The latest Civitas poll has Governor McCrory leading Attorney General Roy Cooper by 5, 43-38. There’s a very high number of undecided voters, an indication that a lot of people just don’t know what to think about Pat. That means he could easily fall victim to a strong campaign by the Attorney General. Alternatively, brushing up on his image and running a credible campaign based around the “Carolina Comeback” gives him the opportunity to win in 2016 by a comfortable margin.
According to the poll, McCrory is strong in Eastern NC. The Triad, Western NC, and McCrory’s home base of Charlotte are all very close, while Cooper has a strong lead in the Triangle. He’s up by 22 with white voters while also receiving 16% of the black vote. (These crosstabs should be taken with a heavy grain of salt.)
What this means is that McCrory is not necessarily unpopular, just undefined. His situation might be more akin to Richard Burr’s than Bev Perdue’s back in 2011. It also shows that polls still don’t agree when it comes to the governor. In fact, the only thing consistent about them is their inconsistency. John Hood makes note of this in his latest column. While PPP shows the governor with an approval in the 30s, other pollsters give him ratings ranging from +10 to +25. It’s possible that even the governor’s own team aren’t sure about where their guy stands, politically.
This could relate to the increasingly unreliability of polls in general. The 2014 polls were way off. Response rates are down. The future of polling probably lies with the Internet, but that’s a new frontier that nobody is certain how to navigate. In the meantime, we’re going to be getting more polls than ever that are just plain junk. The hard part is finding out which polls they are – maybe all of them.
On a related note, PPP will be doing their monthly poll of North Carolina this weekend. It’ll be interesting to see if they still find McCrory trailing Cooper, as they did last time, or if their results will be closer to the Civitas poll.
John Wynne is the “conservative voice” at PoliticsNC, where he also provides polling analysis and commentary on legislative campaigns. When not writing about politics, he enjoys gardening and listening to opera. Contact: johncwynne@gmail.com.
I know what to think about Pat, but I just won’t use those words on a public forum. In fact, I feel the same way about every gopper in the GA; the sooner they are gone, the better this state will be again. I will vote Roy Cooper in 2016 and I won’t vote for anybody with an (R) next to it on any ballot; the (R) has come to mean Anti-USA.
Yes, cite a “poll” from a very biased CONServative institution that provides links on their site to opinion pieces such as the Confederate flag being a symbol of Southern pride and not racism (“When I see the Confederate flag, I feel a localized version of what I feel when I see the “Star-Spangled Banner. I feel proud, I feel a sense of loyalty and I feel at home.”) and conduct polls (from a New Jersey-based self-described GOP polling firm) with questions such as “Do you think state government court officials, such as a register of deeds, who oppose same sex marriage on religious grounds, should be compelled to perform and certify same sex marriages, even if it clearly violates an individual’s religious convictions?”.
‘Even if it clearly violates an individual’s religious convictions’? Because we all know nonpartisan polling organizations would ask general, unbiased questions like this. Fair and balanced, just like Fox News……..
Just reaffirms my nonbelief in polls of any kind. Thanks for keeping my BS detector in tact, John.
Why are you quoting the Civitas Poll? Their slogan is “North Carolina’s Conservative Voice”. That tell me that ever the numbers are McCrory will be leading. According to them…
So the Civitas’s Polled each other around the right wing think tank water cooler at lunch break
I think most people will and do know what to think about Gov Pat. But they have lives and those lives have other interest currently. You seem very interested in all this so since you seem to be jerking up most of the slack the rest of us will focus on the pat vs cooper next year when it matters.
“What this means is that McCrory is not necessarily unpopular, just undefined.”
Really? Is it at all possible that it is Cooper who is undefined? Why does this poll result lead to the conclusion that voters don’t know about McCrory, a man who’s had years to open mouth, insert foot, say REALLY stupid things, while handing out cookies?
I don’t know a ton about Cooper – just what NCGOP is feeding the news. If McCory leads an ill-defined Democrat by just 5 points in a Civitas poll, the Dems have a fighting chance… IF they capitalize on all the ills that NCGOP has brought to the state. Apparently, NCGOP is about to gut DENR even more… so fracking for all and Duke will NEVER have to clean up the Dan River!
Right now, Cooper is letting NCGOP define him. That’s not good news for NC.
I don’t know of anyone of the educational field that would put Pat McCory back in office. It seems that he should of learned something from Bev. Perdue. When you get the teacher vote by making promises, and never have any intention of following through with them, it doesn’t take to long for us to figure it out. We are smart like that….
ROY COOPER FOR GOVERNOR!!!!
“There’s a very high number of undecided voters, an indication that a lot of people just don’t know what to think about Pat.” “Alternatively, brushing up on his image and running a credible campaign based around the “Carolina Comeback” gives him the opportunity to win in 2016 by a comfortable margin.”
First, it is very possible people do not know what to think of Pat. Heck, he got rolled by the GA in the previous session and does not seem to be doing any better now. He can do things like take the Confederate flag off of license plates, but what has he actually done and how many victories has he gotten at the GA?
Second, just exactly where is the “Carolina Comeback”? Yes, we are coming back from the horrible recession of 2008 but so is the rest of the country. I don’t see where lower taxes for businesses and the wealthy, no regulations, cuts to education, etc have brought in many new jobs–especially to counties that need the jobs the most.
“NY Daily News Poll Says NY Yankees Best Sports Franchise in History”
“Poll of NRA Members Shows Huckabee Leads ALL GOP Candidates”
“Americans for Prosperity (AFP) Survey Shows Bush or Walker Likely GOP Nominee”
“Civitas: Governor Pat Leading Cooper”
The first three bogus headlines and the one Wynne headline above are only offered to emphasize that one should consider the polling and reporting source…..
LOL, no they’re not very good, are they? But two factors may be being overlooked here….his dropping approval from within his own Party isn’t helping nor the fact that he never should have opened his trap about the confederate flag. That’ll cost him with the conservaDems who voted for him last time.
Exactly what I was thinking…