP policies. Instead, they’re urging folks to dig a little deeper. Yes, the state has a surplus, but at what cost? Referring to the debt that was repaid by repeal of unemployment benefits, NC Policy Watch’s Rob Schofield tweeted: “This ‘solution’ makes as much sense as paying a mortgage off early by not buying food for your kids.” In other words, the end doesn’t justify the means. Democrats and their allies are ready to argue that the state has achieved fiscal stability on the backs of the middle class and the most vulnerable, while protecting the wealthy and big corporations.
Still, facts are facts, and so far this has been a very good week for Republicans in Raleigh. It’s particularly good news for Governor McCrory, who needs as many accomplishments as he can muster before going before the voters. Cutting up the credit card to the feds and achieving a budgetary surplus are two big accomplishments. This upswing in the state’s fiscal fortunes should lend credence to what McCrory calls a Carolina Comeback.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
Isn’t it odd that the budget surplus is coinciding with the huge budget shortfall that cities are grappling with all over north Carolina. There is where your surplus came from, the state shorted the cities. Charlotte is planing to raise taxes to make up the difference. they cut public education funding as well.
I think that BOA , the former employer of the new state budget director , calls that creative financing LOL…
Your votes are counted by machines that can not ‘by law’ be independently certified by anyone other than the vendor himself – do you not get it yet! There must be a check put in place to verify the machine totals or our elections will continue to surprise the exit polls – which have historically validated accuracy! It is a simple procedure of the ballot being handed back to the voter after it is registered to be given to the exit poll workers for a hand count verification; nothing else can explain how a party as vile and loathed as the right-wing republikans continue to win one improbable victory after another nationwide!!
Eilene, I am with you 100%. There are no real signs that the NC electorate will show enough of any purple or blue stripe in 2016 to change things around. I foresee McCrory, despite his weak persona and record, winning again, and the GOP NCGA majorities being maintained.
I’d feel differently about McCrory if the Dems could offer up a truly dynamic/charismatic candidate–one who would make McCrory pale in comparison–but they can’t. I also would be more optimistic about a change if the Democratic Party was better organized, united, and rostered with strong candidates across the board, but they aren’t so far.
And the GOP will bang the drum over and over about the NC economy being better (although they had very little to do with it), how they lowered taxes (although mainly on corporations and the wealthy), and how they are the true God-fearers. Too many inattentive, church-going NC voters will mindlessly buy into that claptrap and then paint their ballots red.
disgusted, I agree with everything you said… but I’ll bet 2016 is no surprise. Despite every bit of evidence the Democrats can present, the people of this state will still vote to bite of their nose to spite their face. I’m betting that the Republicans will still hold a wide majority, and Governor McHapless will be reelected. It’s a shame.
I don’t know why anyone is surprised that there’s a surplus – of course there is! The Republicans raised taxes! They did it by eliminating deductions and imposing new taxes on things like our electric bills and our movie tickets, all the while crowing about lowering the income tax rate. They tossed most of us a bone by lowering the bottom rate from 6% to 5.75% ( thanks a bunch for the extra $40 a month – where will I spend it all??), while their real goal was lowering the top rate from 7.75% to 5.75% for the wealthiest people in NC. Can we finally put to rest the myth that Republicans are tax cutters? Republicans LOVE taxes – taxes on the poor and middle class. They also have never met a fee they didn’t love, because everyone pays the same fees, and they are all about having a millionaire pay the same $100 fee that a person making $20,000 a year pays! That’s only “fair”, you know!
A case of shooting their wad too early?
A great week for the NCGOP (at least in their money-colored minds). A state revenue “surplus” is announced. They celebrated the paying off of money owed to the feds on unemployment assistance. And now the projected revenue “surpluses” in 2015 and 2016 will trigger further corporate tax cuts—always a cause for GOP giddiness.
But it’s 18 months to the next NCGA elections. And during that time there will be another year of income tax filing by NC citizens. There will also be additional taxes on new car sales, DMV fees, and maybe on car insurance premiums. Those new taxes on our electric bills will continue to hit our monthly household budgets. And there will likely be more announcements that corporations will pay even less taxes.
So, IMO, unless a real and major “Carolina Comeback” actually happens before Nov 2016—one that exceeds “comebacks” in other states, and that takes voters minds off their tax bills and off the state’s big needs on public education, roads and environmental quality/safety, me thinx the GOP will be on the defensive at the ballot box.
If you look at the NCLEG fiscal outlook document, you find this statement: “Personal Income tax collections this April increased significantly above February’s expectations.”
And dig a little further and you’ll see this: “Refunds declined an estimated fifty-seven percent…” What a lovely way to present a tax hike!! That’s some Carolina Comeback, right on the backs of the 99 percent. Brag on NCGOP! The voters know where this “comeback” came from.
Source: http://bit.ly/1bz8c3O
“Facts are facts” – how is it that NCGOP offered a “tax cut” that most people I know never saw and now we have a huge surplus? REPUBLICANS were openly worried about the shortfall just last month, according to this story in Governing.com http://bit.ly/1H2d8wg. There is something really strange going on in accounting…
“Still, facts are facts”. I simply love it when Republicans talk about things they no nothing about. Facts?
Here are some facts, courtesy of NCLEG fiscal research (http://bit.ly/1bz8c3O):
“Personal Income tax collections this April increased significantly above February’s expectations….
“…it appears that the increase [in personal income tax collections] was driven by increases in business income, which is often paid under the Personal Income tax….” (Can someone explain how business income is paid under personal income tax? Not an accountant…)
“Refunds declined an estimated fifty-seven percent…”
In other words, we paid more in taxes to get this “surplus.”
Remember that in Wynne’s world, understanding details (factual details) isn’t important.
What’s important in Wynne’s world is that people “come away with the idea that something happened,” and that the something that happened reflects poorly on Democrats, and reflects well on Republicans.
Well, that answers the question of where the tax increase most North Carolinians got smacked with went.
I’m betting the hundreds of additional dollars of tax that these individual citizens paid will have a much greater impression on them than the $400 million figure will.
Republicans need to spin like a top. Because they have a problem with their tax increase. And folks will experience it next spring too. That will refresh their memories before they vote next year.
Things you are forgetting (or conveniently leaving out), John.
There’s the $109M of that $400M surplus (27%) that will automatically go to pay for another tax cut for corporations. This is triggered by the 2013 tax reform. So what one has here is a surplus built on the backs of the 95% (lower/middle economic class), but then a substantive chunk of it going to give a tax cut to the 5% (corporations and their stakeholders/investors).
There’s the hundreds of thousands of NC’ers who got much less unemployment insurance coverage during some really tough times.
There’s the hundreds of thousands of needy NC’ers who continue to ineligible to receive heath care benefits under a expanded Medicaid program.
Regardless of there being a computed revenue surplus and despite GOP claims of a “Carolina Comeback,” the index noted below finds the state near the bottom of state-by-state rankings in healthcare, in the number of low-income residents w/o a college degrees, in low-wage jobs, in small business ownership numbers (especially in minority communities), in numbers of individuals having bank accounts, and in the number of individual savings accounts (and amounts within those accounts).
http://www.newsobserver.com/…/biz-col…/article19409424.html
If all I’ve listed above bounces off someone’s hardened skin, and that someone would rather fantasize about a “Carolina Comeback,” or gloat about this week’s “good news” for the GOP, or about how good it feels to be “cutting up the credit card to the feds,” that person really needs to question his capacity to empathize with the human condition of others…….